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Year of publication
Subject
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Leading indicator 7,618 Frühindikator 7,596 Prognoseverfahren 2,875 Forecasting model 2,869 Konjunktur 1,993 Business cycle 1,957 Deutschland 1,772 Germany 1,770 Wirtschaftsprognose 1,506 Economic forecast 1,495 Theorie 1,342 Theory 1,340 Wirtschaftsindikator 1,180 Economic indicator 1,170 USA 833 United States 826 Schätzung 765 Estimation 762 Welt 752 World 751 Prognose 699 EU-Staaten 683 EU countries 679 Forecast 630 Zeitreihenanalyse 606 Time series analysis 602 Macroeconomic performance 391 Wirtschaftslage 391 International business cycle 351 Internationale Konjunktur 351 Eurozone 345 Wirtschaftswachstum 344 Euro area 340 Economic growth 334 National income 323 Nationaleinkommen 323 Faktorenanalyse 303 Bruttoinlandsprodukt 302 Factor analysis 302 Gross domestic product 293
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Online availability
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Free 2,481 Undetermined 913 CC license 57
Type of publication
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Article 3,864 Book / Working Paper 3,561 Journal 253
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 3,539 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 3,539 Graue Literatur 2,183 Non-commercial literature 2,183 Working Paper 1,388 Arbeitspapier 1,374 Aufsatz im Buch 322 Book section 322 Collection of articles of several authors 248 Sammelwerk 248 Country report 211 Länderbericht 211 Statistik 161 Amtsdruckschrift 142 Government document 142 Konferenzschrift 130 Conference proceedings 98 Hochschulschrift 96 Statistics 95 Thesis 81 Advisory report 77 Gutachten 77 No longer published / No longer aquired 69 Aufsatzsammlung 29 Bibliografie enthalten 23 Bibliography included 23 Market information 20 Marktinformation 20 Lehrbuch 18 Handbook 15 Handbuch 15 Textbook 15 Collection of articles written by one author 14 Forschungsbericht 14 Sammlung 14 Conference paper 12 Konferenzbeitrag 12 Interview 9 Elektronischer Datenträger 8 Rezension 8
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Language
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English 5,173 German 2,081 French 126 Russian 48 Italian 40 Dutch 38 Polish 37 Spanish 34 Undetermined 27 Czech 20 Hungarian 18 Slovak 10 Slovenian 9 Swedish 8 Norwegian 6 Romanian 5 Finnish 4 Croatian 4 Lithuanian 3 Bulgarian 2 Estonian 2 Portuguese 2 Chinese 2 Kazakh 1 Macedonian 1 Serbian 1 Ukrainian 1
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Author
All
Scheide, Joachim 132 Nierhaus, Wolfgang 101 Abberger, Klaus 99 Gern, Klaus-Jürgen 88 Marcellino, Massimiliano 72 Nerb, Gernot 63 Wohlrabe, Klaus 62 Loose, Brigitte 59 Meier, Carsten-Patrick 58 Lahiri, Kajal 56 Gürtler, Joachim 54 Lang, Cornelia 53 Marterbauer, Markus 50 Döpke, Jörg 49 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 48 Dovern, Jonas 48 Jannsen, Nils 48 Gluch, Erich 47 Kooths, Stefan 43 Kholodilin, Konstantin 41 Zarnowitz, Victor 41 Schumacher, Christian 40 Siliverstovs, Boriss 40 Carstensen, Kai 39 Groll, Dominik 39 Kamps, Christophe 39 Boss, Alfred 37 Städtler, Arno 36 Stangl, Anna 35 Walterskirchen, Ewald 35 Fritsche, Ulrich 33 Ludwig, Udo 32 Michelsen, Claus 31 Ferrara, Laurent 30 Lehmann, Robert 30 Benner, Joachim 29 Diebold, Francis X. 29 Gupta, Rangan 29 Kuvalin, Dmitrij B. 29 Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich 28
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Institution
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Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 99 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 58 National Bureau of Economic Research 55 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 46 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 39 Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute 35 Ifo-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 35 Association of European Conjuncture Institutes 32 OECD 30 Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle 28 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 28 Arbeitskreis Konjunktur des IWH 23 Konjunkturforschungsstelle <Zürich> 23 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 23 Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 23 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 22 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung / Arbeitskreis Konjunktur 20 Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys 19 University of Michigan / Department of Economics 18 Ifo Institut 16 Hamburgisches Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv 15 Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 14 Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag 11 Institut für Höhere Studien 11 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 11 National Institute of Economic and Social Research 10 PriceWaterhouseCoopers <London> 10 UBS AG 10 Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques 9 Credit Suisse 8 Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft <Köln> / Arbeitsgruppe Konjunktur 8 Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques <Frankreich> 8 Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle 8 Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung 8 Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft <Köln> / Forschungsgruppe Konjunktur 7 Urad za Makroekonomske Analize in Razvoj <Ljubljana> 7 Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut / Projektgruppe Prognose 7 Belgien / Bureau du Plan 6 Deutsche Bank <Frankfurt am Main> / Research 6 Elinkeinoelämän Tutkimuslaitos 6
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Published in...
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Ifo-Schnelldienst 381 International journal of forecasting 190 Wirtschaft im Wandel 181 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 167 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 161 DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 96 Kieler Diskussionsbeiträge 95 Journal of forecasting 79 CESifo working papers 62 Ifo Dresden berichtet 60 NBER working paper series 52 Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur : im ... 50 European economy 47 Working paper series / European Central Bank 45 Die Weltwirtschaft : Vierteljahresschrift des Instituts für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel 44 NBER Working Paper 42 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 41 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 40 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 39 Economics letters 39 Working paper 39 Applied economics letters 38 Economic review 37 Applied economics 35 Economic modelling 35 Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 35 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 35 Business economics : the journal of the National Association for Business Economists 34 Journal of business cycle measurement and analysis : a joint publication of OECD and CIRET 34 KOF working papers 33 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 31 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 30 IFO-Studien : Zeitschrift für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung 30 Journal of macroeconomics 30 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 30 ECB Working Paper 29 Kiel Institute economic outlook 29 IMF working papers 27 Discussion paper 26 Journal of applied econometrics 26
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 7,613 RePEc 38 EconStor 17 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 6 BASE 3 Other ZBW resources 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 7,678
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Moments of cross-sectional stock market returns and the German business cycle
Döpke, Jörg; Müller, Karsten; Tegtmeier, Lars - In: Economic notes 52 (2023) 2, pp. 1-26
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Forecasting with the help of survey information
Brenna, Federica; Budrys, Žymantas - 2025
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Fiscal consolidation hampered by sluggish GDP growth : economic outlook for 2025 and 2026
Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2025
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Economic expectations remain subdued at the beginning of the year : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of January 2025
Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2025
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Quantile VARs and macroeconomic risk forecasting
Surprenant, Stéphane - 2025 - Last updated: January 17, 2025
Recent rises in macroeconomic volatility have prompted the introduction of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) models to forecast macroeconomic risk. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of QVAR models in a pseudo-out-of-sample experiment spanning 112...
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Factors of predictive power for metal commodities
Papenfuß, Patric; Schischke, Amelie; Rathgeber, Andreas W. - 2025
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Identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden
Karlsson, Sune; Mazur, Stepan; Raftab, Mariya - 2025
This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...
