This study examines external debt pass-through to inflation in Nigeria using annual data from 1981 to 2020 based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. The results reveal that an increase in external debt service leads to a significant depreciation of the exchange rate, which leads to...

Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of...

Being indebted represents significant risks associated with global financial instability in a world where financial stability hangs precariously between debt and economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) casts a critical eye over countries navigating the perilous seas of fiscal...

This study explores perceptions of public debt management among Debt Management Offices (DMOs) in low- and middle-income countries. Based on a survey conducted in October 2023 covering 27 countries, it examines DMOs' views on the relationship between public debt and economic growth, the...

ypical debt sustainability metrics characterize Kenya's sovereign debt as "unsustainable" since around 2019. Further, the data show that, over time, commercial banks' private sector lending has declined while lending to the government has grown. Given these observations, this study examines...

We examine the effects of debt distribution characteristics, specifically skewness and maturity concentration, on sovereign yields across OECD countries over the period 1995Q1 to 2020Q4. After computing specific Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients, we find that positive skewness generally exerts...

Using a monthly panel dataset of individuals' debt, we show that house price changes can explain a significant fraction of personal debt composition dynamics. We exploit the variation in local house price growth as shocks to homeowners' housing wealth to study the consequential adjustment of...

Following modest growth of 0.4% in 2023, the Commission's 2024 autumn forecast projects real GDP to rise by 0.9% in 2024. Economic activity is expected to accelerate to 1.5% in 2025 driven by stronger consumption and a rebound in investment from its contraction in 2024. In 2026, the economy is...

South Africa has been struggling with high levels of gross debt. The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened as the government has had to adjust its budget continuously, resulting in fiscal stance and debt sustainability becoming a matter of concern. This research aims to assess the possible asymmetric...

This research uses linear correlation and time-series analysis to examine the evolution of the external debt accumulated in periods of current account deficits and reserve purchases. Statistical data of GIPS countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), Ireland, and the United States show that...

Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign's willingness to...

This paper rethinks development finance in Tajikistan through the lens of fiscal sociology, arguing that sustained reliance on foreign aid and external borrowing may weaken state-society trust and erode institutional legitimacy. Anchored in the political economy of development finance, the paper...

There is a growing consensus that sovereign debt challenges in Africa are no longer only an issue of poor debt contraction and management practices, but that the sovereign debt architecture itself needs reform. Drawing on existing data, the literature and interviews with experts this study...

Three years of war have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll. Efforts to end the war, and potential changes to international support retain the exceptionally high uncertainty to the outlook. Yet, the authorities' commitment to reforms and fulfillment of all necessary Fund...

Liechtenstein's fiscal framework has ensured surpluses, virtually no public debt, and accumulation of large fiscal buffers. Specialized, export-oriented industries and financial services based on private banking and wealth management underpin economic activity and high living standards,...

Membership of the European Union (EU), adoption of the euro, and integration in global value chains, have contributed to a convergence towards living standards of more advanced EU countries. However, progress has slowed in recent years, and like many other EU countries, Slovakia is facing...

Economic recovery has continued, but growth remains subdued. Structural and governance weaknesses, ongoing internal conflicts and security concerns, social tensions around presidential elections in October 2025, and climate hazards continue to hinder the growth outlook, which is also unfavorably...

The economy has been resilient to a series of shocks, but growth is slowing, and disinflation is facing headwinds. The labor market has been strong but shows early signs of cooling. Labor-cost competitiveness has declined with wage growth outpacing sluggish productivity. Successive shocks have...

Following a strong rebound in economic activity in 2021, real GDP is estimated to have expanded by 2.8 percent last year. Meanwhile, inflation jumped to 7¼ percent, and the current account deficit rose sharply partly reflecting higher commodity prices and despite a narrowing of the fiscal...

At the request of the authorities, a joint World Bank-IMF technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan during October 9-20, 2023 to help the authorities in developing a mediumterm debt management strategy (MTDS), designing an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP), and to train the...

