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Year of publication
Subject
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Import demand 933 Importnachfrage 905 Außenhandelselastizität 228 Trade elasticity 228 Schätzung 205 Estimation 203 import demand 179 Theorie 173 Theory 173 Cointegration 134 Kointegration 127 United States 120 USA 119 Import 108 Export 89 Economic growth 72 Welt 71 World 70 China 69 Japan 67 Einkommenselastizität der Nachfrage 66 Income elasticity of demand 66 international trade 63 International economy 59 Internationale Wirtschaft 59 Wirtschaftswachstum 56 Price elasticity 52 terms of trade 52 trading partners 52 Preiselastizität 51 Estimation theory 46 Schätztheorie 46 EU countries 42 EU-Staaten 42 Trade liberalization 42 balance of payments 42 domestic demand 42 Handelsliberalisierung 40 Exchange rate 39 Wechselkurs 39
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Online availability
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Free 416 Undetermined 102 CC license 10
Type of publication
All
Article 571 Book / Working Paper 523 Other 3 Journal 1
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 467 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 467 Graue Literatur 191 Non-commercial literature 191 Working Paper 160 Arbeitspapier 155 Aufsatz im Buch 29 Book section 29 Amtsdruckschrift 24 Government document 24 Hochschulschrift 16 Thesis 16 Article 9 Collection of articles written by one author 5 Sammlung 5 Bibliografie enthalten 4 Bibliography included 4 Case study 2 Collection of articles of several authors 2 Fallstudie 2 Glossar enthalten 2 Glossary included 2 Market information 2 Marktinformation 2 Sammelwerk 2 Conference paper 1 Congress Report 1 Dissertation u.a. Prüfungsschriften 1 Interview 1 Konferenzbeitrag 1 Mikroform 1 Reprint 1 Systematic review 1 Übersichtsarbeit 1
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Language
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English 931 Undetermined 125 German 19 Spanish 10 Hungarian 5 Portuguese 5 Czech 2 Russian 1 Turkish 1
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Author
All
Muhammad, Andrew 20 Moutos, Thomas 19 Arize, Augustine Chuck 12 Feenstra, Robert C. 11 Hummels, David 11 Malley, James R. 10 Tang, Tuck Cheong 10 Choi, Yo Chul 7 Emran, M. Shahe 7 Federico, Stefano 7 Katsimē, Margarita 7 Kee, Hiau Looi 7 McCombie, John S. L. 7 Narayan, Paresh Kumar 7 Nicita, Alessandro 7 Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés 7 Sinha, Dipendra 7 Spies, Julia 7 Thaver, Ranjini L. 7 Alam, Shaista 6 Chinn, Menzie David 6 Crucini, Mario J. 6 Goldberg, Pinelopi K. 6 Janda, Karel 6 Jones, Keithly G. 6 Khandelwal, Amit 6 Kohli, Ulrich R. 6 Mah, Jai S. 6 Olarreaga, Marcelo 6 Pavcnik, Nina 6 Adam, Antonis 5 Agbola, Frank W. 5 Belke, Ansgar 5 Chong, Xiang 5 Davis, Scott 5 Fonsah, Esendugue Greg 5 Hamori, Shigeyuki 5 Katz, Barbara G. 5 Narayan, Seema 5 Owen, Joel 5
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Institution
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) 86 International Monetary Fund 25 USA / Agriculture and Trade Analysis Division 21 National Bureau of Economic Research 20 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association - AAEA 7 Southern Agricultural Economics Association - SAEA 5 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 5 USA / Economic Research Service 3 Università commerciale Luigi Bocconi / Centro studi sui processi di internazionalizzazione 3 Deutschland / Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft 2 European Association of Agricultural Economists - EAAE 2 Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası 2 African Association of Agricultural Economists - AAAE 1 Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia - AEAG 1 Agricultural Experiment Station <Urbana, Ill.> 1 Ajia Keizai Kenkyūsho <Chiba> 1 Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society - AARES 1 Bank of Greece 1 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1 CESifo 1 Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University 1 Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University 1 Deutsche Bundesbank 1 Deutsches Institut für Marktforschung <Berlin, Ost> 1 Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Facoltà di Economia 1 EconWPA 1 Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI) 1 Florida Department of Citrus 1 Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 1 IMF Institute 1 Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations 1 Institute Social Economic 1 Institute for International Economic Policy (IIEP), Elliott School of International Affairs 1 International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium - IATRC 1 International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center (IATPC), University of Florida 1 International Association of Agricultural Economists - IAAE 1 KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy 1 Macquarie University / Department of Economics 1 National Council of Applied Economic Research 1 National Institute of Bank Management 1
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Published in...
