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Year of publication
Subject
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Erwartungsbildung 10,111 Expectation formation 10,065 Theorie 5,118 Theory 5,118 Rationale Erwartung 1,265 Rational expectations 1,250 Estimation 1,117 Schätzung 1,116 Experiment 969 Geldpolitik 887 Monetary policy 882 Risk 845 Risiko 844 USA 809 United States 809 Börsenkurs 669 Share price 669 Capital income 654 Kapitaleinkommen 654 Prognoseverfahren 628 Forecasting model 626 Inflation expectations 607 Inflationserwartung 607 Anlageverhalten 576 Behavioural finance 573 Zinsstruktur 555 Yield curve 550 Learning process 543 Lernprozess 543 Deutschland 491 CAPM 481 Germany 481 Konjunktur 472 Business cycle 470 Game theory 465 Spieltheorie 464 Consumer behaviour 451 Konsumentenverhalten 451 Wechselkurs 421 Exchange rate 409
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Online availability
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Free 4,671 Undetermined 1,994 CC license 89
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 6,100 Article 4,150 Other 2
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 3,727 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 3,727 Working Paper 2,943 Graue Literatur 2,921 Non-commercial literature 2,921 Arbeitspapier 2,875 Hochschulschrift 365 Aufsatz im Buch 322 Book section 322 Thesis 270 Collection of articles written by one author 77 Sammlung 77 Bibliografie enthalten 64 Bibliography included 64 Conference paper 47 Konferenzbeitrag 47 Collection of articles of several authors 32 Sammelwerk 32 Aufsatzsammlung 29 Dissertation u.a. Prüfungsschriften 28 Konferenzschrift 23 Systematic review 20 Übersichtsarbeit 20 Forschungsbericht 9 Mikroform 7 Article 6 Case study 6 Conference proceedings 6 Fallstudie 6 Conference Paper 4 Festschrift 4 Rezension 4 Reprint 3 Amtliche Publikation 2 Amtsdruckschrift 2 Government document 2 research-article 2 Bibliografie 1 Company information 1 Firmeninformation 1
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Language
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English 9,753 German 351 French 56 Undetermined 49 Spanish 24 Italian 17 Polish 5 Dutch 4 Portuguese 3 Danish 1 Finnish 1 Norwegian 1 Swedish 1
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Author
All
Hommes, Cars H. 100 Wohlfart, Johannes 88 Roth, Christopher 81 Evans, George W. 71 Gorodnichenko, Yuriy 71 Coibion, Olivier 66 Weber, Michael 66 Honkapohja, Seppo 50 Zafar, Basit 45 Eusepi, Stefano 42 Link, Sebastian 38 Shleifer, Andrei 37 Dräger, Lena 36 D'Acunto, Francesco 33 Müller, Gernot J. 32 Paloviita, Maritta 32 Gennaioli, Nicola 31 Preston, Bruce 31 Delavande, Adeline 29 Menkhoff, Lukas 29 Enders, Zeno 28 Manski, Charles F. 28 Stroebel, Johannes 28 Carroll, Chris 27 Sonnemans, Joep 27 Westerhoff, Frank H. 27 Dovern, Jonas 26 Enke, Benjamin 26 Haaland, Ingar 26 Zimmermann, Florian 26 McKenzie, David J. 25 Milani, Fabio 25 Weizsäcker, Georg 25 Chiarella, Carl 24 Svensson, Lars E. O. 24 Verschoor, Willem F. C. 24 Bordalo, Pedro 23 He, Xue-zhong 23 Malmendier, Ulrike 23 Berardi, Michele 22
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Institution
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National Bureau of Economic Research 278 Sonderforschungsbereich Quantifikation und Simulation Ökonomischer Prozesse 8 Society for Computational Economics - SCE 7 European Central Bank 6 Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 5 Banque de France / Direction des Etudes Economiques et de la Recherche 4 Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main 4 Internationaler Währungsfonds / Research Department 4 Tinbergen Instituut 4 Universität Mannheim 4 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3 Centre for Analytical Finance <Århus> 3 European University Institute / Department of Economics 3 Federal Reserve System / Division of Research and Statistics 3 International Monetary Fund 3 Karlsruher Institut für Technologie 3 National Institute of Economic and Social Research 3 Universitetet i Oslo / Økonomisk institutt 3 University of Exeter / Department of Economics 3 Universität des Saarlandes / Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft 3 Australian National University / Faculty of Economics 2 Center for the Study of Law and Economics <Saarbrücken> 2 Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 2 Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft 2 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2 Federal Reserve System / Board of Governors 2 Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena 2 HAL 2 Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research <Mailand> 2 Johns Hopkins University / Department of Economics 2 KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, Technology and Economics (D-MTEC) 2 Metropolis-Verlag für Ökonomie Gesellschaft und Politik GmbH 2 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2 Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies 2 Sonderforschungsbereich 303 - Information und die Koordination Wirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten, Universität Bonn 2 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research 2 Tinbergen Institute 2 Università degli Studi di Milano / Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Aziendale 2 de Nederlandsche Bank 2 Academic Press <London> 1
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Published in...