Political uncertainty remains high with another change of government in July 2024-the fifth since the beginning of the Fund-supported program. Substantial flooding and landslides in September 2024 further weighed on sluggish domestic demand, though conversely helping strengthen the external...

Healthy tourist arrivals and an expansionary fiscal stance have supported the economy and helped reduce unemployment, while inflation is declining rapidly on the back of lower commodity prices. The financial sector is broadly healthy, but credit growth has been sluggish, except in the rapidly...

The economy recovered in 2024 as oil sector rebounded from its slump. However, fiscal consolidation efforts somewhat waned, auguring the start of a political cycle. Buffers built during the 2018-21 EFF-supported program are being eroded by fiscal slippages from higher capital expenditures and a...

Real GDP growth stabilized at 4.2 percent in 2024. Led by food and energy prices, year-on-year inflation persisted, rising from 7.3 percent in March 2024 to 8.6 percent in December 2024 as deteriorating road and electricity infrastructure continued to weigh on transportation and production...

El Salvador has recovered well from the pandemic, supported by robust remittances and buoyant tourism flows, amid a sharp improvement in the country's security situation. Inflation has fallen and the external imbalances have narrowed more recently, consistent with a gradual improvement in public...

Malaysia's economic performance has significantly improved in 2024, supported by strong domestic and external demand. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased. The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and...

Sri Lanka underwent a political transition with presidential and parliamentary elections in late 2024. The new authorities expressed commitment to the program. Reform efforts are bearing fruit with growth recovering, low inflation, increased revenue collection, and reserves accumulation. By...

This study uses the 2021 wave of the FINRA National Financial Capability Study dataset to examine the association between large and unexpected income drops experienced by individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic and an individual's use of stimulus checks to settle debt obligations. This study...

The current research examines the impact of different macroeconomic indicators on Djibouti's external debt from 1990 to 2022 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The empirical model provides evidence that economic growth, trade, and government expenditure have a positive and...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation with New Zealand discusses that tight monetary policy has helped bring inflation back to target after a prolonged period of elevated price pressures, but at the expense of growth. A nascent recovery is underway as monetary policy is easing again. House prices...

This paper highlights the First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The SMP takes into account Haiti's fragility and capacity constraints, linked to security. Haiti faces a multidimensional crisis with a challenging outlook which is highly uncertain. The country is affected by both...

This paper presents Republic of Kosovo's Fourth reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Kosovo's economic performance continues to be strong. In 2024, growth was 4.4 percent, driven by household consumption, supported by strong...

This paper presents Pakistan's First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainable Facility (RSF). The IMF Executive Board completed the first...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Costa Rica has achieved remarkable economic progress due to its very strong fundamentals, policies, and policy frameworks. Such factors are expected to support robust growth going forward notwithstanding external headwinds. The economic outlook is...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that following the post-pandemic rebound, St. Kitts and Nevis' economy is facing challenges. Real gross domestic product growth moderated to 1.5 percent in 2024, reflecting lower contributions from tourism and government services, while inflation eased...

This paper presents Mali's Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Request for a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Mali's economy faces climate shocks amid security and humanitarian crisis, and tight financing. Recent flooding damaged infrastructure and agriculture,...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guyana's economy has grown rapidly over the past two decades, progressing from low-middle-income to high-income status-the only Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative participant to achieve this milestone. Oil production is fast ramping...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that economic growth in North Macedonia is gaining momentum in an environment of increased uncertainty. A credible fiscal strategy is essential to rebuilding buffers, reducing debt and ensuring compliance with fiscal rules. This is key to maintaining...

This paper presents People's Republic of China's Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) report. The FSSA found that since the last FSAP in 2017, the authorities have made notable progress in strengthening financial supervision and regulation, continuously implementing international...

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that following a slowdown in 2023, growth accelerated, and inflation picked up in Azerbaijan. The decline in oil and gas prices reduced the 2024 external surplus, but fiscal consolidation resumed. Looking ahead, growth is projected to moderate and...

This paper presents Suriname's Ninth Review Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. The objectives of the program have been broadly achieved. The economy is growing,...