Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...

Because the use of p-values in statistical inference often involves the rejection of a hypothesis on the basis of a number that itself assumes the hypothesis to be true, many in the scientific community argue that inference should instead be based on the hypothesis' actual probability...

Riordan and Sappington (JET, 1988) show that in an agency relationship in which the agent’s type is correlated with a public ex post signal, the principal may attain first best (full surplus extraction and efficient output levels) if the agent is faced with a lottery such that each type is...

Riordan and Sappington (JET, 1988) show that in an agency relationship in which the agent's type is correlated with a public ex post signal, the principal may attain first best (full surplus extraction and efficient output levels) if the agent is faced with a lottery such that each type is...

Cross impact analysis (CIA) consists of a set of related methodologies that predict the occurrence probability of a specific event and that also predict the conditional probability of a first event given a second event. The conditional probability can be interpreted as the impact of the second...

Despite declines in US smoking rates tobacco remains among the leading causes of preventable deaths in the US and is directly linked to chronic and mortal diseases including cancers and heart disease. With a focus on youth smoking behaviors, this paper considers contributory influences for two...

The concept of conditional probability is fundamental because econometrics regression models are probabilistic. Here, we consider the conditional probabilities to a certain vector, which would be possible to define more generally to the standard deviation ?.

There are several established methodologies for generating synthetic populations. These include deterministic reweighting, conditional probability (Monte Carlo simulation) and simulated annealing. However, each of these approaches is limited by, for example, the level of geography to which it...

This paper presents ideas for improved conditional probability assessment and improved expert systems consultations. It cautions that knowledge engineers may sometimes be imprecise when capturing causal information from experts: their elicitation questions may not distinguish between causal and...

Livestock farming significantly contributes to income generation and the improvement of the livelihoods of the rural poor in the Northern Cape. However, profitability and sustainability in the sector are constrained by low returns to investment due to a number of factors. The study investigates...

We study type spaces where a player's type at a state is a conditional probability on the space. We axiomatize these spaces using conditional belief operators, examining three additional axioms of increasing strength. First, introspection, which requires the agent to be unconditionally certain...

<Para ID="Par1">Starting from a likelihood function and a prior information represented by a belief function, a closed form expression is provided for the lower envelope of the set of all the possible “posterior probabilities” in finite spaces. The same problem, removing the hypothesis of finiteness for the...</para>

The purpose of this article is to study the three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) generalized exponential (GE) distribution and examine its suitability in probabilistic earthquake recurrence modeling. The GE distribution shares many physical properties of the gamma and Weibull...

The growing movement of people and goods that started in the closing years of the twentieth century has increased the possibility of the accidental or intentional introduction of biohazards that can affect agricultural production in the United States. This study examines the ex ante decision...

Suppose that we rank-order the conditional probabilities for a group of subjects that are provided from a Bayesian network (BN) model of binary variables. The conditional probability is the probability that a subject has a certain attribute given an outcome of some other variables and the...

By examining the conditional probabilities of price movements in a popular US stock over different high-frequency intra-day timespans, varying levels of trend predictability are identified. This study demonstrates the existence of predictable short-term trends in the market; understanding the...

To elucidate allometric scaling in complex systems, we investigated the underlying scaling relationships between typical three-scale indicators for approximately 500,000 Japanese firms; namely, annual sales, number of employees, and number of business partners. First, new scaling relations...

Due to its simplicity and familiarity, the Gaussian copula is popular in calculating risk in collaterized debt obligations, but it imposes asymptotic independence such that extreme events appear to be unrelated. This restriction might be innocuous in normal times, but during extreme events, such...

The properties of wind persistence are an essential parameter in carrying out a complete analysis of possible sites for a wind farm. This parameter can be defined as a measure of the mean duration of wind speed within a given interval of values for a concrete site. In this study the persistence...

Wind speed persistence is a measure of the mean wind speed duration over a given period of time at any location. This definition implies that wind speed persistence means a positive serial correlation in time series. The wind speed persistence provides useful information about the general...

The survival probability term structure has become the main concept in modeling credit risk for pricing, risk management, and investment decisions. The Kth-to-default contract is not only a relatively liquid credit risk instrument but also a vehicle that credit rating agencies employ to...

For the analysis of square contingency tables with nominal categories, this paper proposes two kinds of models that indicate the structure of marginal inhomogeneity. One model states that the absolute values of log odds of the row marginal probability to the corresponding column marginal...

In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheidstate,theIsraelDefenseForcesdeliberatelytargetPalestiniancivilians),coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from...

Harsányi introduced the concept of type space in an intuitive way. Later Heifetz and Samet formalized it. Harsányi used conditional probabilities to model the beliefs of the players, Heifetz and Samet avoided using conditional probabilities formally. We show that in both cases the concept of...

The daily Hang Seng index in the Hong Kong stock market has been analyzed in this paper. Two kinds of sign sequences as given conditions have been used to predict the future price movements. One is the parameter of multifractal spectrum Δf based on the indexes recorded in every minute, and the...