Die WIFO-Studie "Inflation und Außenwirtschaft" untersucht den komplexen Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Außenwirtschaft, insbesondere im Kontext der jüngsten Inflationswelle. Die zentralen Erkenntnisse zeigen, dass der theoretische Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und Außenwirtschaft...

Traditionally, export supply is modelled as a function of production capacity, cost and prices.These factors are not able to fully explain the export performance. The present study includes the domestic demand pressure as an additional explanatory variable in the traditional export supply model...

Aggregate export supply function for US corn and bilateral import functions for US corn by Mexico, Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU are estimated using ARDL estimation techniques. The findings of the study show that export price, technology, and lagged exports impact positively on US corn...

One of the most important recent developments in international trade is the increasing interconnectedness of export production through a vertical trading chain network that streches across many countries, with each country specializing in particular stages of a good’s production. Using...

Assessments of exchange rate misalignments and external imbalances for low-income countries are challenging because methodologies developed for advanced and emerging economies cannot be automatically applied to poorer nations. This paper uses a large database, unique in the set of indicators and...

We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 percent, on average-and this decline is...

Export supply and import demand factors are used to examine the apple exports from China to Thailand. Error Correction Model (ECM) and Cochrane-Orcutt regression are applied to examine the apple trade from 1976 to 2007. China apples export supply to Thailand is only influenced by domestic...

The paper models export taxation of a primary commodity in a large country under two hypotheses about the structure of its export market. The first is perfect competition among exporters, where there is an indefinite number of buyers of the local product and at least a partial pass-through of...

Trade elasticities are often needed in applied country work for various purposes and this paper describes a method for estimating import demand and export supply elasticities withoutusing econometrics. The paper reports empirical estimates of these elasticities for a large number of low, middle,...

This Selected Issues paper provides a real exchange rate and competitiveness assessment for Uruguay. It looks at the recent developments in key external competitiveness indicators such as the bilateral real effective exchange rates, export volumes, export market shares, export unit values, unit...

The purpose of this paper is to assess Madagascar's competitiveness in recent years, using both price and nonprice indicators and an exchange rate assessment of the currency. We estimate the distance between the equilibrium and the actual real exchange rates using three methods: the...

This paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings-based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and...

Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address...

The staff report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia discusses economic developments and policies. The new government’s economic program aims to raise growth further, but does not address these vulnerabilities. Plans to increase the central...

We derive non-cooperative Nash equilibrium (NE) importer and exporter petroleum excise taxes given full within-group tax coordination, but no coordination between groups, assuming that importers do not produce and exporters do not consume petroleum, and petroleum consumption causes a global...

The analysis in this paper suggests that import and export volume elasticities are markedly lower in oil-exporting Middle East and Central Asian countries than in non-oil countries in the region. A key implication of this finding is that a real appreciation of the exchange rate in oil-exporting...

Myanmar's multiple exchange rate system creates various economic distortions. This paper describes the exchange rate practices in Myanmar, develops a model of foreign exchange markets, and presents the efficiency costs imposed by quasi-fiscal operation under the current exchange rate regime. The...

South-South trade agreements are proliferating: Developing countries signed 70 new agreements between 1990 and 2003. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown. This paper focuses on the static effects of South-South preferential trade agreements stemming from changes in trade...

This paper uses disaggregated trade data to assess how the expansion of China's production capacity and its changing production structure may be affecting its trade linkages with other countries. It finds that China is moving away from traditional assembly operations in its processing activities...

China's sectoral trade composition, product quality mix, and import content of processing exports have all changed substantially during the past decade. This has rendered trade elasticities estimated using aggregate data highly unstable, with more recent data pointing to significantly higher...

Efforts to liberalize world trade are increasingly focusing on strengthening the links between low-income countries’ trade policies and their development strategies. However, although greater trade openness promises faster growth for poor countries, it also presents risks to those with...

This paper analyzes Zimbabwe's export performance in recent years and identifies the factors that could improve export performance, from both a quantitative and qualitative perspective. Improving export performance is critical to a turnaround in Zimbabwe's economic situation. The growth rate of...

The erosion of EU trade preferences for bananas and sugar will have immediate negative implications for Belize’s economy. This paper suggests ways to enhance public debt management in Belize. The vulnerability of the banking sector appears relatively modest. However, the current level of...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes whether cyclical factors, including the large real exchange rate appreciation in recent years in New Zealand, can account for the rapidity of the recent rise in import penetration, or whether more lasting structural changes, such as the effects of...

South Africa’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the short-term outlook is broadly favorable, with the main risks arising from a possible worsening of the external environment. The authorities plan to maintain a flexible exchange rate, and to intervene in the foreign exchange...

Improving market access in industrial countries and retaining preferences have been Africa's two key objectives in the Doha Round trade negotiations. This paper argues that African negotiators may have overlooked the potential market access gains in developing countries, where trade barriers...

The paper analyses the potential trade impact of the forthcoming East African Community (EAC) customs union. It examines the trade linkages among the member countries of the EAC and the extent to which the introduction of the EAC common external tariff will liberalize their trade regimes. To...

Preference erosion has become an obstacle to multilateral trade liberalization, as beneficiaries of trade preferences have an incentive to resist reductions in mostfavored- nation (MFN) tariffs. This study identifies middle-income developing countries that are vulnerable to export revenue loss...

This paper evaluates the effects on the Bangladeshi economy of phasing out textile and clothing (T&C) quotas currently maintained by industrial countries. The planned abolition of the quotas under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing in 2005 will alter the competitiveness of various exporting...

India's exports nearly tripled in the 1990s. Decomposing export growth shows that it has been driven by incumbent firms rather than the entry of new firms. By using a new panel on Indian firms and estimating a dynamic discrete-choice model of the firm's decision to export, we find evidence that...

This paper reexamines Korea's trade flows. Using the standard demand-based models, the paper finds that owing to the increasing share of electrical and electronic products (EEPs) in total exports, the income elasticity of the Korean export demand has fallen sharply while its price elasticity has...

The main aim of this paper is investigation of the interplay between Croatian export supply and the real exchange rate, i.e. the relative prices. We analyse here the price elasticity of export supply through modelling both the short- and the long-run structures of the model. Additionally, the...

This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain...

Although theory suggests that the real exchange rate should depreciate after a credible trade liberalization but could appreciate temporarily with a noncredible one, little empirical evidence exists. Unlike existing studies that use either indirect tests or unreliable openness measures, this...

This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary and tariffs have a larger...

Incorporating intermediate inputs into a small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that the ROO could improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes recent economic developments and policies in Madagascar. Real GDP growth in 2001 was 6 percent, continuing the trend of sustained increase in per capita real GDP that began during the period 1997–2000. The secondary and tertiary sectors were the main...

Under imperfect competition, Russia and Ukraine may choose to deviate from optimal tax considerations which suggest use of a destination-based VAT regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on intra-CIS energy trade....

This paper describes the United States recently enacted Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and assesses its quantitative impact on African exports. The AGOA expands the scope of preferential access of Africa's exports to the United States in key areas such as clothing. However, its medium...

This paper examines different explanations-initial conditions, openness to trade and FDI, and institutions-of the Mauritian growth experience since the mid-1970s. We show that arguments based on openness to trade and FDI are either misleading or incomplete, and the transmission mechanism...

This paper looks at the responsiveness of a country's export supply to exchange rate changes and measures its quantitative importance by breaking down export adjustments between changes in output levels by existing exporters (intensive margin) and movements due to changes in the number of...