This study revisits the widely used assumptions in long-term asset allocation: the normal distribution of long-horizon returns and the negligible impacts of estimation errors on the expected returns. This study uses the innovative simulation method of Fama and French (2018) for horizons of up to...

This study revisits the widely used assumptions in long-term asset allocation: the normal distribution of long-horizon returns and the negligible impacts of estimation errors on the expected returns. This study uses the innovative simulation method of Fama and French (2018) for horizons of up to...

Investors sometimes have strong convictions that a distinctive economic regime will prevail in the period ahead and therefore would like to form a portfolio that reflects the expected returns, standard deviations, and correlations of assets during such a regime. To do so, they typically isolate...

In den Wirtschaftswissenschaften werden Risiken häufig mit dichotomen Zufallsvariablen modelliert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird an Fallbeispielen untersucht, unter welchen Bedingungen für das Gesamtrisiko eines inhomogenen Portfolios von stochastisch unabhängigen dichotomen Risiken...

We study the temporal behavior of the cross-sectional distribution of assets' market exposure, or betas, using a large panel of high-frequency returns. The asymptotic setup has the sampling frequency of the returns increasing to infinity, while the time span of the data remains fixed, and the...

In den Wirtschaftswissenschaften werden Risiken häufig mit dichotomen Zufallsvariablen modelliert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird an Fallbeispielen untersucht, unter welchen Bedingungen für das Gesamtrisiko eines inhomogenen Portfolios von stochastisch unabhängigen dichotomen Risiken...

In this paper, we derive new, nearly optimal bounds for the Gaussian approximation to scaled averages of n independent high-dimensional centered random vectors X1, . . . , Xn over the class of rectangles in the case when the covariance matrix of the scaled average is non-degenerate. In the case...

We present limit theorems for locally stationary processes that have a one sided time-varying moving average representation. In particular, we prove a central limit theorem (CLT), a weak and a strong law of large numbers (WLLN, SLLN) and a law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) under mild...

An accurate assessment of the risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for populations, authorities and the banking/insurance/reinsurance industry. Koch (2017) introduced a notion of spatial risk measure and a corresponding set of axioms which are well suited to analyze the...

We study the temporal behavior of the cross-sectional distribution of assets' market exposure, or betas, using a large panel of high-frequency returns. The asymptotic setup has the sampling frequency of the returns increasing to infinity, while the time span of the data remains fixed, and the...

An accurate assessment of the risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for populations, authorities and the banking/insurance/reinsurance industry. Koch (2017) introduced a notion of spatial risk measure and a corresponding set of axioms which are well suited to analyze the...

Abstract This is a short survey about asymptotic properties of a supercritical branching process (Z_{n}) with immigration in a stationary and ergodic or independent and identically distributed random environment. We first present basic properties of the fundamental submartingale (W_{n}) , about...

In this paper, we derive central limit and bootstrap theorems for probabilities that centered high-dimensional vector sums hit rectangles and sparsely convex sets. Specifically, we derive Gaussian and bootstrap approximations for the probabilities that a root-n rescaled sample average of Xi is...

In this paper, we derive central limit and bootstrap theorems for probabilities that centered high-dimensional vector sums hit rectangles and sparsely convex sets. Specifically, we derive Gaussian and bootstrap approximations for the probabilities that a root-n rescaled sample average of Xi is...

This paper develops consistency and asymptotic normality of parameter estimates for a higher-order spatial autoregressive model whose order, and number of regressors, are allowed to approach infinity slowly with sample size. Both least squares and instrumental variables estimates are examined,...

Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit...

Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit...

The central limit theorem says that, provided an estimator fulfills certain weak conditions, then, for reasonable sample sizes, the sampling distribution of the estimator converges to normality. We propose a procedure to find out what a "reasonably large sample size" is. The procedure is based...

In this paper, we derive central limit and bootstrap theorems for probabilities that centered high-dimensional vector sums hit rectangles and sparsely convex sets. Specifically, we derive Gaussian and bootstrap approximations for the probabilities that a root-n rescaled sample average of Xi is...

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is an important result in statistics and econometrics and econometricians often rely on the CLT for inference in practice. Even though, different conditions apply to different kinds of data, the CLT results are believed to be generally available for a range of...