This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

In course of the current energy crisis, the consequences of increasing gas prices are heavily discussed. To date, however, there is no evidence of the impact of gas prices on the labor market. Using administrative employment data from 2012-2020, we find for manufacturing establishments a gas...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November letzten Jahres...

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach - disaggregating...

Gasspeicher sind ein zentraler Baustein für eine sichere Energieversorgung und damit für eine funktionierende Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Derzeit bietet der Markt jedoch kaum Anreize, die Gasspeicher zu nutzen oder in deren Erhalt zu investieren. Im Gegenteil: Seit November 2024 beobachten...

We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of...

The gas price explosion during the 2021/22 European energy crisis prompted a shift from gas- to coal-fired electricity production. Empirical evidence on the environmental and health consequences of such a fuel-price shock - as opposed to policy reforms - is scarce. We fill this gap by...

This Paper analyses the results of the trading data in 2024 for the European traded gas hubs, to give a fuller picture of the recovery after the very turbulent period from 2020 to 2022, where the various hubs now stand and, more importantly, to establish whether the Dutch TTF can now credibly be...

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The...

The dependency on imported essential production inputs poses a threat of abrupt price hikes and shortages, potentially triggered by political events. The energy crisis resulting from the Russian war of aggression is an example. This paper investigates whether governments should bolster...

This paper aims to assess the role of expectations as a determinant of the real price of natural gas. To measure expectations-driven speculative demand three approaches are followed, which are based respectively on using natural gas inventories consistently with the theory of storage (Kilian and...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

We use micro-level data on fuel consumption, mileage, and travel mode to study plug-in hybrid drivers’ response to fuel prices. When fuel prices rise, plug-in hybrids reduce fuel consumption more than gasoline and diesel cars. They do not reduce their mileage but increase electric recharging,...

We propose a structural vector-autoregressive model for the German natural gas market to investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. We combine conventional and narrative sign restrictions to leverage information about supply cuts for identification and find...

We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while...

The market for internationally traded gas has now globalized, assisted by the advent of US LNG from the Lower-48. The volume of flexible LNG has increased sharply since 2016 and was instrumental in the diversion of LNG cargoes to Europe, following the loss of Russian pipeline gas in 2022. In a...

This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third...

This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third...

European gas markets experienced a very turbulent period from 2020 to 2022, which led to the lowest ever northwest European gas prices at the end of May 2020, then several strong rallies led to four successive ‘highest ever’ prices, the most recent being in August 2022. After each of those...

In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and rising gas prices, the "gas Price brake" was implemented in Germany. We employ a difference-in-differences Approach and analyze data on offered gas contracts from two countries with comparable gas markets, where one country (Germany) has...

In course of the current energy crisis, the consequences of increasing gas prices are heavily discussed. To date, however, there is no evidence of the impact of gas prices on the labor market. Using administrative employment data from 2012–2020, we find for manufacturing establishments a gas...

The gas price shock has been a major contributor to inflation in Germany. In this context, Dullien and Weber (2022a, b, c) proposed a two-tier pricing scheme for natural gas in the spring of 2022 that lowers the price for a base quota through a subsidy while maintaining high market prices on the...

This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine the relationships between the intensity of drilling (i.e. investment) for natural gas production, natural gas withdrawals, economic activity and natural gas prices in the United States. The results show that the reaction...

To help German households and firms with exploding energy costs, the German government is about to implement a new transfer scheme called "gas price brake." A unique feature of this energy price relief measure is that both households and the industry receive a transfer that increases in one's...

In the past few decades the US has seen a large increase in the number of cities offering light rail, heavy rail and commuter rail transit. At the same time, ridership on these rail systems has not increased as fast. Looking at annual ratios of ridership to track mileage for each mode over the...

In this paper, we examine the relationship between crude oil and natural gas prices. Using smooth transition regression modelling approach, we find that both the long-run and short-run relationships between oil and gas prices are more aptly modelled by simultaneous structural breaks and...

This paper examines the causal impact of the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict on natural gas prices around the world using a variant DID (difference-in-differences) approach. Our estimates suggest that all prices in the four major international natural gas markets, namely Title Transfer Facility...

Natural gas is an important energy input for heating and electricity production in Germany. In recent years natural gas prices have soared and volatility has increased. The combination of lower domestic natural gas production in Europe and competition for liquefied natural gas in the global...

This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market-wide...

In course of the current energy crisis, the consequences of increasing gas prices are heavily discussed. To date, however, there is no evidence of the impact of gas prices on the labor market. Using administrative employment data from 2012 2020, we find for manufacturing establishments a gas...

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many countries have pledged to end or restrict their oil and gas imports to curtail Moscow's revenues and hinder its war effort. Thus, the European ministers agreed to trigger a cap on the gas price. To detect the importance of the price cap for gas, we...