In this paper we evaluate whether the accuracy of Finnish unemployment rate forecasts can be improved by utilising the information in the flows into and out of unemployment. We compare and contrast different methodologies for constructing the flows. Our results indicate that Bayesian vector...

Mit dem dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodell mircoDEMS wird die Größe und Zusammensetzung der Erwerbsbevölkerung bis 2040 simuliert, wobei der Einfluss individueller Merkmale auf die Erwerbsbeteiligung sowie pensionsrechtliche Änderungen berücksichtigt werden. Die Simulationen zeigen, dass...

Unemployment rates provide information on the economic development of countries. Unemployment is not only an economic problem but also a social one. As such, unemployment rates are important for governments and policy makers. Therefore, researchers around the world are constantly developing new...

Aus dem einleitenden Teil: "Im Auftrag des AMS Österreich führt das Institut Synthesis Forschung regelmäßig Analysen wie Prognosen des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes durch (siehe dazu auch die entsprechenden AMS- Publikationen im Internet: www.ams-forschungsnetzwerk.at). Das vorliegende...

Since the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic, labor market indicators that traditionally move together have been sending different signals about the degree of slack in the U.S. labor market. While some indicators on the supply-side, such as the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, suggest that...

Aus dem einleitenden Teil: "Im Auftrag des AMS Österreich führt das Institut Synthesis Forschung regelmäßig Analysen wie Prognosen des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes durch (siehe dazu auch die entsprechenden AMS- Publikationen im Internet: www.ams-forschungsnetzwerk.at). Das vorliegende...

This working paper provides forecasts of changes in employment levels, in total, by sector and by different labour force groups in Europe, from 2022 to 2027. These forecasts of employment levels, both in terms of persons employed and in terms of hours worked, have been produced under three...

This working paper provides forecasts of changes in employment levels, in total, by sector and by different labour force groups in Europe, from 2022 to 2027. These forecasts of employment levels, both in terms of persons employed and in terms of hours worked, have been produced under three...

This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It...

We introduce a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency VAR model for the aggregate euro area labour market that features a structural identification via sign restrictions. The purpose of this paper is twofold: we aim at (i) providing reliable and timely forecasts of key labour market variables and (ii)...

We introduce a Bayesian Mixed-Frequency VAR model for the aggregate euro area labour market that features a structural identification via sign restrictions. The purpose of this paper is twofold: we aim at (i) providing reliable and timely forecasts of key labour market variables and (ii)...

Mit der Pensionierung der Babyboomer Generation wird sich die Arbeitsmarktlage in der Schweiz dramatisch ändern. An der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät versuchen wir bereits heute abzuschätzen, welche Folgen das für die Schweizerische Wirtschaft und die unterschiedlichen Branchen hat.

Aus dem einleitenden Teil: "Im Auftrag des AMS Österreich führt das Institut Synthesis Forschung regelmäßig Analysen wie Prognosen des österreichischen Arbeitsmarktes durch (siehe dazu auch die entsprechenden AMS- Publikationen im Internet: www.ams-forschungsnetzwerk.at). Das vorliegende...

Der demographische Wandel stellt unsere Gesellschaft vor große Herausforderungen. Gleichzeitig macht ein Rückblick auf die vergangene Dekade im deutschen Arbeitsmarkt deutlich, dass der Aufbau zusätzlicher Beschäftigung durch eine verbesserte Erwerbsintegration ein bedeutsamer Schlüssel zur...

Der demografische Wandel ist schon lange absehbar, hat jedoch nicht immer zu einer vorausschauenden Gestaltung der politischen Rahmenbedingungen geführt. Diese Studie zeigt auf, dass der demografische Wandel sich gerade noch einmal deutlich beschleunigt und damit ein entschlossenes und...

This paper presents a method to improve the one-step-ahead forecasts of the Spanish unemployment monthly series. To do so, we use numerous potential explanatory variables extracted from searches in Google (GoogleTrends tool).Two different dimension reduction techniques are implemented (PCA and...

Der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt steht kurz vor einem grundlegenden Umbruch. Sind die Erwerbspersonenzahlen in den letzten Jahrzehnten kontinuierlich gestiegen, werden sie mit dem Übergang der geburtenstarken Jahrgänge der Babyboomer in den Ruhestand aller Voraussicht nach deutlich einbrechen. Wie...

This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It...

Labor markets in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe underwent a dramatic transformation. Notably, this transformation took place within just a few years. Until the mid-2000s job opportunities were scarce and unemployment was high. But since then labor demand has picked up and...

This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It...

As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture’s role as domestic employer declines. But the broader agri-food system (AFS) also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. Historically, technological revolutions both have shaped and...

We show that Google search activity on relevant terms is a strong out-of-sample predictor for future employment growth in the US over the period 2004-2019 at both short and long horizons. Starting from an initial search term ''jobs'', we construct a large panel of 172 variables using Google's...

As countries develop (and food saturation takes hold), agriculture's role as domestic employer declines. But the broader agri-food system also expands, and the scope for agriculture-related job creation shifts beyond the farm. Historically, technological revolutions have shaped and been shaped...