This paper examines the dynamic relationships between speculative activities, commodity returns, and macroeconomic conditions across five sectors compassing 29 commodities. Using weekly data spanning from January 2000 to July 2023, we construct comprehensive measures of commodity market...

This paper presents a novel 5-factor model for agricultural commodity risk premiums, an approach not explored in previous research. The model is applied to the specific cases of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Calibration is achieved using a Kalman filter and maximum likelihood, with data from...

Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index...

A robust model for natural gas prices should simultaneously capture the observed prices of both futures and options. While incorporating a seasonal factor in the convenience yield of the spot price effectively replicates forward curves, it proves insufficient for accurately modelling the options...

The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of volatility dynamics in commodity returns, such as gold and cocoa, as well as the financial market index S&P500. It provides a comprehensive overview of each model's efficacy in capturing volatility clustering, asymmetry, and long-term...

This study examines market and future-level sentiment in the Chinese agricultural futures market, distinguishing between contagious and idiosyncratic sentiment. Our analysis reveals that agricultural future-level sentiment is significantly affected by market-level sentiment and domestic stock...

The objective of this study is to examine the return interconnectedness and asymmetric spillover effects in global commodity futures markets, with a focus on the impact of contagion. A competent asymmetric time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model was employed for highly...

This paper assesses the impact of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on the grain futures market. We rely on counterfactual evaluation techniques and detailed futures price series to estimate how corn and wheat futures prices and historical volatility responded to the Grain Deal enforcement,...

Commodity price co-movements significantly impact investment decisions. High correlations constrain portfolio diversification and limit risk mitigation potential. While international markets often exhibit strong price linkages, understanding national-level dynamics is crucial for effective...

Previous studies on commodity price bubbles mainly focused on futures markets and ignored the performance of spot markets. Using the price data for corn and soybeans in China, this study identifies the exact bubble dates for the futures and spot markets, and finds asynchronous price bubbles...

Soybeans, a vital source of protein for animal feed and an essential industrial raw material, are the most traded agricultural commodity worldwide. Accurate price forecasting is crucial for maintaining a resilient global food supply chain and has significant implications for agricultural...

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and...

In conducting an extensive examination, we scrutinize the efficacy of algorithmic trading strategies applied to Futures CopperMainContinuous in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, utilizing a comprehensive data set spanning from January 2020 to December 2022. To mitigate the potential risk of...

It is widely observed that primary commodity prices comove. A parallel literature asserts that correlation risk matters for financial returns. Our novel study connects these topics and presents evidence that commodity correlation risk is both non-constant and important for returns. We reconsider...

J.M. Keynes coined the term normal backwardation, a situation where a futures price for a particular expiry month is less than the expected spot price for that month. He argued hedgers pay speculators a premium for assuming price risk. We study the behavior of commodity futures before and since...

This study investigates the intraday realized volatility (RV) forecasting of gold futures in China. To predict the RV in the last half an hour before the day trading close (LH), we decompose the whole trading period into several intervals. RVs in day trading intervals can predict the RV in LH,...

Financial and operational supply chain risks are often managed independently, by managers in different business units and with widely-varying viewpoints. Yet, differences in incentives often result in a mismatch in priorities and processes. In 2008, BMW established the Raw Material Management...

Recently enacted Rules on commodity arbitration of the Belgrade Arbitration Center (BAC Commodity Arbitration Rules) represent the first set of arbitration rules in Serbia designed for commodity arbitrations. BAC Commodity Arbitration Rules were enacted in order to serve the needs of the...

This article analyses and discusses the update of the European Market Infrastructures Regulation (EMIR) as a consequence of the 2021-2023 energy crisis. More specifically, this article focuses on the modification of the margin requirements of central counterparties and more specifically on the...

The article aims to provide an overview of the derivatives market, with a focus on forward and futures contracts. In addition to general concepts, the study explores practical concepts such as daily settlement, margin requirements, basis, and price formation, with current examples from the...

We use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report to investigate the trading behaviour of traders in 12 commodity futures markets. We find that commercial traders are contrarian, consistent with the prevalence of short hedgers, while non-commercial traders follow...

This study discusses a pricing framework for perpetual futures in collection-based Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) which represent unique digital assets in a low liquidity and high price volatility environment. The collection could be viewed as the broad family to which an NFT belongs and the NFTs...

This paper examines volatility transmission between the spot and futures bitcoin markets. We use daily series over a sampling period that spans from December 2017 to September 2022. We examine several events that spread severe risk in cryptomarkets, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,...