This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

We examine how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent...

The ifo Business Climate Index is one of the most important leading indicators for the German economy. It is based on a monthly survey of approximately 9,000 firms and reflects responses to two core questions: the assessment of the firms' current business situation and their expectations for the...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

Economic narratives are pervasive in the public discourse and can shape individual behavior. But so far we know very little about whether households actually demand and value narratives as information. We combine a comprehensive expert survey with a large-scale nationally representative...

This paper introduces a novel TV news index specifically designed to track coverage of rising inflation across major US TV channels: ABC, CBS, CNN, and Fox News. The index is generated daily and aggregated into a monthly measure. Using this index, we analyze the impact of TV news on inflation...

Economic narratives are pervasive in the public discourse and can shape individual behavior. But so far we know very little about whether households actually demand and value narratives as information. We combine a comprehensive expert survey with a large-scale nationally representative...

Economic narratives are pervasive in the public discourse and can shape individual behavior. But so far we know very little about whether households actually demand and value narratives as information. We combine a comprehensive expert survey with a large-scale nationally representative...

In a novel survey, we study how German senior government officials systematically adjust fiscal policy in response to economic shocks, focusing on their fiscal responses to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Using randomized vignette treatments, we examine how officials update GDP and...

This study examines the unintended consequences of quality disclosures, focusing on how Academy Award nominations impact consumer satisfaction in the movie industry. Awards, certifications, and nominations typically signal high quality and increase consumer expectations. Yet, if the experience...

This paper leverages a novel survey among German senior government officials to investigate fiscal responses to monetary policy shocks. Using randomized vignette treatments, we present officials with scenarios of increased government interest costs and analyze their expected fiscal adjustments....

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, we measure economic narratives in open-ended survey...

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...

Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based...

Attention to the economy plays a key role in canonical macro models, yet its empirical properties are not well understood. We collect novel measures of attention to the economy based on open-ended survey questions. Our measures are included in tailored panel surveys of German firms and...

We provide evidence on the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of attention to the macroeconomy using tailored panel surveys of German firms and households. Draw-ing on novel measures of attention based on open-ended questions collected before and during a historic shock to inflation, we...

We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. We apply this approach...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

We examine how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent...

The ifo Business Climate Index is one of the most important leading indicators for the German economy. It is based on a monthly survey of approximately 9,000 firms and reflects responses to two core questions: the assessment of the firms' current business situation and their expectations for the...

Using a customized survey and an information-provision experiment, we establish that loan officers' individual subjective expectations about inflation, GDP growth, and policy rates vary substantially within and across bank types and have a sizable causal effect on credit supply decisions....

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

We demonstrate the asset pricing implications of investors' belief heterogeneity in the frequency of news arrival and its joint impact with heterogeneous beliefs about news content. Investors trade volatility derivatives against each other to speculate on the rate of news arrival: greater...

Models of female labor supply routinely assume that women have accurate expectations about post-birth employment, but little is known about whether this assumption holds. We use a 2019 state-contingent survey of 11,000 Danish women linked to administrative data to compare pre-birth beliefs to...

I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across...

Using a randomized control trial of approximately 1,000 firm pairs in New Zealand that have a customer-supplier relationship, we provide an information treatment to analyze both the direct effects on expectations and actions of firms receiving this information and the spillover effects on...