This paper presents a novel 5-factor model for agricultural commodity risk premiums, an approach not explored in previous research. The model is applied to the specific cases of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Calibration is achieved using a Kalman filter and maximum likelihood, with data from...

This paper examines the dynamic relationships between speculative activities, commodity returns, and macroeconomic conditions across five sectors compassing 29 commodities. Using weekly data spanning from January 2000 to July 2023, we construct comprehensive measures of commodity market...

In conducting an extensive examination, we scrutinize the efficacy of algorithmic trading strategies applied to Futures CopperMainContinuous in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, utilizing a comprehensive data set spanning from January 2020 to December 2022. To mitigate the potential risk of...

Soybeans, a vital source of protein for animal feed and an essential industrial raw material, are the most traded agricultural commodity worldwide. Accurate price forecasting is crucial for maintaining a resilient global food supply chain and has significant implications for agricultural...

The objective of this study is to examine the return interconnectedness and asymmetric spillover effects in global commodity futures markets, with a focus on the impact of contagion. A competent asymmetric time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model was employed for highly...

This study examines market and future-level sentiment in the Chinese agricultural futures market, distinguishing between contagious and idiosyncratic sentiment. Our analysis reveals that agricultural future-level sentiment is significantly affected by market-level sentiment and domestic stock...

This paper assesses the impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on the grain futures market. We rely on counterfactual evaluation techniques and detailed futures price series to estimate how corn and wheat futures prices and historical volatility responded to the Grain Deal enforcement,...

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and...

Commodity price co-movements significantly impact investment decisions. High correlations constrain portfolio diversification and limit risk mitigation potential. While international markets often exhibit strong price linkages, understanding national-level dynamics is crucial for effective...

The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of volatility dynamics in commodity returns, such as gold and cocoa, as well as the financial market index S&P500. It provides a comprehensive overview of each model's efficacy in capturing volatility clustering, asymmetry, and long-term...

Previous studies on commodity price bubbles mainly focused on futures markets and ignored the performance of spot markets. Using the price data for corn and soybeans in China, this study identifies the exact bubble dates for the futures and spot markets, and finds asynchronous price bubbles...

The magnitude and sign of risk premiums provide relevant information on the structure of a given market. However, there is no consensus on commodity markets if there is a risk premium, and if so, if it is positive or negative. In addition, in recent years, there has been a discussion on the...

Skewness is one of the less-known but practical measures from statistics that can be used in trading. It is defined as a measure of the asymmetry of the probability distribution of a random variable around its mean. Financial mathematics and most quantitative models assume some kind of symmetric...

The flying condor is an exchange traded option trading pattern developed for dynamically changing patterns. It uses 3D logic, i.e. it is built with legs that are offset in time and space. It breaks with the tradition that the PnL pattern taken at market entry is the result at exit, as the...

In this article, we examine performance persistence and the implied volatility smile of the commodity options contracts. We examine contracts of wheat, corn, live cattle, soybean oil, and lean hog. Hedge funds use options and futures in terms of commodities to hedge market risk. We compare the...

This article analyses and discusses the update of the European Market Infrastructures Regulation (EMIR) as a consequence of the 2021-2023 energy crisis. More specifically, this article focuses on the modification of the margin requirements of central counterparties and more specifically on the...

The article aims to provide an overview of the derivatives market, with a focus on forward and futures contracts. In addition to general concepts, the study explores practical concepts such as daily settlement, margin requirements, basis, and price formation, with current examples from the...

Despite frequent debates on commodity prices, limited attention has been paid to the processes, strategies and practices through which commodity prices are 'made' and related institutions and infrastructures. 'World commodity prices' are not passively 'discovered' but are outcomes of contested...

This paper presents and explains the newly rediscovered and transcribed daily market gold price from 1919-1968 for the world's main gold market during the period, the London Gold Fixing Auction. The paper highlights several novel features previously not discussed in the literature, such as gold...

In March 2018, the US used an immense trade deficit as an excuse to provoke trade friction with China. This study uses the EGARCH model and event study methods to study the impact of the major risk event of Sino-US trade friction on soybean futures markets in China and the United States. Results...