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NBER working paper series 279 NBER Working Paper 212 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 212 CESifo working papers 163 Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 121 Discussion paper series / IZA 120 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 118 Discussion papers / CEPR 114 Journal of economic dynamics & control 113 Economics letters 110 Discussion paper 89 Journal of economic theory 75 Games and economic behavior 71 IZA Discussion Paper 70 Working paper 68 CESifo Working Paper 60 Journal of monetary economics 58 Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 55 Applied economics 49 Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 46 Europäische Hochschulschriften / 5 45 Macroeconomic dynamics 43 European economic review : EER 41 Journal of financial economics 40 Journal of international money and finance 40 The American economic review 40 Working paper series / European Central Bank 39 Economic modelling 37 The review of financial studies 37 Finance and economics discussion series 35 The review of economics and statistics 35 Bank of Finland research discussion papers 34 Journal of risk and uncertainty : JRU 34 Management science : journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 34 Working paper series 34 Theory and decision : an international journal for multidisciplinary advances in decision science 33 Experimental economics : a journal of the Economic Science Association 32 Journal of banking & finance 32 Journal of economic psychology : research in economic psychology and behavioral economics 32 CESifo Working Paper Series 31
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 10,077 EconStor 78 RePEc 55 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 38 BASE 2 Other ZBW resources 2
Showing 1 - 50 of 10,252
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Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191733
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Cover Image
Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: January 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015173585
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Cover Image
Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025 - This version: March 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015361742
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Uncovering subjective models from survey expectations
Hou, Chenyu; Wang, Tao - 2024 - This Version: September, 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015271923
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Quality disclosures and disappointment : evidence from the academy nominations
Rossi, Michelangelo; Schleef, Felix - 2024
This study examines the unintended consequences of quality disclosures, focusing on how Academy Award nominations impact consumer satisfaction in the movie industry. Awards, certifications, and nominations typically signal high quality and increase consumer expectations. Yet, if the experience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015164665
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Fiscal responses to monetary policy : insights from a survey among government officials
Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad; … - 2024
This paper leverages a novel survey among German senior government officials to investigate fiscal responses to monetary policy shocks. Using randomized vignette treatments, we present officials with scenarios of increased government interest costs and analyze their expected fiscal adjustments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015053809
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Narratives about the macroeconomy
Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; … - 2024
We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. In surveys with more than 10,000 US households and 100 academic experts, we measure economic narratives in open-ended survey...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015057525
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The impact of credit market sentiment shocks
Boeck, Maximilian; Zörner, Thomas - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 56 (2024) 7, pp. 1645-1673
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015116884
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The effects of monetary policy : theory with measured expectations
Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013489702
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The effects of monetary policy : theory with measured expectations
Roth, Christopher; Wiederholt, Mirko; Wohlfart, Johannes - 2023
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013493004
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Attention to the macroeconomy
Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023
We provide evidence on the dynamics, drivers, and consequences of attention to the macroeconomy using tailored panel surveys of German firms and households. Draw-ing on novel measures of attention based on open-ended questions collected before and during a historic shock to inflation, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014382474
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Attention to the macroeconomy
Link, Sebastian; Peichl, Andreas; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023
Attention to the economy plays a key role in canonical macro models, yet its empirical properties are not well understood. We collect novel measures of attention to the economy based on open-ended survey questions. Our measures are included in tailored panel surveys of German firms and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014447716
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Do teams alleviate or exacerbate the extrapolation bias in the stock market?