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News shocks, consumer confidence, and business cycles
Hussain, Syed M.; Liaqat, Zara - 2025
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Economic forecasting with German newspaper articles
Berger, Tino; Wintter, Simon - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 2, pp. 497-512
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Forecasting Markov switching vector autoregressions : evidence from simulation and application
Cavicchioli, Maddalena - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 1, pp. 136-152
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Predictor preselection for mixed-frequency dynamic factor models : a simulation study with an empirical application to GDP nowcasting
Franjic, Domenic; Schweikert, Karsten - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 2, pp. 255-269
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Reassessing the predictive power of the yield spread for recessions in the United States
Coe, Patrick J.; Vahey, Shaun P. - 2025
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Tracking economic activity with alternative high-frequency data
Eckert, Florian; Kronenberg, Philipp; Mikosch, Heiner; … - 2025
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 1, pp. 3-40
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Step by step : a quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts
Heinisch, Katja - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 3, pp. 1026-1041
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The Cyprus stock exchange as a leading indicator
Michail, Nektarios; Savva, Christos S. - 2022
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Algorithmic modelling of financial conditions for macro predictive purposes : pilot application to USA data
Qin, Duo; Van Huellen, Sophie; Wang, Qing Chao; … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 10 (2022) 2, pp. 1-22
Aggregate financial conditions indices (FCIs) are constructed to fulfil two aims: (i) The FCIs should resemble non-model-based composite indices in that their composition is adequately invariant for concatenation during regular updates; (ii) the concatenated FCIs should outperform financial...
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Sentiment and economic activity in Brazil
Marschner, Paulo Fernando; Ceretta, Paulo Sergio - In: REGE revista de gestão 31 (2024) 2, pp. 186-200
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Evaluating the macroeconomic forecasting performance of the Ministry for Finance and Employment
Davison, Kurt; Camilleri, Gilmour; Spiteri, Kylie - 2024
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Multibenchmark reality checks
Arbués, Ignacio; Matilla-García, Mariano - In: Economic modelling 140 (2024), pp. 1-12
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DIW Berlin Economic Outlook : German economy stuck in limbo while trade conflicts threaten the global economy
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 14 (2024) 50/52, pp. 311-322
The German economy is stuck in a difficult position as it faces both slow growth as well as structural change. The continuing lack of orders in manufacturing, increasing international competition, and sluggish development in industry-related services are now affecting the labor market and...
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European business cycle indicators : 3rd quarter 2024
European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic … - 2024
This special topic investigates the extent to which selling price expectations (SPE) from the harmonised EU programme of business surveys contain leading information for forecasting short-term developments in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The analysis is based on a...
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European economic forecast : autumn 2024
European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic … - 2024
Following a prolonged and broad-based stagnation, the EU economy resumed growth in the first quarter of this year. As projected in spring, the expansion continued at a subdued, yet steady, pace throughout the second and third quarters, amidst further abating inflationary pressures. The...
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Indicatorul Conjunctural pentru Economia României (ICER) și semnalele conferite în contextul crizelor recente
Tănase, Andrei; Pleșa, Georgiana; Sîrbu, Dragoș; … - 2024
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Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle
Hoeberichts, Marco; End, Jan-Willem van den - 2024
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Are USDA forecasts optimal? : a systematic review
Massa, Olga Isengildina; Karali, Berna; Irwin, Scott H. - In: Journal of agricultural and applied economics : JAEE 56 (2024) 3, pp. 496-527
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The propagation of business expectations within the European Union
Sebbesen, Anja; Oberhofer, Harald - In: Journal of applied econometrics 39 (2024) 6, pp. 1082-1103
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Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations : a compositional data approach
Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander; Kenny, Geoff - In: Journal of applied econometrics 39 (2024) 6, pp. 1104-1122
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Enhancing forecast accuracy through frequencydomain combination : applications to financial and economic indicators
Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio - 2024
We introduce a frequency-domain forecast combination method that leverages time- and frequencydependent predictability to enhance forecast accuracy. By decomposing both the target variables (equity premium and real GDP growth) and predictor variables into distinct frequency components, this...
