Die deutsche Wirtschaft entwickelte sich im Winterhalbjahr 2024/25 weiterhin schwach, da sich im unsicheren Vorfeld der Neuwahlen im Februar 2025 die privaten Verbraucher und Unternehmen weiter zurückhielten, zudem gingen die Exporte weiter zurück. Bei der Neuwahl erhielt die Union die...

Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics forecasts,...

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast with an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions elsewhere. The near-term outlook is characterized by divergent paths, while...

This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...

In this paper, we propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth. We combine ideas from "bottom-up" approaches, which utilize the national income accounting identity through modelling and predicting sub-components of GDP, with a dynamic factor (DF) model, which is...

Developing countries face uncertainties driven by global macroeconomic variables over which they have little to no control. Key exogenous factors faced by most developing countries include interest rates in high-income countries, commodity prices, global demand for exports, and remit- tance...

This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and...

The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the...

We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...

The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...

Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin's forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist im ersten Quartal dieses Jahres überraschend deutlich gewachsen, um 0,4 %. Da einige Sondereffekte diese Entwicklung begünstigten, dürfte das zweite Quartal eher schwächer ausfallen. Inzwischen ist eine neue Regierung im Amt. Die Union hatte umfassende...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led...

The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside...

In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the...

This technical report gives an overview of the data sources and methodologies used by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to compile the dataset on structural indicators of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are used in the annual SME Performance Review. The SME Performance Review is one...

This study seeks to provide a concise and succinct overview of the structure, key facts and figures, and rules and procedures of the EU budget, and informs about the latest developments in EU finances and budgeting. It aims to serve both as a reference guide for experienced EU budget actors and...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...