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Year of publication
Subject
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Early warning system 2,142 Frühwarnsystem 2,123 Financial crisis 528 Finanzkrise 527 Theorie 396 Theory 396 Bankenkrise 369 Banking crisis 367 Risikomanagement 331 Risk management 327 Prognoseverfahren 315 Forecasting model 313 Welt 285 World 284 Currency crisis 266 Währungskrise 263 Deutschland 235 Germany 234 Economic indicator 226 Wirtschaftsindikator 226 Bankrisiko 163 Bank risk 161 Systemic risk 148 early warning system 146 Systemrisiko 144 Bank 135 Insolvency 131 Insolvenz 131 Kreditrisiko 116 Credit risk 114 EU countries 107 EU-Staaten 107 Bankenaufsicht 102 Krisenmanagement 101 Banking supervision 99 Emerging economies 99 Schwellenländer 98 Crisis management 97 Schätzung 97 Estimation 96
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Online availability
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Free 874 Undetermined 355 CC license 32
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 1,234 Article 1,049 Journal 7
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 705 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 705 Graue Literatur 443 Non-commercial literature 443 Working Paper 387 Arbeitspapier 357 Aufsatz im Buch 271 Book section 271 Hochschulschrift 209 Thesis 174 Bibliografie enthalten 76 Bibliography included 76 Collection of articles of several authors 37 Sammelwerk 37 Case study 34 Fallstudie 34 Conference paper 22 Konferenzbeitrag 22 Aufsatzsammlung 21 Handbook 20 Handbuch 20 Article 13 Konferenzschrift 8 Ratgeber 8 Guidebook 6 Amtsdruckschrift 5 Conference proceedings 5 Government document 5 Lehrbuch 4 Reprint 4 Textbook 4 Collection of articles written by one author 3 Sammlung 3 Systematic review 3 Übersichtsarbeit 3 Accompanied by computer file 2 Amtliche Publikation 2 Elektronischer Datenträger als Beilage 2 research-article 2 Annual report 1
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Language
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English 1,578 German 598 Undetermined 85 Spanish 16 French 5 Polish 4 Russian 4 Romanian 2 Dutch 1 Portuguese 1 Swedish 1
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Author
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Sarlin, Peter 23 Dreger, Christian 17 Oet, Mikhail V. 17 Ong, Stephen J. 15 Peltonen, Tuomo 15 Detken, Carsten 14 Gramlich, Dieter 14 Knedlik, Tobias 14 Kuper, Gerard H. 14 Drehmann, Mathias 13 Karim, Dilruba 13 Kholodilin, Konstantin A. 11 Savona, Roberto 11 Stein, Jerome L. 11 Jacobs, Jan 10 Menkhoff, Lukas 10 Šmídková, Kateřina 10 Alessi, Lucia 9 Becker, Axel 9 Beckmann, Daniela 9 Candelon, Bertrand 9 Davis, E. Philip 9 Fratzscher, Marcel 9 Herrera, Helios 9 Krystek, Ulrich 9 Ordoñez, Guillermo 9 Rohrbeck, René 9 Schweinitz, Gregor von 9 Stremmel, Hanno 9 Trebesch, Christoph 9 Bongini, Paola 8 Boonman, Tjeerd M. 8 Bussière, Matthieu 8 Comelli, Fabio 8 Ferri, Giovanni 8 Kholodilin, Konstantin 8 Mayes, David G. 8 Schmieder, Christian 8 Tölö, Eero 8 Vezzoli, Marika 8
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Institution
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) 24 International Monetary Fund 13 European Commission / Joint Research Centre 11 Internationaler Währungsfonds / Monetary and Capital Markets Department 8 International Monetary Fund / Monetary and Capital Markets Department 7 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 7 World Bank Group 7 National Bureau of Economic Research 6 Compagnie française d'assurance pour le commerce extérieur 5 EconWPA 5 European Central Bank 5 Internationaler Währungsfonds 4 Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Government of the Philippines 4 Committee of the Regions 3 European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction 3 FAO 3 HAL 3 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 3 Asian Development Bank 2 C.F. Müller Verlag 2 Denkfabrik <Frankfurt, Main> 2 European Communities. 2 Institut für Weltwirtschaft (IfW) 2 Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) 2 Internationaler Währungsfonds / Monetary and Financial Systems Department 2 OECD 2 AMACOM 1 Access Economics Pty Limited <Canberra> 1 Banco Central do Brasil 1 Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking (CARFIB), Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti 1 Centre européen des régions (CER) 1 Committee of the Regions / Commission for Citizenship, Governance, Institutional and External Affairs 1 DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) 1 Deutsche Bank Research 1 Deutsche Rohstoffagentur 1 Deutsches Aktieninstitut 1 Edinburgh Institute of Governance 1 European Commission / Directorate-General for Enterprise 1 European Environment Agency 1 European Union Institute for Security Studies 1
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Published in...
