Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

We study the aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of fiscal policy responses to Germany’s energy crisis using a novel Ten-Agents New-Keynesian (TENK) model. The energy crisis, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to sharp increases in energy prices, inflation, and significant...

Greater Asia is emerging as a major factor in the global energy transition. This shift is associated with growing independence from external actors such as the European Union and the United States, with unfolding developments increasingly concentrated within the region itself. Key trends include...

The distributional and disruptive effects of energy supply shocks are potentially large. We study the effectiveness of alternative fiscal responses in a two-country HANK model calibrated to the euro area. Subsidies can stabilize the domestic economy, but they are fiscally costly and generate...

Rising energy and CO2 prices are driving industrial companies to focus increasingly on energy efficiency and flexibility to remain competitive. Besides technical improvements, smart energy services like nonintrusive load monitoring (NILM) are promising approaches to increasing a company's energy...

We provide evidence in line with the illusion of moral superiority, a phenomenon that individuals perceive themselves to be more morally motivated than others. We analyze survey data collected during the 2022/23 energy crisis in Germany to investigate individuals' and others' motivations to...

Purpose - Growing food insecurity is a leading cause of fatalities, particularly in developing nations like Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. However, the rising energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are mostly associated with food production. Balancing the trade-offs...

The global energy landscape is undergoing a major transformation, upending decades of economic thinking built around resource scarcity. Unlike fossil fuels – continuously extracted from finite, geographically fixed deposits – renewable energy revolves around manufacturing technology that...

This paper analyzes the monetary policy trade-off between defending purchasing power of consumers and keeping moderate debt cost for borrowers, in the framework of a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian open economy hit by a foreign energy price shock. Raising the interest rate indeed combats the...

Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

The bilateral tariffs imposed by the US are uncalled for, and the EU must respond vigorously to deter the administration from harming their mutual trade relationship. The threats of tariffs come on top of adverse energy shocks associated with the war in the Ukraine and lagging productivity...

Evidence on how energy poverty persistence and vulnerability to key factors are distributed across different population groups remains scarce. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by analyzing the dynamics and determinants of energy poverty within population clusters. The significance of the...

Energy management can be designed from different perspectives including production, distribution, and consumption. Focusing on consumption perspective, manufacturing systems can be enhanced by enabling smart machines as agents which operate with their own knowledge representation models in a...

Industrial policy has a long history, having been used by many governments to encourage economic development through the provision of direct financial support and/or supportive regulations to specific sectors and industries. Over the past decade, the energy transition has increasingly forced...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was accompanied by a significant reduction of its gas supply to Europe, causing sharp energy price surges and prompting governments to respond with public appeals and programs aimed at reducing consumption. This paper investigates the effects of price...

Energy poverty and health appear to be closely related, yet robust evidence on whether and how they mutually influence each other over time is still limited. We employ a dynamic latent class model on rich longitudinal data from the Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia Survey to...

This paper aims to understand the health effects of energy poverty in Germany using SOEP panel data from 2010 to 2020. Linear probability models and fixed effects ordered logit models reveal a consistently negative relationship of three expendituresbased energy poverty indicators with general...

This paper aims to understand the health effects of energy poverty in Germany using SOEP panel data from 2010 to 2020. Linear probability models and fixed effects ordered logit models reveal a consistently negative relationship of three expenditures based energy poverty indicators with general...

We construct a New-Keynesian E-DSGE model with energy disaggregation and financial intermediaries to show how energy-related fiscal and macroprudential policies interact in affecting the euro area macroeconomy and carbon emissions. When a shock to the price of fossil resources propagates through...

In sheer quantity, the five original BRICS countries appear impressive. They account for a substantial share of the world's population, economy, trade and muster large militaries. In January 2024, BRICS gained even more steam, by admitting four new member states that participated in the most...

In response to the energy crisis, which led to high inflation, Romania, like other EU Member States, introduced a series of price-related and income-related measures to cushion the negative impact on households' welfare. Using EUROMOD and its Indirect Tax Tool extension, we assess the impact of...

Mit dem Berichtsmonat Januar 2024 wurde beim Produktionsindex für das Produ zierende Gewerbe das bisher geltende Basisjahr 2015 turnusmäßig durch das neue Basisjahr 2021 abgelöst. Die Indexgewichte wurden auf das Jahr 2021 aktualisiert und die Bezugsgröße der Indizes wurde auf das neue...

Following the Russia-Ukraine war, the issue of energy security has once again surged to the forefront of global discussions. The disruption and threats to global energy security caused by the war have starkly exposed the vulnerability of energy supply chains, accentuating the pressing need for...

This gas-focused edition of the Oxford Energy Forum updates the scorecard on the key issues driving medium to long-term gas demand prospects in key consuming countries. Whether it is European climate policy and the regulation of decarbonized gases, the demand outlook for Asian industrial...

As tensions between the West and China deepen, critical minerals and materials for strategic technologies, including for low-carbon energy, have become one of the battlegrounds. China's centrality to the supply of some of these critical minerals and materials has prompted Western governments to...

We study the potential effects on the real economy and welfare of four fiscal policy responses to an energy supply shock: energy vouchers to all households, only to lowincome households, or to non-energy goods producers, and subsidies for investments in the energy sector. The analysis relies on...

The EU is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050 at the latest and to aiming to achieve net negative emissions thereafter. Achieving these objectives requires adapting and developing the EU's energy infrastructure in a way that supports rapid...

The EU corporate sector has been subject to severe shocks in recent years, i.e., the administrative restrictions on activity in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply bottlenecks in its aftermath, and more recently the spike in energy prices in the context of the full-scale invasion of...

After the beginning of the war in Ukraine, energy prices in Germany increased drastically. The paper analyses responses of German firms to this energy price shock. A variety of measures and reactions at the firm-level are explored, such as substituting machinery and equipment by less energy...