Purpose - The "problem-ridden present" is indubitably related to the prevalence of neoliberalism, but it is also when the fifth technological revolution took place. In this special time, what should be done to achieve the coupling of Socio-political Paradigmand Technoeconomic Paradigm through...

The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about...

Proceeding from the perspective of historical materialism, this article examines technological revolution and industrial revolution as intermediate-level concepts for analyzing economic long waves, and reconstructs the political economy analysis framework of long-wave theory. Based on this...

An intensifying combination of instability, inequality, and environmental degradation obliges us to consider how best to reform capitalism. The question of the system's reformability has deep historic roots in capitalism's long-wave dynamic where periods of crises have recurrently set in motion...

Chapter One Polycrisis and the Thucydides Trap -- Chapter Two China’s Challenge to the West -- Chapter Three The Collapse of the Centrally Planned Economies and the Expansion of Capitalism -- Chapter Four The Long Wave of Globalisation -- Chapter Five Hyper-Globalisation and the Laws of...

We classify 2 + 1 dimensional integrable systems with nonlocality of the intermediate long wave type. Links to the 2 + 1 dimensional waterbag system are established. Dimensional reductions of integrable systems constructed in this paper provide dispersive regularisations of hydrodynamic...

This chapter is about radical innovation and disruptive technological change. Discovering the nature and mechanisms of disruptive technological change can help to understand the long-run dynamics of innovation and map profound transformation in socio-economic systems. The chapter considers four...

Recurrent boom-and-bust cycles are a salient feature of economic and finan- cial history. Cycles found in the data are stochastic, often highly persistent, and span substantial fractions of the sample size. We refer to such cycles as “long”. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to...

Asset prices undergo long swings that revolve around benchmark levels. In currency markets, fluctuations involve real exchange rates that are highly persistent and that move in near-parallel fashion with nominal rates. The inability to explain these two regularities with one model has been...

The Internet technology has radically transformed the computer and communication world, with revolutionary effects on economic and social systems at a global level. Its invention is the result of a collective research effort performed by computer scientists and telecommunications, electrical,...

Evoking Chris Freeman and following from the last book he co-authored, this WP asks why has the Phase B of the fourth long wave been so long, since the major turning point of the 1970s. As Chris's answer was the mismatch between the new techno-economic paradigm, available for decades, and the...

This article is devoted to a reconstruction of Soviet discussions on long cycles based on an analysis of a wide range of unknown and little-known historiographical sources and archival materials. The role of discussions in the formation of assessments and ideas about long cycles is shown. In...

Purpose There exist long-term fluctuations in the process of capital accumulation. The economic long wave is an essential part of research into non-mainstream western economics. After the Second World War, the capitalist world experienced the fourth long wave of expansion and then entered into a...

The present paper is an empirical exercise that contributes to the debate on whether long-lasting cyclical economic development can be viewed as a deterministic phenomenon or a stochastic process. First, we search for longer lasting, periodically reappearing cycles of GDP per capita in four...

Vorwort – Von unerwarteten Begegnungen und ihren Folgen -- Einleitung -- Puzzlesteine einer Systemkrise -- Die systemische Perspektive -- Wir wagen einen Blick in die Zukunft -- Der Schritt in die Umsetzung -- Wohin geht die Reise?.

ekz-Annotation: Die Autoren sehen voraus, dass sich Wirtschaft, Politik, Gesellschaft und das individuelle Leben jede*r Einzelnen nach der Pandemie für immer drastisch verändern werden. Sie ermutigen dazu, nun die Gunst der Stunde zu nutzen und zu investieren, um sehr viel Geld zu verdienen....

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and the direction...

The emergency of a new tecno-economic paradigm, the existence of regularities in History, is a construction of the human intellect that tries to find explanation and sense when happening of the Humanity, treating to escape to the myth of Sísifo. Consensus exists that this is a time of global...

Some important correlations between medium-term economic cycles (7–11 years) known as Juglar cycles and long (40–60 years) Kondratieff cycles are presented in this paper. The research into the history of this issue shows that this aspect is insufficiently studied. Meanwhile, in our opinion,...

Der Begriff IT, "Information Technology" steht für den 5. und jüngsten Kondratjeff-Zyklus und damit für einen zukünftigen Boom. Gleichzeitig lässt dieser Begriff vermutlich nicht wenige Computernutzer zunächst erschreckt an die PC-Fehlermeldung denken "Bitte wenden Sie sich an Ihren...

In this paper, I investigate the phenomenon of long waves of capitalist development from two perspectives. First, I look for evidence of long waves of economic growth taking the dates for turning points of long waves from the historical literature (Mandel, 1995). Using historical data for 20...

Oft zitiert, kaum konkretisiert IBM die ökologisch-soziale Marktwirtschaft. Dies meint die Umfinanzierung der Arbeitskosten durch Ökosteuern. Konsequenterweise hiesse das: ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen, das aber aus der Besteuerung von Energieträgern und (Investiv-)Kapital finanziert...

Long-term cycles in world economic development are analyzed through the view on Russia's economy in the XIX century. Several economic indicators and industries are observed. It is found that Russia joined long economic fluctuations gradually. The first signs of this involvement are noticeable...

The purpose of this essay is to determine the forecast horizon of the fifth, sixth and seventh long wave. As the period of each long wave can change according to the data, it has been used a deterministic approach, based on historical chronologies of USA and UK economies worked out by several...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the pattern and behavior of Economic Long Waves over time, using the long-wave chronologies of two driving economies, the USA and the UK. The statistical evidence seems in general to support the hypothesis that Long Waves are not symmetric and their...

Asset prices tend to undergo wide swings around long-run equilibrium values, which can have detrimental effects on the real economy. To get a better understanding of how the financial sector and the real economy interact, this paper models the long swings in the Swiss franc-US dollar foreign...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...

A central challenge in asset pricing is the weak connection between stock returns and observable economic fundamentals. We provide evidence that this connection is stronger than previously thought. We use a modified version of the Bry-Boschan algorithm to identify long-run swings in the stock...