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IMF working papers 43 IMF Working Papers 23 SpringerLink / Bücher 20 Europäische Hochschulschriften / 5 19 Working paper series / European Central Bank 19 Journal of financial stability 18 IMF Working Paper 17 ECB Working Paper 16 Szenarioanalysen und Stresstests in der Bank- und Versicherungspraxis : regulatorische Anforderungen, Umsetzung, Steuerung 15 IMF country report 14 IMF staff country report 14 Journal of banking & finance 14 IMF working paper 13 CESifo working papers 10 Journal of international money and finance 10 KSI : Krisenprävention, Sanierungsberatung, Insolvenzmanagement 10 Frühwarnindikatoren und Krisenfrühaufklärung : Konzepte zum präventiven Risikomanagement 9 Gabler Edition Wissenschaft 9 International journal of forecasting 9 Applied economics letters 8 Controlling : Zeitschrift für erfolgsorientierte Unternehmenssteuerung 8 Economics letters 8 International journal of finance & economics : IJFE 8 Computational economics 7 Economic modelling 7 Erfolg beim Management virtueller Organisationen : durch Frühwarnung Risiken vermeiden 7 International review of economics & finance : IREF 7 MPRA Paper 7 Policy Research Working Paper 7 Working paper series 7 World Bank E-Library Archive 7 Applied economics 6 Der Betrieb 6 Economic systems 6 Economics and finance working paper series 6 IWH Discussion Papers 6 Journal of forecasting 6 Journal of policy modeling : JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues 6 NBER working paper series 6 Policy research working paper : WPS 6
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 2,121 RePEc 119 EconStor 45 Other ZBW resources 3 BASE 1 ArchiDok 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 2,290
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Predicting bank distress in Europe : using machine learning and a novel definition of distress
Malikkidou, Despo; Strohbach, Wolfgang - 2025
This paper develops an early warning system for predicting distress for large European banks. Using a novel definition of distress derived from banks' headroom above regulatory requirements, we investigate the performance of three machine learning techniques against the traditional logistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015185208
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Convolutional neural networks to signal currency crises : from the Asian financial crisis to the Covid crisis
Barthélémy, Sylvain; Gautier, Virginie; Rondeau, Fabien - 2024
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Early warning system for currency crises using long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit neural networks
Barthélémy, Sylvain; Gautier, Virginie; Rondeau, Fabien - In: Journal of forecasting 43 (2024) 5, pp. 1235-1262
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Early warning systems in Indonesian Islamic banks : a comparison of Islamic commercial and rural banks
Mawardi, Imron; Al Mustofa, Muhammad Ubaidillah; … - In: Cogent economics & finance 11 (2023) 1, pp. 1-21
The study examines the stability of Indonesian Islamic Commercial Bank (ICB) and Islamic Rural Bank (IRB) by employing a Markov Switching Dynamic model of two regimes, stable (tranquil) and unstable (crisis). This study utilizes monthly data between December 2007 and April 2022. Findings show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014500626
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Early warning system for currency crises using long short-term memory and gated recurrent unit neural networks
Barthélémy, Sylvain; Rondeau, Fabien; Gautier, Virginie - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014334456
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Predicting bank distress in Europe: Using machine learning and a novel definition of distress
Malikkidou, Despo; Strohbach, Wolfgang - 2025
This paper develops an early warning system for predicting distress for large European banks. Using a novel definition of distress derived from banks' headroom above regulatory requirements, we investigate the performance of three machine learning techniques against the traditional logistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015199522
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Valuing the economic impact of river floods and early flood warning for households in Bangladesh
Zayed, Stephanie; Morrison, Laura T. R.; Lapidus, Daniel; … - In: Economics of disasters and climate change 9 (2025) 1, pp. 29-51
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330771
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AI for climate finance : agentic retrieval and multi-step reasoning for early warning system investments
Vaghefi, Saeid Ario; Hachcham, Aymane; Grasso, Veronica; … - 2025
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Exploring corporate capital structure and overleveraging in the pharmaceutical industry
Issa, Samar; Issa, Hussein - In: Risks : open access journal 13 (2025) 2, pp. 1-33
This paper applies an empirical model of corporate capital structure, optimal debt, and overleveraging to estimate overleveraging measured as the difference between actual and optimal debt. Estimated using a sample of the twenty largest pharmaceutical firms, covering the time span from 2000 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015333730
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Tailored microprudential recommendations for bank profit retention using a risk tolerance framework
Jakubik, Petr; Moinescu, Bogdan Gabriel - In: International review of economics & finance : IREF 98 (2025), pp. 1-25
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Time sensitive and oversampling learning for systemic crisis forecasting
De Nicolò, Francesco; La Rocca, Marianna; Marrone, Antonio - In: Systemic Risk and Complex Networks in Modern Financial …, (pp. 155-177). 2025
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Catalysing business engagement in early warning systems
WMO - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329002
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 1, pp. 3-40
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Comparing parametric, semi parametric and non-parametric early warning systems for banking crisis: Indian context