Barahona, Ricardo; Cassella, Stefano; Jansen, Kristy A. E. - 2023
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Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany : first results of a pilot study
Demgensky, Lisa; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2023
Since 2021, the inflation rate in Germany and the euro area has increased significantly. At the same time, there are increasing signs of ``de-anchoring'' of inflation expectations in Germany. This paper - building on the approach of Andre et al. (2022) - examines in a pilot study survey-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014326784
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Narratives about the macroeconomy
Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; … - 2023
We provide evidence on narratives about the macroeconomy-the stories people tell to explain macroeconomic phenomena-in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent them as Directed Acyclic Graphs. We apply this approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014307680
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Inflation expectations of Austrian households and firms amid high inflation
Messner, Teresa; Rumler, Fabio - In: Monetary policy & the economy : quarterly review of … (2022/2023) 4/1, pp. 55-66
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014285293
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Asymmetric inflation target credibility
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2025
This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015184731
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Expectations and social decision making : an investigation of gain and loss ultimatum games
Heilman, Renata M.; Ursu, Alexandru; Trif, Sabina R.; … - In: Journal of behavioral and experimental economics 114 (2025), pp. 1-10
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Soft landing and inflation scares
Bullard, James B.; Grimaud, Alex; Salle, Isabelle; … - 2025
We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015191492
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How inheritance expectations impact household savings
Belloc, Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto - 2025
This paper examines how expecting to receive an inheritance impacts household savings decisions. Life-cycle consumption models indicate that the expectation of inheriting should reduce current savings plans for forward-thinking consumers. We investigate how inheritance expectations shape savings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015197073
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Low pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations : why people dislike inflation
Hajdini, Ina; Knotek, Edward S.; Leer, John; Pedemonte, … - 2025
Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015179672
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Bayesian implementation, efficiency, and independence classes
Aspremont, Claude d'; Crémer, Jacques - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323755
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Housing wealth across countries : the role of expectations, institutions and preferences
Le Blanc, Julia; Slacalek, Jirka; White, Matthew N. - 2025
Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. We specify and estimate a life cycle model with risky labor income and house prices in which households face a discrete-continuous choice between renting and owning a house, whose sale is subject to transaction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015211679
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Change in farmer expectations from information surprises in the corn market
Fiechter, Chad; Kuethe, Todd; Langemeier, Michael R.; … - In: American journal of agricultural economics 107 (2025) 1, pp. 231-247
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Long-run inflation expectations
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015329827
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The devil is in the tail : macroeconomic tail risk expectations of firms
Menkhoff, Manuel - 2025
This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of German firms, I elicit (i) the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and (ii) firms’ exposure to such an event. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015396790
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Earnings optimism heuristics and long-term stock returns
Hameed, Allaudeen; Massa, Massimo; Ni, Zhenghui - 2025 - Revised version of 2024/17/FIN
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Network connectivity and R&D competition in a hotelling model : the role of market coverage and consumer expectations
Toshimitsu, Tsuyoshi - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015398256
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Expected balanced uncertain utility
Grant, Simon; Roorda, B.; Yang, Jingni - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 20 (2025) 1, pp. 1-25
We introduce and analyze expected balanced uncertain utility (EBUU) theory. A prior and a balanced outcome-set utility characterize an EBUU decision maker. Conditional on a reference or "balancing value," the latter assigns a utility to each outcome-set. The decision maker associates with each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332578
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Bond supply expectations and the term structure of interest rates
Billio, Monica; Busetto, Francesca; Dufour, Alfonso; … - In: Journal of international money and finance 150 (2025), pp. 1-27
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Momentum mechanisms under heterogeneous beliefs
Yan, Yu; Tong, Yan; Wang, Yiming - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359778
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Household income expectations : the role of shocks and aggregate conditions
Bucciol, Alessandro; Easaw, Joshy Z.; Trucchi, Serena - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359371
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Housing wealth across countries : the role of expectations, institutions and preferences
Le Blanc, Julia; Slacalek, Jirka; White, Matthew N. - 2025
Homeownership rates and holdings of housing wealth differ immensely across countries. Using micro data from five economies, we estimate a life-cycle model with illiquid housing in which households face a discrete-continuous choice between renting and owning a house. We use the model to decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015338136
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Earnings expectations of "first-in family" university students and their role for major choice
Adler, Katharina; Kosse, Fabian; Nagler, Markus; … - 2025
How do students’ earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data from a German university to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323372
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Firm inflation expectations, uncertainty an beliefs
Rangan, Janani; Das, Abhiman - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015393858
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How do we learn about the long run?
