Die deutsche Wirtschaft entwickelte sich im Winterhalbjahr 2024/25 weiterhin schwach, da sich im unsicheren Vorfeld der Neuwahlen im Februar 2025 die privaten Verbraucher und Unternehmen weiter zurückhielten, zudem gingen die Exporte weiter zurück. Bei der Neuwahl erhielt die Union die...

Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics forecasts,...

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast with an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions elsewhere. The near-term outlook is characterized by divergent paths, while...

This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...

In this paper, we propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth. We combine ideas from "bottom-up" approaches, which utilize the national income accounting identity through modelling and predicting sub-components of GDP, with a dynamic factor (DF) model, which is...

Developing countries face uncertainties driven by global macroeconomic variables over which they have little to no control. Key exogenous factors faced by most developing countries include interest rates in high-income countries, commodity prices, global demand for exports, and remit- tance...

This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and...

The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the...

We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...

The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin's forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im ersten Quartal dieses Jahres überraschend deutlich gewachsen, um 0,4 %. Da einige Sondereffekte diese Entwicklung begünstigten, dürfte das zweite Quartal eher schwächer ausfallen. Inzwischen ist eine neue Regierung im Amt. Die Union hatte umfassende...

The German economy is stuck in a difficult position as it faces both slow growth as well as structural change. The continuing lack of orders in manufacturing, increasing international competition, and sluggish development in industry-related services are now affecting the labor market and...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient, buoyed by strong domestic demand and a recovering service sector. The current account deficit widened, driven by moderating terms of trade and cyclical factors that intensified services and income outflows. After two years of consolidation, the fiscal...

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...

Incoming data suggest a weakening in the prospects for euro area growth, but a consumption-led recovery remains the central scenario. Growth recovered in the first half of 2024 amid a boost from net trade. The latest indicators suggest growth will continue in the short run but at rates lower...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation were largely unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter of 2024).1 Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025...

Following a prolonged and broad-based stagnation, the EU economy resumed growth in the first quarter of this year. As projected in spring, the expansion continued at a subdued, yet steady, pace throughout the second and third quarters, amidst further abating inflationary pressures. The...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation were largely unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter of 2024).1 Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025...