Gupta, Neha; Kumar, Arya - In: Global business & economics review 26 (2022) 2, pp. 111-134
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Early warning system for the European insurance sector
Danieli, Lorenzo; Jakubik, Petr - In: Ekonomický časopis : časopis pre ekonomickú … 70 (2022) 1, pp. 3-21
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Assessing macro-fiscal risk for Latin American and Caribbean countries
Valencia, Oscar M.; Díaz, Juan Camilo; Parra, Diego A. - 2022
This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014494272
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An early warning system for currency crises in emerging countries
Ferdous, Lutfa Tilat; Kamal, Khnd Md Mostafa; Ahsan, Amirul - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 4, pp. 1-25
In this study we develop an early warning system (EWS) to forecast currency crises in emerging countries in Asia and Latin America, using logit regression on monthly data from 1992 to 2011. We found that macroeconomic and institutional variables are valuable indicators for forecasting crises....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013273017
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Financial growth and crash under shadow banking
Bhaduri, Amit; Raghavendra, Srinivas - In: Review of political economy 36 (2024) 3, pp. 1156-1173
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Reading between the lines : quantitative text analysis of banking crises
Plessis, Emile du - In: Research in economics 78 (2024) 4, pp. 1-20
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015179335
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Mid-term early warning : anticipating the next 6 months : overview of existing knowledge on enhanced situational awareness for crisis management
Poljansek, Karmen (contributor); Ronco, Michele (contributor) - European Commission / Joint Research Centre - 2024
This report is one of the joint deliverables of Joint Research Centre on "Enhanced Situational Awareness for Crisis Management". It focuses on advancing towards integrated mid-term early warning system that will aim at anticipating disasters and crises within a 6-month window. Ability to detect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015321523
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Mid-term early warning : anticipating the next 6 months : overview of existing knowledge on enhanced situational awareness for crisis management
Poljansek, Karmen (contributor); Ronco, Michele (contributor) - European Commission / Joint Research Centre - 2024
This report is one of the joint deliverables of Joint Research Centre on "Enhanced Situational Awareness for Crisis Management". It focuses on advancing towards integrated mid-term early warning system that will aim at anticipating disasters and crises within a 6-month window. Ability to detect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015321993
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Optimizing composite early warning indicators
Beltran, Daniel O.; Dalal, Vihar M.; Jahan-Parvar, … - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 74 (2024), pp. 1-13
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The power and limits of data for peace : improving the EU conflict early warning system for more effective prevention
Bressan, Sarah (contributor) - European Union Institute for Security Studies - 2024
This Brief analyses the EU warning system's contribution to conflict prevention and discusses ways to strengthen it. The first section examines the factors that contribute to the success of the system. The second section suggests how the system and the EU's overall prevention approach can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015277314
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Balancing the risk of tipping : early warning systems from detection to management
Diekert, Florian; Heyen, Daniel; Nesje, Frikk; Shayegh, … - 2024
Early warning signals (EWS) of imminent regime shifts can be identified through the observation of a system's behavior under increasing stress and before crossing a tipping point. Despite many advances in the detection of EWS in recent years, EWS are yet to find direct application in management....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014456168
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A note on the early warning system of change points : combination of regime switching and threshold models
Habibi, Reza - In: Financial studies 28 (2024) 2, pp. 6-18
Abrupt changes are a prevalent feature of financial data sets, such as prices of financial assets, returns of stocks, exchange rates, etc. An early warning system (EWS) can detect existing changes and predict possible future changes before they occur. Two important statistical models for change...
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Dynamic monitoring of financial security risks : a novel China financial risk index and an early warning system
Zhang, Wenyu - In: Economics letters 234 (2024), pp. 1-7
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Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk
Korol, Tomasz - In: Decision : official journal of Indian Institute of … 51 (2024) 3, pp. 279-302
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Empirical research to identify early warning indicators of insolvency in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
Navarro Galera, Andrés; Lara-Rubio, Juan; … - In: Revista de Contabilidad 27 (2024) 2, pp. 344-356
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Improving early warning and response for supply chain disruptions
Langner, Daniel - 2024
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Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit
Drehmann, Mathias; Juselius, Mikael; Quincy, Sarah - 2024
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Measuring financial stability in Curaçao and Sint Maarten
Ooft, Gavin; Thijn-Baank, Monique - 2024
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Reserve requirements as a financial stability instrument
Cantú, Carlos; Gondo, Rocio; Martinez, Berenice - 2024
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Early warning models for systemic banking crises : can political indicators improve prediction?