All
IMF Working Papers 62 Applied economics 27 IMF Staff Country Reports 22 ERS staff report : AGES 21 NBER Working Paper 20 NBER working paper series 20 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 18 Journal of agricultural and applied economics 13 Staff report : AGES 11 Journal of policy modeling : JPMOD ; a social science forum of world issues 10 Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 9 Journal of international economics 9 Applied economics letters 7 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 7 Economics letters 7 Review of international economics 7 Japan and the world economy : international journal of theory and policy 6 Journal of development economics 6 Journal of post-Keynesian economics : JPKE 6 Staff report / AGES 6 The Indian journal of economics 6 The International trade journal 6 The review of economics and statistics 6 CESifo working papers 5 Discussion paper 5 Economia internazionale 5 Economic modelling 5 International review of economics & finance : IREF 5 Journal of agricultural and resource economics : JARE ; the journal of the Western Agricultural Economics Association 5 Journal of economic studies 5 Journal of international money and finance 5 MPRA Paper 5 The world economy : the leading journal on international economic relations 5 CREDIT research paper 4 Cogent economics & finance 4 Foreign trade review : quarterly journal of Indian Institute of Foreign Trade 4 International economic journal 4 International journal of economics and finance 4 International journal of trade and global markets 4 Macquarie economics research papers 4
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 904 RePEc 173 EconStor 14 BASE 6 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 1,098
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Value added tax rate variation, import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria
Nomkuha, Joshua Kpelai; Asooso, Aondoawase; Abachi, … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 15 (2024) 1, pp. 33-53
This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015393923
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Declining long-run income elasticities and the rise of cyclicality of trade : evidence from Greece, 1995-2018
Lazarou, Nicholas-Joseph; Zervas, Andreas - In: The world economy : the leading journal on … 46 (2023) 6, pp. 1873-1888
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014303757
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Under pressure: trade competition from low-wage countries and demand for immigrant labor in italy
Caselli, Mauro; Traverso, Silvio - 2025
This study examines whether trade competition from low-wage countries (LWCs) can influence immigration patterns in an advanced economy. We focus on Italy between 2003 and 2013, a period characterized by rising market pressure from China and Eastern Europe. Using census data on sectoral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015197682
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Immigrants, imports, and welfare: Evidence from household purchase data
McCully, Brett A.; Jaccard, Torsten; Albert, Christoph - 2024
Do immigrants make goods from their origin country more accessible to their non-immigrant neighbors? We augment U.S. grocery scanner data to include the origin country of both households and products, thereby enabling the first direct estimate of how local immigrant presence affects import...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015077785
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Value added tax rate variation, import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria
Nomkuha, Joshua Kpelai; Asooso, Aondoawase; Abachi, … - In: CBN Journal of Applied Statistics 15 (2024) 1, pp. 33-53
This study employs computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effect of increase in value added tax (VAT), from 5 per cent to 7.5 per cent, on import demand and sectoral output in Nigeria. The study uses 2020 as the base year for the data analysis. The results show that increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015396532
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Understanding the role of renewable energy in import : demand for petrochemicals is the prevailing perception more imagined than real?
Hasanov, Fakhri J.; Umeozor, Evar; Mohamed, Samar - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015077729
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An econometric investigation of EU's import demand for fresh potato : a source differentiated analysis focusing on Egypt
Abu Hatab, Assem; Surry, Yves - In: Journal of agribusiness in developing and emerging … 14 (2024) 2, pp. 393-411
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014525296
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Regional value chains : opportunities for India and ASEAN?
