[enter Abstract Body]This paper shows a new methodology to observe mathematically and graphically the vulnerability of the world economy in case of a pandemic (COVID-19) or war (Russian-Ukraine War). The main objective of this research is to evaluate the economic damage levels generated from war...

Which region(s) will come to dominate the world economy? This paper develops the Global Gaidar Model (GGM), a 17-region, 2-skills, 100-period OLG model, to address this and other questions. The model is carefully calibrated to 2017 UN demographic and IMF fiscal data. Productivity growth and its...

Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. In order to evaluate the aggregate and local economic consequences of higher temperatures, we propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution. Our...

Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. In order to evaluate the aggregate and local economic consequences of higher temperatures, we propose a dynamic economic assessment model of the world economy with high spatial resolution. Our...

This paper adds international migration and remittances into the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). FSGM is a global general equilibrium model with endogenous primary commodity markets. A method to estimate the structural dynamics of major remitter regions is proposed. The dynamics...

This paper adds international migration and remittances into the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). FSGM is a global general equilibrium model with endogenous primary commodity markets. A method to estimate the structural dynamics of major remitter regions is proposed. The dynamics...

We examine whether knowledge of in-sample co-movement across countries can be used in a more systematic way to improve forecast accuracy at the national level. In particular, we ask if a model with common international business cycle factors adds marginal predictive power compared to a domestic...

This paper develops the seminal ideas of Nicholas Kaldor into a Centre-Periphery framework of the world economy where the Centre faces the problem of surplus capacity and effective demand and the Periphery faces a capacity constraint. In such a framework, Harrod-type 'foreign trade multiplier'...

A long strand of literature has shown that the world has become more global. Yet, the recent Great Global Recession turned out to be hard to predict, with forecasters across the world committing large forecast errors. We examine whether knowledge of in-sample co-movement across countries could...

This paper analyzes the potential welfare gains of introducing a technology transfer from Annex I to non-Annex I in order to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on a numerical general equilibrium model for a world economy comprising two regions, North (Annex I) and South...

Deforestation has long been heavily studied; several proximate and underlying causes behind the global decrease of forest extent have been discussed. However, systematic analyses of positive examples are sparse, even if forestation is happening in almost 70 countries (on approximately 40% of the...

Deforestation has long been heavily studied; several proximate and underlying causes behind the global decrease of forest extent have been discussed. However, systematic analyses of positive examples are sparse, even if forestation is happening in almost 70 countries (on approximately 40% of the...

Deforestation has long been heavily studied; several proximate and underlying causes behind the global decrease of forest extent have been discussed. However, systematic analyses of positive examples are sparse, even if forestation is happening in almost 70 countries (on approximately 40% of the...

This report documents the updated version of the Partial Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Simulation (PEATSim) model developed by USDA’s Economic Research Service. PEATSim is a global model, covering 31 commodities and 27 countries/regions. The model, consistent with economic theory, provides a...

The paper describes revisions to the trend employment component of the production function underpinning long-term economic scenarios. Starting with historical age and sex-specific employment rates, a novel approach is developed to correct for cyclical effects using the country-level employment...

We examine the relative benefits of policy aimed at mitigating GHG emissions in Canada and globally. We find that while a carbon tax that holds the stock of global emissions below the 550 ppm level would yield positive net benefits for the world economy, the impact of such a tax on the Canadian...

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of...

The paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Using a modified version of the RICE model of the global economy and climate, we perform Monte Carlo simulations, where full sets of...

This paper employs (1) a three-sector structuralist model of development with informal and formal activities and (2) a global one-sector model with demand determined outputs and bargained distribution to investigate whether India's growth performance can be sustained, where the country might...

Statistical bias correction methods for numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures over India in the medium-range time scale (up to 5 days) are proposed in this study. The objective of bias correction is to minimize the systematic error of the next forecast...

To assess the importance of economic interdependence and the potential gains from policy coordination in the European area, this paper analyzes the international transmission of policies and disturbances in a rational expectation dynamic general equilibrium simulation model of the work economy,...

The photovoltaic (PV) power industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and associated with that growth has been a decline in costs. There are indications that PV has already reached cost-parity with power off the grid in some markets and projections that it will attain such grid parity in many...