This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters' views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Depending on its outcome, the election can have a differential effect on Germany's foreign trade policy due to intensive trade ties...

How can women's representation improve in countries that do not embrace legislated gender quotas? We study municipal elections in Turkey during 2009-2019. A conservative dominant party, Erdogan's AKP, is often challenged by a Kurdish party that promotes gender equality in electoral lists....

We study the strategic interaction between candidates to office and the print media, exploring the following tension: while the media is instrumental for candidates to communicate with voters, candidates and media outlets have conflicting preferences over the contents of media reporting. We...

We evaluate how traditional parties may respond to populist parties on issues aligning with populist messages. During the 2020 Italian referendum on the reduction of members of Parliament, we conducted a large-scale field experiment, exposing 200 municipalities to nearly a million impressions of...

In this paper, we investigate the effect of Donald Trump's campaign for coal during his successful race for the White House in 2016. We use a twofold empirical strategy. First, we estimate an event study model to show the change in Republican Party shares in coal counties in 2016 relative to...

Tappin, Berinsky, and Rand (2023) find that the effectiveness of persuasive messaging is not diminished by countervailing in-party leader cues, using a survey experiment fielded in the United States. In this robustness reproduction, we briefly summarize the original design and results before...

This paper explores the labor market returns to working on a victorious political campaign. Using unique administrative data from Brazil, we track the earnings and employment of campaign workers before and after close elections spanning nearly 20 years. We identify sizable returns to working for...

This paper explores the implications of voter loss-aversion and imperfect recall for the dynamics of electoral competition in a simple Downsian model of repeated elections. The interplay between the median voter’s reference point and political parties’ choice of platforms generates a dynamic...

In democracies, political parties promise to expand social benefits to attract voters in the lead-up to elections. However, we know relatively little whether such campaign promises effectively sway benefiting voters. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we estimate the causal effects of an...

Routine immunization coverage estimated in surveys often substantially differs from figures reported in administrative records, presenting a dilemma for researchers and policy makers. Using high-frequency phone surveys and administrative records from government sources in 36 low- and...

Does the length of time passing between elections and the announcement of elections results increase the risk of post-election violence? The declaration of official election results is a crucial moment in the electoral cycle. When electoral management bodies (EMBs) take longer than expected to...

The Poor People's Campaign (PPC) of 1968 was focused on highlighting, and ultimately reducing, poverty in the United States. As part of the campaign, protestors from across the country were transported to Washington, D.C. in 6 separate bus caravans, each of which made stops en route to rest,...

There is a harmful mismatch between how information published by the government is perceived—as highly trustworthy—and the reality that it is often not. This Article shows that the government frequently collects information from third-party private entities and publishes it with no review or...

This paper explores the labor market returns to working on a victorious political campaign. Using unique administrative data from Brazil, we track the earnings and employment of campaign workers before and after close elections spanning nearly 20 years. We identify sizable returns to working for...

This article delves into the diverse and complex nature of conceptualising misinformation as an object of research, highlighting the interdisciplinary scholarship in this field that results in varied and sometimes conflicting definitions. While a singular theory of misinformation is neither...