This report presents the findings of a study to analyze Guinea-Bissau's HCI indicators and its human capital policies across three sectors - health, education, and social protection. The report highlights a deep analysis of sociodemographic variables such as age, sex, income, and geographical...

Guinea-Bissau continues to face a challenging economic and political environment. Recent downward shocks to cashew exports are adding pressures to the balance of payments and fiscal revenue. Tightening of regional financial conditions continue to raise borrowing costs. Since the political crisis...

This paper presents Guinea-Bissau's Sixth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and financing assurances review. The authorities' commitment to a range of challenging policy reforms is starting to show some results. They...

The Guinea-Bissau Economic Update monitors significant recent economic developments in the country, highlighting the key structural challenges Guinea-Bissau faces in its pursuit of inclusive and sustained growth

A political crisis in December 2023 resulted in another change in the government. In December 2023, the former Minister of Finance and Secretary of State of Treasury from the opposition-led government were arrested over corruption charges related to settlement of cross-arrears and NPLs of the...

This report represents a comprehensive assessment of Guinea-Bissau's PPR capacity conducted by the World Bank. The report details key gaps and findings about Guinea-Bissau's health system and sets out priority recommendations to strengthen its PPR capacity and health system resilience. Key...

This report presents the findings of a study to analyze Guinea-Bissau's HCI indicators and its human capital policies across three sectors— health, education, and social protection. The report highlights a deep analysis of sociodemographic variables such as age, sex, income, and geographical...

The Systematic Country Diagnostic Update (the Update) revisits Guinea-Bissau's development challenges and the prioritization of policy actions to make sustained progress towards decreasing fragility, reducing poverty, and achieving inclusive economic growth. Leveraging new data and analytics,...

This paper analyzes Guinea-Bissau's Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Augmentation of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Guinea Bissau's...

Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state facing significant development challenges, including sustaining the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply disruptions, and the global economic slowdown. The IMF Board approved the First Review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement in May 2023....

This paper focuses on Guinea-Bissau's the First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Program performance was satisfactory with all but one end-January 2023 quantitative performance criteria met for end-January 2023 and all structural measures at end-March 2023 for the second review...

This paper presents Guinea-Bissau's Request for a Three-year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The ECF-supported program aims to anchor macroeconomic stability, putting the budget back on track and ensuring medium-term debt sustainability, while continuing progress on...

This paper examines the determinants of cashew nut exports in Guinea-Bissau. Based on a hybrid export function with both supply and demand components, we estimate a time series Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model from 1973 to 2020. The main short- and long-run determinants of cashew...

This paper analyzes the role of social networks in the diffusion of knowledge and adoption of cultivation techniques, from trainees to the wider community, in the context of an extension project in Guinea-Bissau. In order to test for social learning, we exploit a detailed census of households...

This paper analyses the pathways of technology diffusion through social networks, following the experimental introduction of new technologies in Guinea-Bissau. In the context of an agricultural extension project, we document both the direct effects of this intervention and subsequent diffusion...

Many Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, including Guinea-Bissau, lack the requisite enabling environment to capture a larger fraction of the global digital economy or benefit from its gains and are thus at increasing risk of being left behind. Rapid digital transformation is reshaping the...

Guinea-Bissau is currently one of the least developed countries in the world, ranking 178th out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index (2019). We study the economic and human development outlook to 2040. We show that economic growth will improve the human condition in Guinea-Bissau...

This study aims to analyze the economic impacts of infrastructure investment in Africa, focusing on the Guinea-Bissau economy. Through a dynamic CGE model, we find that the natural resource revenues (or aid)-funded infrastructure investments generate externalities that increase factor returns....

This paper discusses Guinea-Bissau's 2002 Article IV Consultation and Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program. Guinea-Bissau's economy has recovered well from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Growth is projected to reach 3.8 percent in 2022 supported by a continued strong...

After two years of protracted political turmoil and delays in reforms, the authorities put in place in 2021 an ambitious fiscal consolidation program to ensure debt sustainability while creating fiscal space to address vast developmental needs. In late July, Fund Management approved a 9-month...

After two years of protracted political turmoil and delays in reforms, the authorities put in place in 2021 an ambitious fiscal consolidation program to ensure debt sustainability while creating fiscal space to address vast developmental needs. In late July, a 9-month SMP was approved to support...

Guinea Bissau is a fragile state with a long history of political instability. Poverty is high with about 67 percent of the population living below the poverty line of USD 1.90 per day. The economy relies heavily on the production and exports of unprocessed cashew nuts, making most households...

Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state with considerable needs to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and address developmental challenges. After an estimated 1.4 percent of GDP contraction in 2020, a modest recovery of about 3.3 percent is projected for 2021 on the back of higher cashew exports, the gradual...

The Country Opinion Survey in Guinea-Bissau assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in gaining a better understanding of how stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media,...

The impact of occult belief on legitimacy of the state and on aid for democratization in Africa: Among politicians and development experts in Africa alike there is a growing awareness of the never decreasing importance of the belief in magic and witchcraft on political decision making since...

In most sub-Saharan countries, development is severely limited by the scarcity of electricity and fuel for transportation as well as the fragility of institutional organizations. Bioenergy is a natural candidate for the diversification of the energy matrix and the socioeconomic development in...

Guinea-Bissau’s massive economic potential has not so far translated into better livelihoods for its population. Growth per capita has averaged less than 1 percent per year over 2000-2019. This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the factors behind the economic stagnation. An interplay of...

Guinea-Bissau is among the world's most unequal countries. Its use of the CFA currency, pegged to the euro and controlled by France, raises continuing concern . This paper investigates the impact of joining the C.F.A zone (1997) on Guinea-Bissau per capita GDP, fisheries capture, and rice...

Real growth is expected to reach 5.2 percent in 2020 as the severe impact of the pandemic in the country was partially mitigated by a resilient mining sector. Presidential elections were held on October 18, giving President Conde an outright victory. Such results were contested by the opposition...

A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) visited Guinea-Bissau during February 3 to 7, 2020. The mission was conducted in Bissau at the request of the National Directorate for Guinea-Bissau of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO-DNGB). The mission...

Political instability has limited the development of Guinea-Bissau's institutional capacity. For example, tensions between the President and the leadership of the country's largest political party led to six changes of government between the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections. Previous IMF...

The relative impact and interaction of cash transfers and nutrition-related measures to enhance children's growth are unknown. The objective of this paper is to describe and analyze indicators for a baseline population that is participating in a randomized controlled trial with crossover design...

This study discussed the institutional framework for combating drug trafficking in the West Africa sub-region with particular focus on Guinea-Bissau, Guinea-Conakry and Nigeria. The framework ranges from the international, through regional, sub-regional to national levels. This study employed a...

There has been a rising trend of insecurity and conflict dimensions in the West African region beginning from 2010. This has sparked concerns that such threats could derail hard-won economic gains and undermine future development in the region. This study employed a desk-review research approach...

This paper analyzes the role of social networks in the diffusion of knowledge and adoption of cultivation techniques, from trainees to the wider community, in the context of an extension project in Guinea-Bissau. In order to test for social learning, we exploit a detailed census of households...