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Optimizing composite early warning indicators
Beltran, Daniel O.; Dalal, Vihar M.; Jahan-Parvar, … - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 74 (2024), pp. 1-13
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Forecasting US GDP growth rates in a rich environment of macroeconomic data
Lu, Fei; Zeng, Qing; Bouri, Elie; Tao, Ying - In: International review of economics & finance : IREF 95 (2024), pp. 1-20
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Real-time nowcasting Growth-at-Risk using the Survey of Professional Forecasters
Schick, Manuel - 2024
This paper investigates nowcasting Growth-at-Risk (GaR) using consensus forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) in the US. Incorporating SPF consensus forecasts into the conditional mean of an AR-GARCH type model significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy for GaR and the...
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Nowcasting quarterly GDP growth during the COVID-19 crisis using a monthly activity indicator
Hartigan, Luke; Rosewall, Tom - 2024
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Uncertainty of household inflation expectations : reconciling point and density forecasts
Zhao, Yongchen - In: Economics letters 234 (2024), pp. 1-5
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Business cycle sentiment subdued at start of the year : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of January 2024
Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2024
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Economic recovery delayed : economic outlook for 2023 to 2025
Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2024
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The performance of OECD's composite leading indicator
Ojo, Mustapha Olalekan; Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Soares, … - In: International journal of finance & economics : IJFE 29 (2024) 2, pp. 2265-2277
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AI adoption among German firms
Licht, Thomas; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2024
This paper examines the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) among German firms, leveraging firm-level data from the ifo Business Survey. We analyze the diffusion of AI across sectors and firm sizes, showing a significant increase in AI usage from 2023 to 2024, particularly in manufacturing...
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Kenya : Technical Assistance Report-Improving the Business Surveys and the Nowcasting Framework at the Central Bank of Kenya
International Monetary Fund / Monetary and Capital … - 2024
At the request of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), a technical assistance (TA) mission from the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) department visited Nairobi, Kenya, from April 17-21, 2023, to help improve the CBK's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The main objectives were to...
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Policy changes leaving marks on the economy
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung / Bereich … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 15 (2025) 10/11, pp. 63-75
The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the...
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Potential of business uncertainty indicators in forecasting economic activity : the case of Russia
Lola, Inna S.; Asoskov, Dmitry G. - In: Russian journal of economics 10 (2024) 4, pp. 351-364
This study investigates the utility of business uncertainty indicators as predictive tools for forecasting economic activity in the context of Russia. In an era characterized by global economic volatility and geopolitical shifts, understanding the dynamics of economic uncertainty and its impact...
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A new approach to forecasting the probability of recessions after the COVID-19 pandemic
Camacho, Maximo; Ramallo, Salvador; Ruiz Marín, Manuel - In: Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics 86 (2024) 4, pp. 833-855
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The beige book and the business cycle: using beige book anecdotes to construct recession probabilities
Gascon, Charles S.; Martorana, Joseph - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015133571
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An investigation into the uncertainty revision process of professional forecasters
Clements, Michael P.; Rich, Robert W.; Tracy, Joseph S. - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015095338
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Economic assessments remain weak : results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest quarterly survey of October 2024
Hölzl, Werner; Bierbaumer, Jürgen; Klien, Michael; … - 2024
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Boosting and predictability of macroeconomic variables : evidence from Brazil
Torrent, Hudson da Silva - In: Computational economics 64 (2024) 1, pp. 377-409
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Step by step - a quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts
Heinisch, Katja - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle - 2024
The European Commission’s growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a...
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Lumpy forecasts : Isaac Baley, Javier Turen
Baley, Isaac; Turen, Javier - 2024
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Nowcasting German GDP with text data
Okuneva, Mariia; Hauber, Philipp; Carstensen, Kai; … - 2024
This paper investigates the impact of news media information on improving short-term GDP growth forecasts by analyzing a large and unique corpus of 12.4 million news articles spanning from 1991 to 2018. We extract business cycle-related sentiment from each article using an annotated dataset from...
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Granular sentiments
Jamilov, Rustam; Kohlhas, Alexandre; Talavera, Oleksandr; … - 2024
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