Ray, Saon; Thakur, Vasundhara - Indian Council for Research on International Economic … - 2024
The literature on backward and forward linkages in global value chains (GVCs) explores the interconnectedness of production processes across different stages and locations within the global economy. The significance of imports in value chains, however, is relatively unexplored. Recognizing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014517320
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Immigrants, imports, and welfare : evidence from household purchase data
McCully, Brett A.; Jaccard, Torsten; Albert, Christoph - 2024
Do immigrants make goods from their origin country more accessible to their non-immigrant neighbors? We augment U.S. grocery scanner data to include the origin country of both households and products, thereby enabling the first direct estimate of how local immigrant presence affects import...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015074506
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Estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Mexico: A cointegration analysis
Romero, José; Aliphat, Rodrigo - In: Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science 28 (2023) 56, pp. 372-385
Purpose - This study estimated total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. A high propensity to import constitutes a significant obstacle to economic growth in Mexico since the benefits of increased exports or any other aggregate demand expansion leak...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014516377
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An Aggregate Food Import Demand Function for the Caribbean a Cointegration Analysis
Forgenie, David; Hutchinson, Sharon D.; Muhammad, Andrew - 2023
This article used cointegration analysis to examine aggregate food import demand in the Caribbean region between 1979 and 2018. The article examined the long-run and short-run relationship between food imports, relative prices, real per capita income, tourist numbers, export revenue from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014347793
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Dynamic estimation of a traditional import demand function for botswana
Malefane, Malefa Rose - In: Global journal of emerging market economies 15 (2023) 3, pp. 436-448
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014381455
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Consumed in China : rebalancing China's demand and Chinese imports
Simola, Heli - 2023
The share of private consumption has long been small in the Chinese GDP. The share started to increase in the past decade, but the trend reversed with the covid-19 pandemic. Now as the Chinese economy reopens and recovers from covid restrictions, the share of consumption could return to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014231085
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The dynamics of the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and import demand function
Al Abri, Ibtisam; Saboori, Behnaz; Al Humaidi, Razan - In: Cogent economics & finance 11 (2023) 1, pp. 1-17
This study empirically investigates the dynamics of the relationship between import demand and foreign exchange reserves for an oil-rich and high-income developing country, Oman. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the impact of real income, domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014500713
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Estimation of the aggregate import demand function for Mexico : a cointegration analysis
Romero, José; Aliphat, Rodrigo - In: Journal of economics, finance & administrative science 28 (2023) 56, pp. 372-385
Purpose This study estimated total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. A high propensity to import constitutes a significant obstacle to economic growth in Mexico since the benefits of increased exports or any other aggregate demand expansion leak to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014506796
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Measuring price and income elasticity of demand function of the Iranian imports
Ranjbar, Homayoun; Shamsi, Helen Mozafari; Mohamadi, Vahid - In: Iranian economic review : journal of University of Tehran 27 (2023) 1, pp. 171-185
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014308499
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Mineral Import Demand and Clean Energy Transitions in the Top Mineral-Importing Countries
Islam, Md. Monirul; Sohag, Kazi; Alam, Md. Mahmudul - 2023
The clean energy transitions require a large volume of minerals to handle its diverse technologies, such as solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines etc. Therefore, mineral importing countries concentrated on cleaner energy production confront an uprising trend in critical mineral prices due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014259344
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Modeling import demand for fishery products in Japan : a dynamic aids approach
Hsu, Chun-Fu; Chen, Yun-Ju; Chang, Kuo-I - In: Marine resource economics 38 (2023) 2, pp. 135-151
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The determinants of import demand in South Africa : an empirical investigation
Vacu, Nomfundo P.; Odhiambo, Nicholas M. - In: Economia internazionale 73 (2020) 1, pp. 51-76