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel; … - 2025
Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015374544
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Long-run inflation expectations
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Rast, Sebastian - 2025
Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323365
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Aggregate implications of heterogeneous inflation expectations : the role of individual experience
Pedemonte, Mathieu; Toma, Hiroshi; Verdugo, Esteban - 2025
We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectations-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015396106
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Uncertainty in the formation of inflation expectations in Japan : an analysis using the macroeconomic model Q-JEM
Fukunaga, Ichiro; Kishaba, Yui; Shibata, Nao; Yoneyama, … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015330643
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Firms' beliefs about wage setting
Bertheau, Antoine; Hoeck, Christian Philip - 2025
This paper yields new insights into why similar workers are paid differently by surveying a representative sample of Danish firms and linking responses to administrative data. We find that a substantial minority of firms, about 18 percent, have inaccurate beliefs about their position in the wage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015327676
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Higher order expectations, learning, and sentiment pricing dynamics
Li, Jinfang - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359880
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Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations
Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał; Galiński, Paweł; Krzysztof, … - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015359828
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How inheritance expectations impact household savings
Belloc, Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto - 2025
This paper examines how expecting to receive an inheritance impacts household savings decisions. Life-cycle consumption models indicate that the expectation of inheriting should reduce current savings plans for forward-thinking consumers. We investigate how inheritance expectations shape savings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015198419
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Earnings expectations of "first-in-family" university students and their role for major choice
Adler, Katharina; Kosse, Fabian; Nagler, Markus; … - 2025
How do students' earnings expectations differ by being the first in their family to attend university (FiF) and how do they affect field of study choice? We leverage unique survey and administrative data from a German university to document sizable gaps in expected earnings between FiF and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015206803
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What is the effect of VIX and (un)expected Illiquidity on Sectoral Herding in US REITs during (Non)crises? : evidence from a Markov Switching Model (2014-2022)
Essa, Mohammad Sharik; Giouvris, Evangelos - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015357760
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For better or worse? : subjective expectations and cost-benefit trade-offs in health behavior : an application to lockdown compliance in the United Kingdom
Conti, Gabriella; Giustinelli, Pamela - In: Health economics 34 (2025) 5, pp. 992-1012
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Belief distortions and disagreement about Iinflation
Pagano Giorgianni, Giuseppe; Patella, Valeria - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332461
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Multi-aspect probability model of expected profit subject to uncertainty for managerial decision-making in local transport problems
Holubčík, Martin; Falát, Lukáš; Soviar, Jakub; … - In: Logistics 9 (2025) 1, pp. 1-27
Background: Governments face critical decisions regarding road remediation projects, requiring careful economic evaluation, especially in countries like Slovakia where road infrastructure is crucial for attracting foreign investment. These decisions are complex, involving short-term and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015337474
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Belief shocks and implications of expectations about growth-at-risk
Boeck, Maximilian; Pfarrhofer, Michael - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372769
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Uncovering attention heterogeneity
Boccanfuso, Jérémy; Neri, Luca - 2025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015373959
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