We study a dynamic principal-agent setting in which both sides learn about the importance of effort. The quality of the agent's output is not observed directly. Instead, the principal jointly designs an evaluation technology and a wage schedule. More precise performance evaluation reduces...

We develop a new method for deriving high-frequency synthetic distributions of consumption, income, and wealth. Modern theories of macroeconomic dynamics identify the joint distribution of consumption, income, and wealth as a key determinant of aggregate dynamics. Our novel method allows us to...

In this paper, we propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth. We combine ideas from "bottom-up" approaches, which utilize the national income accounting identity through modelling and predicting sub-components of GDP, with a dynamic factor (DF) model, which is...

Armed conflicts significantly affect the social and economic conditions of societies in turmoil, disrupting the normal functioning of local economies. This study seeks to delve into the repercussions of armed conflicts on the dynamics of local economies in Ségou and Mopti, Mali, since the...

Until recently literature on dynamic factor models invariably assumed that the cross sectional error covariance matrix is diagonal. This is due to the many parameters which need to be estimated for large data sets, which is known as the curse of dimensionality. Spencer (2024) introduced a novel...

This paper introduces a novel dynamic factor model designed to capture common locally explosive episodes, also known as common bubbles, within large-dimensional, potentially non-stationary time series. The model leverages a lower-dimensional set of factors exhibiting locally explosive behavior...

It is common to transform data to stationarity, such as by differencing and demeaning, before estimating factor models in macroeconomics. Imposing these transformations, however, limit opportunities to learn about trending behaviour. Trends and deterministic processes can play a central role in...

China and India, two Asian countries that experienced a rapid decline in fertility since the middle of the twentieth century, are the focus of this paper. Although there is no doubt that lower fertility levels have many positive effects on the economy, development and sustainability, little is...

This paper employs a dynamic multi-sector growth model with changing technology to study the relevance of the price and quantity dimensions involved in the technical substitution of carbon-intensive technology, that is, the low-carbon transition. For the framing of the transition, the stylized...

Besley and Persson (2023) pioneer a political economy model of a green transition with changing preferences. Here we solve for the optimal policy intervention and find that the optimal tax on the polluting good starts high and is subsequently declining, to support the transition in preferences....

Armed conflicts significantly affect the social and economic conditions of societies in turmoil, disrupting the normal functioning of local economies. This study seeks to delve into the repercussions of armed conflicts on the dynamics of local economies in Ségou and Mopti, Mali, since the...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between firm leverage and risktaking. We embed the traditional agency problem of asset substitution within a multi-period model, revealing a U-shaped relationship between leverage and risktaking, evident in data from both the U.S. and Europe. Firms...

We study the interaction between an agent of uncertain type, whose project gives rise to both good and bad news, and an evaluator who must decide if and when to fire the agent. The agent can hide bad news from the evaluator at some cost, and will do so if this secures her a significant increase...

The existing literature on large dynamic factor models invariably assumes that the cross sectional covariance matrix is diagonal. This is due to the curse of dimensionality which means that many parameters need to be estimated for large data sets. This paper introduces a novel maximum likelihood...

This paper presents a dynamic model averaging approach for forecasting nominal exchange rates, which is a novel approach in exchange rate forecasting literature. This framework encompasses most of the approaches commonly used in the forecasting literature. We focus on nine major trading currency...

This paper addresses the poor performance of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in the estimation of low-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo simulations how the EM algorithm stagnates in a...

We study a sequential screening problem in which the information structure is characterized by neither first-order stochastic dominance (FOSD) nor mean-preserving spread (MPS). Specifically, we refer to a procurement contract with privately known mean and spread of cost distribution. The...

This paper introduces a novel score-driven dynamic factor model designed for filtering cross-sectional co-movements in panels of time series. The model is formulated using elliptical distribution for the noise terms, thus allowing the update of the time-varying parameter to be potentially...

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first-order equivalent in an economy with flexible incentive pay and...