This paper employs the opening of the first international telegraph between London and Paris on 13 November 1851 as a unique event that enabled a virtually instantaneous information exchange between the largest financial centers. Before this opening, a London currency speculator comparing the...

This paper employs the opening of the first international telegraph between London and Paris on 13 November 1851 as a unique event that enabled a virtually instantaneous information exchange between the largest financial centers. Before this opening, a London currency speculator comparing the...

This paper examines how carry trade activity affects the transmission of monetary policy in currency markets. It analyzes a set of developed and emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar appreciates in response to a conventional monetary policy shock but depreciates to...

By examining the connectedness of carry trade currency with stock, foreign exchange (forex), and commodity markets, the paper investigates the extent to which shocks in capital flows driven by interest-rate differentials affect financial markets. Following the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz...

This paper comprehensively examines the risk-return relation of cryptocurrency carry trade using realistic borrowing and lending interest rates. We find significant violations of the uncovered interest rate parity in the cryptocurrency market. The cross-sectional carry trade strategy yields an...

This working paper is written by Pasquale Della Corte (Imperial College London) and Aleksejs Krecetovs (Imperial College London).We empirically study the relationship between currency excess returns and current account uncertainty, measured as forecast dispersion. We find that investment...

Bond carry trading is a popular strategy among investors who are looking for higher returns while minimizing risks. The basic premise of this strategy is to buy a high yield bond and sell a low yield bond in the same currency and sector, with the intention of capturing the difference in yield,...

This paper comprehensively examines the risk-return relation of cryptocurrency carry trade using realistic borrowing and lending interest rates. We find significant violations of the uncovered interest rate parity in the cryptocurrency market. The cross-sectional carry trade strategy yields an...

We compare the effects of the US macro news on the exchange rates of carry trade target currencies and safe-haven currencies in the post-GFC period. Relying on the data of 5-min changes of exchange rates, we find significant responses of currencies to the surprises of the US macro news. The...

This working paper was written by Yin-wong Cheung (University of California, Santa Cruz) and XingWang Qian (University of California, Santa Cruz).Motivated by the observed international reserve hoarding behavior in the post-1997 crisis period, we explore the Mrs Machlup’s wardrobe hypothesis...

This article examines speculative attacks against the Greek drachma from 1960 until the adoption of the euro in 2001. The analysis is preceded by a historical review. Subsequently, using monthly data on a plethora of economic, financial and political variables, a range of Limited Dependent...

This paper presents evidence that currency episodes display heterogeneity in terms of their evolution, their impact on the inflicted economy and their links with financial, political and macroeconomic fundamentals. Limited-dependent variable models for ordered and unordered outcomes along with...

Recent academic and practitioner attention has focused on currency momentum. In this paper we replicate technical trading rules to assess their relationship with momentum. From an investment perspective, the average out-of-sample pre-transaction cost Sharpe ratio of technical trading rules is...

Purpose - The study considers time-varying risk premium in investigating the capability of technical analysis (TA) to predict and outperform a buy-hold strategy in Bitcoin exchange rate returns. Design/methodology/approach - The study tests the technical trading rule of fixed moving average...

Both empirical and theoretical studies suggest that currency attacks can occur even in a fixed exchange rate regime with sound fundamentals. Can mechanisms be designed to prevent such currency attacks? To address this question, we first need a theory of currency crisis. I argue that such a...

To what extent are currency crashes linked to sovereign defaults? Measuring their relationship is notoriously difficult because these are rare disaster events. I take a novel approach. I learn about the risk-neutral distribution of rare currency crushes from prices of far out-of-the-money (FOM)...

The plethora of currency crises around the world has fueled many theories on the causes of speculative attacks. The first-generation models focus on fiscal problems. The second-generation models emphasize countercyclical policies and self-fulfilling crises. In the 1990s, models pinpoint to...

This paper develops an interpretation of the Asian meltdown focused on moral hazard as the common source of overinvestment, excessive external borrowing, and current account deficits. To the extent that foreign creditors are willing to lend to domestic agents against future bail-out revenue from...

Kang et al. (2020) find cross-sectional evidence that short- and long-term variation of position changes are driven by liquidity demand of noncommercials and hedging demands of commercials in commodity futures markets. In this paper, we find the commercials' hedging demands drive both short-term...

This paper examines the capital flow experience of transition economies who are also prospective EU members with a view to shedding light on the likely problems they might encounter with exchange rate policy in the run up to euro area membership. We show that they have been experiencing fairly...

Given the high fluctuations of the general price level, the importance of investment, and accessing sufficient financial resources, we examine the effects of monetary policy on the nominal (Inflation) and real (Investment) sectors of a developing economy, like Iran, through the channel of the...

The foreign exchange (FX) market is considered to be the largest and presumably most liquid financial market in the world. We show that even in this market exposure to liquidity risk commands a non-trivial risk premium of up to 3.6% per annum. In particular, systematic and currency-specific...

Bolivia has achieved noteworthy success over the past 15 years in raising incomes, reducing poverty, and maintaining macroeconomic stability by deploying commodity revenues to finance transfers, public investment, and state-led development, using an exchange rate peg as a policy anchor. However,...

This paper shows that the eurozone payment system does not effectively protect member states from speculative attacks. Suspicion of a departure from the common currency induces a terminal outflow of central bank money in weaker member states. TARGET2 cannot inhibit this drain but only protects...

This paper analyzes the sustainability of fixed exchange rates by extending the Barro-Gordon framework to a fully dynamic context in which the level of a state variable (in this case debt) determines the payoffs available to the government at each point in time. The model yields the following...

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we...

In this paper we develop a general equilibrium model of exchange rates where expectations of future variables directly affect the current exchange rate through an 'asset-market' term. This term, which results from the assumptions of incomplete asset markets and segmented product markets, does...

First generation models of speculative attacks show that apparently random speculative attacks on policy regimes can be fully consistent with rational and well-informed speculative behavior. Unfortunately, models driven by a conflict between exchange rate policy and other macroeconomic...

Existing models of contagious currency crises are summarized and surveyed, and it is argued that more weight should be put on political factors. Towards this end, the concept of political contagion introduced, whereby contagion in speculative attacks across currencies arises solely because of...

We argue that allowing for the possibility of a self-fulfilling panic helps in understanding several features of the recent Mexican crisis. Self-fulfilling expectations became decisive in generating a panic only after the government ran down gross reserves and ran up short-term dollar debt. We...

We discuss the foreign currency forward premium puzzle in the context of 20 internationally tradable emerging market currencies. We find that since the late 1990s the broad basket of emerging market currencies has provided significant equity-like excess returns against a number of major market...

If Stage Three of EMU starts on January 1, 1999, transition issues remain on two time scales. Until July 1, 2002, national currencies and the euro co-exist as legal tender. We argue that intra-EMU currency risk exists in principle during that period, but that no EMU member can be forced out...