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012301030
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Functional distribution of income as a determinant of importing behavior: an empirical analysis
Cícero, Vinicius Curti; Lima, Gilberto Tadeu - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012432656
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What determines import demand in Zimbabwe? : evidence from a gravity model
Ngoma, Gerald - In: Cogent economics & finance 8 (2020) 1, pp. 1-16
The notion of the determinants of import demand has become a major policy issue in most countries due to the persistent trade deficits being experienced and their effects on the economy. Against this backdrop, this study empirically examined the factors determining import demand in Zimbabwe...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012482941
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Empirical analysis of US bilateral corn trade : evidence from Japan, Mexico, China, South Korea, and the European Union
Fosu, Prince; Wahl, Thomas I. - In: Cogent economics & finance 8 (2020) 1, pp. 1-21
Aggregate export supply function for US corn and bilateral import functions for US corn by Mexico, Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU are estimated using ARDL estimation techniques. The findings of the study show that export price, technology, and lagged exports impact positively on US corn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012482943
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Further evidence on import demand function and income inequality
Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna - In: Economies : open access journal 8 (2020) 4/91, pp. 1-12
In advanced economies, rising inequality has become a significant economic issue. Our paper examines one dimension of the impact of inequality. This study employs panel estimators that tackle heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to estimate the impact of income inequality on import...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012311842
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An empirical analysis on immigrants and price elasticity in the import demand function
Fukumoto, Yukio - In: Journal of economic studies 52 (2025) 2, pp. 381-392
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015198689
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Time-varying parameters of Croatian import demand
Bošnjak, Mile; Bilas, Vlatka; Račić, Domagoj - In: Zbornik radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Rijeci : časopis … 37 (2019) 2, pp. 853-872
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The Asymmetric Effect of Income on Import Demand in Greece
Bardakas, Ioanna - 2022
This paper presents empirical evidence supporting the argument that a significant asymmetry exists in the income elasticity of Greek imports. Using multivariate cointegration techniques for the estimation of long-run imports we derive short-run error correction equations that separate income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014079194
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China's Skill-Biased Imports
Li, Hongbin; Li, Lei; Ma, Hong - 2022
China has witnessed rapid increases in the skill premium over the last few decades. In this paper, we study the short-run effect of capital goods imports on skill premium in China. The surge in capital goods imports, which embody advanced technology, can explain the rising demand for skills in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014081004
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Estimation of disaggregated import demand functions for Nigeria
Madichie, Chekwube V.; Nwogwugwu, Uche C.; Ngwu, Franklin N. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 13 (2022) 2, pp. 41-77
This paper estimates disaggregated import demand function for Nigeria using annual data from 1970 to 2019. The study employs the Zivot-Andrews unit root and Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests to account for the role of structural breaks and the error correction mechanism for shortrun analysis,...
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Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty
Handley, Kyle; Limão, Nuno; Ludema, Rodney D.; Yu, Zhi - 2022
We examine the role of trade policy uncertainty in shaping the import decisions of firms. If the adoption of a new input requires a sunk cost investment, then the prospect of price increases in that input, e.g. due to trade barriers, reduces the adoption of that input (a substitution effect) and...
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Import demand elasticities based on quantity data : theory and evidence
Ferguson, Shon M.; Smith, Aaron D. - In: The Canadian journal of economics : the journal of the … 55 (2022) 2, pp. 1027-1056
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China's Import Demand for Agricultural Products : The Impact of the Phase One Trade Agreement
Feenstra, Robert C.; Hong, Chang - 2022
In December 2019, the United States and China reached a Phase One trade agreement, under which China committed to purchase more imports from the United States: $12.5 billion more agricultural imports in 2020 and $19.5 billion more in 2021, as compared to 2017. We show that the most efficient way...
