The green transition of the EU economy will require substantial investment to 2030 and beyond. Estimates of green investment needs vary between institutions and are surrounded by high uncertainty, but they all point to a requirement for faster and more ambitious action. Green investment will...

This study empirically explores the dynamic effect of MP and FP on the economic growth of Thailand from Q1:2003 to Q2:2024. In this study, data analysis was conducted using an advanced sequence of the econometric modeling approach to guarantee that the estimated results were more consistent and...

This paper presents a novel approach to prognosing European economic crises through the development of an economic-financial risk sensitivity model. The model integrates key macroeconomic indicators such as government deficit (NETGDP), GINI coefficient, social protection expenditure (ExSocP),...

We study the aggregate, distributional, and welfare effects of fiscal policy responses to Germany’s energy crisis using a novel Ten-Agents New-Keynesian (TENK) model. The energy crisis, compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, led to sharp increases in energy prices, inflation, and significant...

In the early 2020s sharp surge of inflation, unprecedentedly high levels of government debt and deficits fueled attention for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL). This theoretical framework for fiscally induced inflation is well-known and controversially discussed. However, empirical...

We assess how countries’ fiscal policies during COVID-19 pandemic influenced the effects of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on sovereign bond Option-Adjusted Spreads. Using a cross-sectional regression model with country and time-fixed effects, we analyse a sample of 1,368...

During the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries used short-time work (subsidized reductions in working hours) to preserve employment. This paper documents that short-time work affects the behavior of firms (supply) and households (demand). First, using household survey data from Germany, we show...

Theoretical analysis, empirical development and case studies show that room to manoeuvre stabilising macroeconomic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in the years 2020 and 2021 were fundamentally different in the Global South and Global North. The latter used extensive discretionary fiscal and...

This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression...

This paper provides a novel way for instructors to teach about the perils of a large National Debt, which is currently $36 trillion. We provide a detailed lesson plan that utilizes balloons to illustrate the possible paths a society can take to address this issue. The lesson plan consists of an...

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-8, Ireland, Slovenia, and Spain set up public Asset Management Companies (AMCs), purchasing delinquent loans equal to 44%, 16%, and 10% of GDP, respectively. Though deemed successful, it's unclear if this was de facto traditional capital and...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favourable impact of unconventional monetary policy while it...

This paper provides a critical assessment of the new EU fiscal framework, with a focus on its implications for public expenditure on the twin green and digital transition. According to the reformed rules, member states may commit to a package of investment and reform to extend the fiscal...

This paper revisits the empirical analysis of Nakamura and Steinsson (2014). I reconstruct and extend the original dataset to cover the period 1966-2019, harmonizing two major sources of data: the Defense Contract Action Data System (DCADS) and USAspending.gov. I discuss how to aggregate these...

This paper investigates the implications of the European Union's revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconometric model of the Italian economy (MITA), we...

The European Union is grappling with the challenge of increasing defence expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The European Commission has proposed activating the national escape clause available under the SGP to accommodate defence spending...

In recent years, because of the 2008 financial crisis and the evolution of the sovereign debt markets, there has been a significant increase in interest in understanding the factors that determine the risk premium, becoming a key indicator of the financial stability of countries, and a measure...

The natural, equilibrium, or neutral Interest rate - or short r* - has been controversial among economists ever since it was introduced almost 150 years ago. As a conceptual tool that cannot be directly measured but only estimated by models, its value depends on the relevance for explaining...

The COVID-19 pandemic was a health, economic, and financial crisis. The aviation sector was one of the most severely hit. Despite the extensive literature on this, COVID-Finance has been focused on stock returns, neglecting what could be learnt from the spreads of airlines' credit default swaps...

This paper investigates the interplay between discretionary fiscal policy and inflation in the euro area, emphasizing the role of public debt levels in modulating this relationship. It explores how fiscal expansions or contractions influence inflationary pressures, particularly under varying...

As one of the Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLES), Vietnam is maintaining rapid economic development at the cost of environmental degradation. However, the impact of economic growth and the role of fiscal policy tools in Vietnam's pollution equation remains unclear. This study uses a...

This paper quanti.es the future implications of repayment of bailout loans received by Greece from the EU in the previous decade. These debt obligations amount today to 240 billion euros or 70% of the country’s total public debt and have to be repaid by 2070. This is investigated in a dynamic...

Drumetz and Pfister (2021) make several claims about the inadequacy and fallacies of Modern Money Theory (MMT) and conclude that MMT is nothing more than a political manifesto; there are no theoretical and empirical foundations behind it. This paper addresses this last point by focusing on the...

Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-9, there has been a shift in mainstream economic policy modeling toward "realism," with dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models partly diverging from the representative agent framework, and large-scale, New-Keynesian structural models...

During the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries used short-time work (subsidized reductions in working hours) to preserve employment. This paper documents that short-time work affects the behavior of firms (supply) and households (demand). First, using household survey data from Germany, we show...