Tran Huynh; Übelmesser, Silke - In: European journal of political economy 81 (2024), pp. 1-38
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Constructing a composite indicator to assess cyclical systemic risks : an early warning approach
Koponen, Heidi - 2024
The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...
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Targeting vulnerability hotspots along the agrifood system : a stress test for Ethiopia and Nigeria
Letta, Marco; Montalbano, Pierluigi; Morales-Opazo, Cristian - 2024
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Sistemas de protección de trayectorias educativas en Argentina
Vinacur, Tamara; Alegre, Silvina; Torre, Esteban; Cruz … - 2024
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Distress prediction and stress testing of nonfinancial firms : case of Mongolia
Damdinjav, Davaasukh; Batjargal, Dulamzaya; Batmunkh, Ninjin - 2024
This paper investigates the resilience of non-financial firms in Mongolia against financial distress. Utilizing firm-level financial data from 2013 to 2022, we employed a LASSO variable selection technique and logistic regression analysis to develop a distress prediction model for these firms....
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Volatility spillovers and contagion during major crises : an early warning approach based on a deep learning model
Sahiner, Mehmet - In: Computational economics 63 (2024) 6, pp. 2435-2499
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Food prices and the wages of the poor : a cost-effective addition to high-frequency food security monitoring
Headey, Derek; Bachewe, Fantu; Marshall, Quinn; … - In: Food policy 125 (2024), pp. 1-12
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015070020
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Early warning system for debt group migration : the case of one commercial Bank in Vietnam
Quoc Hung Nguyen; Hoang Viet Trinh; Truong Viet Phuong; … - In: Foundations of Management : the journal of Warsaw … 16 (2024) 1, pp. 195-216
This study utilizes machine learning models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Random Forest, in the early warning system for debt group migration in a Vietnamese commercial bank. In predicting customers' overdue debt migration (B Score), the RF model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015073378
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Maldives : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Bank Stress Testing and Climate Risk Analysis
International Monetary Fund / Monetary and Capital … - 2024
This paper presents a technical note on bank stress testing and climate risks analysis in Maldives. Although the Maldives' economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, macro and financial vulnerabilities remain. The stress test results broadly corroborated the identified...
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A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Gåsste, Tim; Hegre, Håvard - In: International journal of forecasting 40 (2024) 1, pp. 96-112
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014450261
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Predicting dropout from higher education : evidence from Italy
Delogu, Marco; Lagravinese, Raffaele; Paolini, Dimitri; … - In: Economic modelling 130 (2024), pp. 1-15
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014451143
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Sudan’s climate-culture story: a project with HEART – Heritage Empowered Action for Risk in Tuti
Minguez Garcia, Barbara; Saif Alislam Abdulgadir Ahmed, … - In: Journal of Cultural Heritage Management and Sustainable … 14 (2024) 5, pp. 793-797
Purpose Located at the confluence of the White and Blue Niles, in the core of Sudan’s capital, the small island of Tuti has been affected by flooding events throughout its history. To protect it, the Tuti people (Tawatas) developed the Taya, a traditional early warning, community-based flood...
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Accounting-based variables as an early warning indicator of financial distress in crisis and non-crisis periods
Powell, Robert; Dung V. Dinh; Nam Thanh Vu; Duc Hong Vo - 2024
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Early warning and alluvial risk perception of Peruvian business intelligent owners systems
Ramirez-Asis, Edwin; Villegas-Ramirez, Giovani; … - In: International journal of intelligent enterprise 11 (2024) 4, pp. 335-353
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Subsidiarity ex ante and ex post : from the early warning system to the court of justice of the European Union
Huysmans, Martijn; Brink, Ton van den; Van Gruisen, Philippe - In: Journal of common market studies : JCMS 62 (2024) 3, pp. 744-759
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Macroeconomic perspective on constructing financial vulnerability indicator in China
Kuek, Tai-Hock; Puah, Chin-Hong; M. Affendy Arip; … - In: Journal of business economics and management 22 (2021) 1, pp. 181-196
This paper attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator for China as a barometer for the state of financial vulnerability in the Chinese financial market, possibly for real-time application. Twelve variables from different sectors are utilised to extract a common vulnerability...
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Anticipation of currency crisis in Iran economy with the use of an early warning system
Farzin, Fatemeh; Googerdchian, Ahmad; Saffari, Babak - In: Iranian economic review : journal of University of Tehran 25 (2021) 1, pp. 69-83
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How effective is Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in predicting negative macroeconomic phenomen?
Biegun, Krzysztof; Karwowski, Jacek; Luty, Piotr - In: European research studies 24 (2021) 3, pp. 822-837
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012666356
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