We provide experimental evidence on how fiscal news shapes households' expectations and spending behavior. Using a new survey of ~11,000 Korean individuals linked to automatically collected high-frequency spending data, we elicit respondents' fiscal and macroeconomic beliefs and randomly provide...

New Zealand's population is ageing. Public spending on public pensions (NZ Superannuation) and health are particularly sensitive to this trend and are expected to increase accordingly. Current and future government policies aimed at addressing this challenge will not only influence macroeconomic...

I develop a model-based definition of time-varying sovereign bond safety, and apply it empirically by constructing a news-based index, the FLY, that measures global safe-assets demand. The FLY captures flight-to-safety episodes, the savings glut, and natural interest rate declines. Estimated FLY...

Thailand's 2024 excise tax reform aimed to stimulate the tourism economy through the elimination of import tariffs and the reduction in excise rates on wine. This study evaluates the causal economic and distributional impacts of this policy intervention. The analysis employs a quasi-experimental...

In Morocco, the increasing public expenditure on essential sectors, such as education, does not always lead to improved outcomes, highlighting a significant gap between resource allocation and quality enhancement. This study examines the efficiency of public expenditure in education, health, and...

This study investigates the structural relationship between inflation and key macroeconomic fundamentals in Türkiye, an emerging economy characterized by persistently high and divergent inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for the 2011-2024 period, we apply the Kapetanios, Shin, and Snell...

South Africa has a relatively well-developed social protection system for a middle-income country. Despite its roots in the country's racially discriminatory past, the system has been repurposed post-apartheid to address deep poverty and severe inequality. This paper explores key characteristics...

This paper critically reviews the empirical and structural literature on the effects of income taxation on informal economic activity. Although labor taxation has been widely studied in relation to labor market outcomes, evidence linking income taxes to informality remains fragmented and uneven...

We analyze the sources of the pandemic-era inflation surge in the euro area using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. By applying narrative, sign, zero, and inequality restrictions, this study is the first that jointly analyzes the inflationary effects of energy and non-energy supply...

Using quarterly data for the period Q1:2000–Q4:2024, the study examines whether elections in EU‑27 member states shape the composition and timing of fiscal policy strategies, and how political, fiscal and institutional constraints condition these dynamics. Employing a two‑way...

We study the fiscal consequences of large military buildups. To do so, we assemble the Global Budget Database, a comprehensive dataset of disaggregated central government finances for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. We identify 114 episodes of military spending booms, in peace and war, and...

Theoretical analysis, empirical development and case studies show that room to manoeuvre stabilising macroeconomic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in the years 2020 and 2021 were fundamentally different in the Global South and Global North. The latter used extensive discretionary fiscal and...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favourable impact of unconventional monetary policy while it...

In recent years, because of the 2008 financial crisis and the evolution of the sovereign debt markets, there has been a significant increase in interest in understanding the factors that determine the risk premium, becoming a key indicator of the financial stability of countries, and a measure...

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8, Ireland, Slovenia, and Spain set up public Asset Management Companies (AMCs), purchasing delinquent loans equal to 44%, 16%, and 10% of GDP, respectively. Though deemed successful, it's unclear if this was de facto traditional capital and...

This study empirically explores the dynamic effect of MP and FP on the economic growth of Thailand from Q1:2003 to Q2:2024. In this study, data analysis was conducted using an advanced sequence of the econometric modeling approach to guarantee that the estimated results were more consistent and...

This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic-financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP),...

The green transition of the EU economy will require substantial investment to 2030 and beyond. Estimates of green investment needs vary between institutions and are surrounded by high uncertainty, but they all point to a requirement for faster and more ambitious action. Green investment will...

We study the aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of fiscal policy responses to Germany’s energy crisis using a novel Ten-Agents New-Keynesian (TENK) model. The energy crisis, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to sharp increases in energy prices, inflation, and significant...

This paper provides a novel way for instructors to teach about the perils of a large National Debt, which is currently $36 trillion. We provide a detailed lesson plan that utilizes balloons to illustrate the possible paths a society can take to address this issue. The lesson plan consists of an...

Pro-cyclical fiscal policy is considered harmful. Nonetheless, pro-cyclicality is widespread and the cyclicality of fiscal policy isstrongly heterogenous in advanced economies. This paper investigates how differences in the cyclicality of fiscal policy can be understood through the lens of...