In Turkey, the housing market is affected by various factors, and housing prices are shaped according to current conditions. In this study, the relationship between the housing price index (HPI) and economic variables (inflation and exchange rate) in Turkey was investigated. We used a 10-year...

We introduce a new Economic Distress Index (EDI), which incorporates information from all economic sectors as a device for real-time monitoring of financial stability risks in the euro area. Our approach is based on structural models of credit risk and incorporates market and balance sheet...

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the effects of changes in financial conditions on the economy of Türkiye, for which financial conditions indices were constructed. To examine possible changes in the relationship between financial conditions and the real economy due to the unique...

Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...

The volatility of exchange rates is considered to be an important measure of a country's economic vulnerability and has a direct or indirect causal relationship with a large number of macroeconomic variables. The aim of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic variables in the economic...

Several indicator and index frameworks have been reported to assess management efficiency and promote transparency, facilitating decision-making and innovation. However, they cannot be applied in cities with limited information, making them impractical. This study proposes a Sustainable Urban...

This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the...

Slovenia and other EU member states are subject to the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure. This article aims to evaluate the macroeconomic imbalances of the Slovenian economy and its synchronisation with other EU countries from 2013 to 2022. Eleven Scoreboard indicators are used to monitor...

The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...

East Asia and the Pacific remains one of the most dynamic regions in the world. Yet, when measured against its own past performance and potential, the region has under-performed. Growth in most economies - and even output in several Pacific Island economies - has not returned to pre-pandemic...

This paper introduces a novel composite energy poverty indicator, the M2LIHC, which combines elements of the twice-median expenditure share (2M) and Low Income High Cost (LIHC) measures. Using a unique dataset merging the Czech Household Budget Survey and EU-SILC data from 2017-2022, we...

The special topic examines the impact of selected factors on consumers' views of their country's economic situation, based on a supplementary ad hoc question added to the February/March 2025 waves of the consumer survey. The analysis assesses the responses at the EU level, as well as by country...

This Spring Forecast projects real GDP growth in 2025 at 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the euro area- broadly the same rates attained in 2024. This represents a considerable downgrade compared to the Autumn 2024 Forecast (AF24), largely due to the impact of increased tariffs and the heightened...

This report presents the 2024 edition of the Innovation Output Indicator (IOI), a composite indicator published by the European Commission since 2013 to offer an output-focused metric of innovation performance at the country and EU levels. The IOI measures countries' capacity to derive economic...

This document is an extract of the full final report of a 2-year project to identify and investigate opportunities for innovation in the monitoring of circularity across the EU. The project provides a comprehensive baseline of current policy and funding frameworks, and monitoring efforts across...

This document is the full final report of a 2-year project to identify and investigate opportunities for innovation in the monitoring of circularity across the EU. The project provides a comprehensive baseline of current policy and funding frameworks, and monitoring efforts across 11 priority...

Accurate gold price forecasting is essential for informed financial decision-making, as gold is sensitive to economic, political, and social factors. This study presents a hybrid framework for multivariate gold price prediction that integrates classical econometric modelling, traditional machine...

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an "activity sentiment score" based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff...

Since the publication of the previous (2022) RISE edition, progress toward universal electrification reversed course for the first time in 20 years. About 685 million people, most of them living in Sub-Saharan Africa, lacked access in 2022. While RISE electricity access scores climbed in many...

In 2024, Libya's economic performance reflects the persistent challenges of hydrocarbon dependency compared against nascent signs of broader recovery. The economy recorded a contraction of 0.6 percent for the year, driven primarily by a decline in oil GDP of 6 percent amid political and...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient amid worsening global conditions. GDP grew at 4.9 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q1-2025, slightly lower than previous post-pandemic quarters. Domestic demand was impacted by reduced government consumption and lower investment. Budget efficiency measures led...

This survey examines the economic performance of economies of the Caribbean in 2022 and the first few months of 2023 and comprises five chapters. The first chapter gives an overview of global, regional and subregional economic performance in the Caribbean. The second provides an analysis of the...

Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

This paper examines the inflationary episode of 1603 in Spain through the lens of Austrian Economic Theory. The study focuses on the effects of monetary expansion caused by the influx of precious metals from the Americas and its impact on real wages and raw material prices. Through the analysis...

The notion of compensation for systematic risk is well ingrained in finance and constitutes the basis for numerous empirical tests. The concept an increase in systematic risk is accompanied by an increase in the required risk premium has strong intuitive content: The more risk there is to be...