Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has adeptly navigated a balancing act between Russia and the West, leveraging its position as a credible mediator. However, Turkey's geo-economic vulnerabilities and strong economic ties with the West have made this approach untenable,...

The foundation of the European Union-Turkey economic and trade relations lies in the Customs Union and more broadly in the bilateral preferential trade framework, established in December 1995. For over nearly three decades, this partnership has played a pivotal role in integrating Turkish...

Regions worldwide are increasingly establishing customs unions, yet their impact on trade remains uncertain. This study investigates the influence of the East African Community (EAC) customs union on intra-regional trade performance, specifically assessing whether customs unions affect exports,...

This paper explores the ramifications of customs unions (CUs) for multilateral trade cooperation within an economic environment characterized by trade-volume volatility and in a competing-exporters framework. We demonstrate that the parallel formation of different CUs leads to a gradual but...

We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing US tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from −0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in...

Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries are under pressure to commit themselves to sustainable environmental activities. This study employed data from 2007 to 2021 using quantile regression to determine the heterogenous effects of industrialisation on environmental degradation in SACU...

The 2022 e-Customs Annual Progress Report is the fifteenth report prepared pursuant to Article 12 of the e-Customs Decision (Decision 70/2008/EC), under which the Member States are required to report on the progress made towards coordinating the implementation of the e-Customs initiative. The...

External shocks disrupt the effectiveness of the central bank in stabilising prices. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of exchange rate movement on consumer prices in the SACU region for the period from 1990 to 2021 (31 observations for each nation). To achieve this, panel...

I examine whether suppliers modify trading strategies upon their customers’ unionization. I demonstrate that when customers unionize, suppliers experience negative stock returns and rely less on the unionized customers for sales. Results are robust to alternatively using a regression...

I examine whether suppliers modify trading strategies upon their customers’ unionization. I demonstrate that when customers unionize, suppliers experience negative stock returns and rely less on the unionized customers for sales. Results are robust to alternatively using a regression...

This study has been carried out by The Center for Integration Studies of the Eurasian Development Bank. It considers the current opportunities for applying the global experience accumulated by regional integrative alliances to the development of intensive economic cooperation between the Customs...

This paper evaluates a possible US-SACU (Southern African Customs Union) free trade agreement as part of a US approach to new preferential trade agreements characterized by the term competitive liberalization.' This is the idea that competition among large countries (US/EU) to negotiate...

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the most unequal region in the world. While there has been some progress in recent years, inequality has remained almost stagnant in the most unequal countries. Using an innovative framework, this report provides a systematic and comprehensive...

The Act of Union (1707) unified England and Scotland politically and economically, formally establishing the United Kingdom of Great Britain, and a customs union throughout the island of Britain. In this paper, we examine the impact of union on British market integration using wheat prices from...

The report focuses on the effect of Kyrgyzstan’s possible accession to the Customs Union (CU) and Single Economic Space (SES) on the flow of labour resources, the volume of cash remittances, labour market conditions and professional education and training in this country. For that purpose the...

The implementation of the European Union’s (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU’s trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing decarbonisation process of European economic...

Deterioration of Turkey-EU political relations and stalemate in the accession process raise the ques-tion what (if any) impact does it have on economic cooperation. The paper analyses and evaluates data of three crucial pillars of the economic cooperation: The Customs Union, the European...

AI holds the promise of being able to analyse large amounts of data faster and more reliably than humans can. So is it also possible to use AI systems to analyse information relevant to diplomatic negotiations in a way that adds significant strategic value? We explore this question through two...

This concluding chapter, rather than summarize the findings of the preceding ones, aims at shedding some light on what may lie ahead for MERCOSUR, looking at three different challenges: the role and functioning of the MERCOSUR Parliament; the enlargement process started with the accession of...

I examine whether suppliers modify trading strategies upon their customers’ unionization. I demonstrate that when customers unionize, suppliers experience negative stock returns and rely less on the unionized customers for sales. Results are robust to alternatively using a regression...

Like most decisions about Brexit, the choice of future customs arrangements is about getting the trade-offs right. Remaining in a customs union with the EU would not just prevent disruptive border checks. It would also allow tariff-free trade to continue after the UK left the Single Market, and...

A customs union with the EU would come with significant costs to the UK’s economic, trade and foreign policies. Such an arrangement would also fail, by itself, to eliminate trade friction with the EU. To do so would also require alignment with the Single Market rules for goods. A customs union...

We study the implications of customs union formation for multilateral tariff cooperation. We model cooperation in multilateral trade policy as self-enforcing, in that it involves balancing the current gains from deviating unilaterally from an agreed-upon trade policy against the future losses...

Until NAFTA, analyses of preferential trading arrangements began by assuming a customs union with a common external tariff, and the differences between customs unions and free trade agreements (FTAs) have been little analyzed. This paper points to some of the differences between FTAs and customs...

The authors predict that the Continental Customs Union (CCU) will injure some infant industries in smaller Member States and that, if not properly designed, the small States which have wholeheartedly embraced the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement may actually hold little.The...

The dramatic implosion and regionalization of international trade during the 1930s has often been blamed on the trade and foreign exchange policies that emerged in the interwar period. We provide new evidence on the impact of trade and currency blocs on trade flows from 1928 1938 that suggests a...

This paper looks empirically into the behavior of multinational firms in international oligopolistic markets with trade balance constraints. I show how a particular form of non-tariff barrier applied at the firm level can lead to an increase in trade flows in the presence of intra-firm strategic...

This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on Customs Unions (or other regional trade agreements) may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of...

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is a Free Trade Area (FTA) regional trade agreement in Africa. Currently, Ethiopia is negotiating to join COMESA FTA. This study assesses the impact of three regional trade arrangements, COMESA FTA, customs unions, and the European...

By measuring the effects of forming and joining a regional integration bloc using an augmented structural gravity model, this paper finds that the East African Community (EAC) and EAC Customs Union have significantly enhanced Tanzanian trade into EAC markets. Kenya has continued to be the main...

We study, theoretically and empirically, how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins when they form Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically lower preferential margins when the bloc takes the form of a free trade area...

This study provides an ex ante short-run impact analysis of tariff liberalisation in the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) customs union regarding tariff revenue and import values. As with other customs union on...