We consider a dynamic setting where two countries with competing claims to a resource/asset first arm and then choose whether to resolve their dispute through war or peacefully through settlement. War precludes international trade and can be destructive, but also locks gains and eliminates...

This report aims to identify barriers, needs, and potential opportunities for Kosovo to digitally transform its basic education system to strengthen efficiency and improve student performance in foundational skills (including digital skills). The rest of the report is structured as follows....

The techno-geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States has intensified in recent years. Turkey's souring relations with the US over the past decade has prevented the former from reaping the spoils of the Sino-US tech war as an American ally. Ankara has its own ambitions in the...

How do shifts in the global balance of power shape the world economy? We propose a theory of alignment-based “hegemonic globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or regulatory frameworks) and trade between any...

Global powers increasingly use trade as a tool of geopolitical influence. But can trade also foster soft power? We provide novel evidence on this relationship by combining geo-referenced survey data from 22 African countries sourced from the Gallup World Poll with Chinese import data. Exploiting...

This paper investigates the theoretical feasibility and implications of Canadian accession to the European Union (EU), a scenario that challenges conventional geographic and political boundaries of EU enlargement. Prompted by recent shifts in global geopolitics and Canadian public opinion, the...

Access to critical raw materials (CRMs) is increasingly being shaped by geopolitical dynamics, fuelling a global competition for supply security. This paper applies the gravity model of trade to examine how OECD countries leverage Aid for Trade (AfT), Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs), and...

I study the impact of domestic and foreign geopolitical risk (GPR) on economic expectations, and how trade linkages affect the transmission of foreign risks. Using monthly professional forecasts since 1995, I start by estimating the effect of GPR events on the distribution of expectations across...

Can the flow of goods, services, and ideas build bridges where conflict once prevailed? If so, under whatcircumstances? The World Trade Organization (WTO) stands for a predictable, rules-based system based on the principle of non-discrimination. When the predecessor to the WTO – the General...

In the context of the push by the European Union for regional integration in the Western Balkans, this paper explores the barriers to, and prospects for, deeper intra-Western Balkan economic relationships. First, it addresses the pronounced bilateral economic relationships between Western Balkan...

Southeast Asia is becoming more multipolar, with countries reevaluating their alliances and embracing non-alignment. Europe, however, risks being sidelined due to fragmented engagement and an erratic regional presence. Europe's influence is undermined by a lack of strategic cohesion and...

Southeast Asia is becoming more multipolar, with countries reevaluating their alliances and embracing non-alignment. Europe, however, risks being sidelined due to fragmented engagement and an erratic regional presence. Europe's influence is undermined by a lack of strategic cohesion and...

This report presents the results of five EU Science Diplomacy Working Groups that were established by the European Commission in order to develop recommendations for a European Framework for Science Diplomacy. The working groups consisted of 130 science and diplomacy experts from across Europe,...

This paper argues that the potential of the European single market in providing economic security within a dramatically changed context has been overlooked. It aims to fill the gaps in current understandings of economic security by developing an expanded framework that incorporates the key...

Thermodynamic laws are dominant and not deniable, we need to consider those in the context of system theory. From the system's perspective the entropy issue is decisive for the evaluation of future economic options and constraints. The paper sensitizes for entropic adequate firm acts in regard...

The Weimar Triangle countries - France, Germany, and Poland - could enhance Europe's defense and strategic autonomy thanks to their complementarities. Germany, enjoying fiscal space, opted for debt-financed rearmament but stagnant voluntary recruitment and sluggish procurement form bottlenecks....

Africa's trade relationship with Europe is shaped by historical ties and by emerging economic opportunities. This policy brief examines Africa's trade with Europe, showing selected trends, the current status and future potential, with a special focus on the European Union (EU) and Austria. It...

The Belt and Road initiative (BRI), introduced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, is an economic and geopolitical mega-project that has become a centrepiece of China's foreign and economic policy. The original goal was to better connect the Asian economies with Europe. However, over time...

This Policy Brief explores the potential impact of forming a customs union between the European Union (EU) and key global partners (e.g. Canada, the UK, Mexico and Japan) as a strategic response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Using the GSIM partial equilibrium model, the...

Many countries worldwide share borders that offer several benefits, such as easier access, faster knowledge transfer, and more efficient trade diplomacy. However, reliance on land-border trade alone has not been consistently shown to increase GDP per capita or vice versa. This study investigates...

Since September 2017, the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has been provisionally (and partially) applied. In line with established EU practice, the European Commission has requested an ex-post evaluation to be conducted at least five years after the provisional...

Since September 2017, the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has been provisionally (and partially) applied. In line with established EU practice, the European Commission has requested an ex-post evaluation to be conducted at least five years after the provisional...

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is a free trade agreement (FTA) between Canada and the EU and its Member States. It aims to reduce trade barriers, enhance economic cooperation, and promote investment and sustainable development. On 21 September 2024, CETA marked the 7th...

A secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials is at the core of the EU's competitiveness, including as part of our green and digital transitions. It is also vital for increased EU economic security and defence capabilities. While the European Critical Raw Materials Act aims at...

EU-GCC relations are shifting towards a dual-track approach, balancing multilateral and bilateral engagement to adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape. With FTA talks stalled, the new EU-UAE agreement reflects the need for flexibility amid global trade uncertainty, US policy shifts and...

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is a free trade agreement (FTA) between Canada and the EU and its Member States. It aims to reduce trade barriers, enhance economic cooperation, and promote investment and sustainable development. On 21 September 2024, CETA marked the 7th...

A secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials is at the core of the EU's competitiveness, including as part of our green and digital transitions. It is also vital for increased EU economic security and defence capabilities. While the European Critical Raw Materials Act aims at...

On 3 December 2024, the then-President of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Yoon Suk-yeol triggered the gravest political crisis in the country since its democratisation by declaring martial law in a televised address. Yoon justified martial law as a response to what he dubbed the "legislative...

EU-GCC relations are shifting towards a dual-track approach, balancing multilateral and bilateral engagement to adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape. With FTA talks stalled, the new EU-UAE agreement reflects the need for flexibility amid global trade uncertainty, US policy shifts and...