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Why the conventional test of Thirlwall's law is still not a "near-tautology" : a rejoinder to Professor Blecker
McCombie, John S. L. - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013166719
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COVID-19 test-kit trade and trade policy : implications for developing countries
Long Hai Vo; Thai-Ha Le - In: The world economy : the leading journal on … 45 (2022) 10, pp. 3246-3268
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013468521
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Import demand elasticities revisited
Grübler, Julia; Ghodsi, Mahdi; Stehrer, Robert - In: Journal of international trade & economic development : … 31 (2022) 1, pp. 46-74
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012804384
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Global value chain and its impacts on Malaysia's trade balance
Fukumoto, Mayumi - In: Applied economics 54 (2022) 10, pp. 1162-1171
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012875132
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The import demand for corn in changing macroeconomic circumstances
Arnade, Carlos Anthony; Liefert, William Mark - In: The International trade journal 36 (2022) 5, pp. 421-445
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013373677
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The oil price volatility and a revisited Saudi import demand function : an empirical analysis
Algaeed, Abdulaziz Hamad - In: International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy : IJEEP 8 (2018) 6, pp. 59-69
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How do imports drive the domestic value added of China? : the roles of input imports and demand imports
Zhang, Yabin; Wang, Zhenguo - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015115072
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Food import demand in Peru, 1980-2021
Gonzales, Jorge R.; Varona, Luis - In: Applied economics 56 (2024) 28, pp. 3371-3384
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International Trade and American Wages in General Equilibrium, 1967 - 1995
Harrigan, James - 2021
In the last quarter century, wage inequality has increased dramatically in the United States. At the same time, the US has become more integrated into the world economy prices of final goods have changed, the capital stock has more than doubled has become steadily more educated. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013218410
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Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined
Chinn, Menzie David - 2021
This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand...
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Export Supply and Import Demand Functions : a Production Theory Approach
Diewert, W. Erwin - 2021
In this paper we theoretically and empirically model import demand and export supply behavior of firms for the U.S. economy from 1967-1982. A producer theoretic approach based on duality theory is used to derive econometric systems of producer supply and demand functions that are consistent with...
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The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries
Eichengreen, Barry; Yi, Yŏng-sŏp; Tong, Hui - 2021
We analyze the impact of China's growth on the exports of other Asian countries. Our innovation is to distinguish the increase in China's demand for imports from its increased penetration of export markets. Using the gravity model, we disaggregate among commodity types and account for the...
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Determinants of Imports in Guinea
Agbeno, Yao - 2021
The objective of this paper is to examine the factors that influence Guinea's overall import demand using annual data covering the period 1980-2015. Through the Error Correction Model (ECM), we estimated the short- and long-term relationships to measure the effect of real investment expenditure,...
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Measuring the Benefits of Product Variety with an Accurate Variety Set
Blonigen, Bruce A.; Soderbery, Anson - 2021
Recent studies have used import data to assess the impact of foreign varieties on prices and welfare for a home country. The reliance on import data has a number of limitations. First, these papers rely on goods categories defined by the Harmonized System. Second, they define varieties using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013228054
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On the evolution of income elasticities of imports and Thirlwall's law : a Bayesian analysis for Latin America (1961 - 2018)
Ferreira, Diego; Palma, Andreza Aparecida; Curado, Marcelo - In: Estudos econômicos 51 (2021) 3, pp. 453-491
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Buyer Investment, Product Variety, and Intrafirm Trade
Chen, Yongmin; Feenstra, Robert C. - 2021
This paper studies a simple model of buyer investment and its effect on the variety and vertical structure of international trade. A distinction is made between two types of buyer investment: "flexible" and "specific." Their interactions with the entry and pricing incentives of suppliers are...
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Domestic inflation, exchange rate, and aggregate import demand nexus in Nigeria : New evidence from cointegrating regression
Iormom, Bruce - 2021
This study estimates the Nigerian import demand function with the view to finding the degree of responsiveness of imports to domestic product prices while controlling for exchange rate (EXR), gross domestic product and foreign reserves. To refine inference about stationarity in the presence of...
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Enlarging the EMU to the East : What Effects on Trade?
Belke, Ansgar Hubertus; Spies, Julia - 2021
The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share in EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results...
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Import Peneteration and the Politics of Trade Protection
Maggi, Giovanni; Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés - 2021
In this paper we reconsider a key empirical prediction generated by an important class of political-economy models of trade policy, namely that trade protection should be higher in sectors characterized by lower import penetration (we call this the little support for this prediction. In this...
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