This study examines the impact of caseworker beliefs on employment and health outcomes among long-term unemployed social assistance recipients in Denmark. Exploiting as-if random caseworker assignment, an instrumental variables approach, and a novel measure of "Caseworker Job Orientation", we...

Finland offers a subsidy to employers for hiring individuals with low employment prospects. In 2015, changes to the subsidy's funding caused some regions to unexpectedly suspend new subsidy grants. I examine wages and employment in these regions using a differences-in-differences setting, with...

This paper incorporates labor market inactivity and long-term unemployment into the framework of optimal redistributive taxation. We examine how a combination of education policy, public employment programs, unemployment benefits, and optimal income taxation can effectively address both...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

This paper aims to identify the factors contributing to the unusually high prevalence of over-indebtedness and debt enforcement proceedings in the Czech Republic at the granular geographic level of extended-powers municipalities (ORP). The main reason for this level is simple, not to lose...

This study examines the impact of caseworker beliefs on employment and health outcomes among long-term unemployed social assistance recipients in Denmark. Exploiting as-if random caseworker assignment, an instrumental variables approach, and a novel measure of "Caseworker Job Orientation", we...

This paper explores post-pandemic developments and analyses post-COVID matching dynamics in the Nordic labour markets. It also discusses the role of institutions and the policies implemented to address labour market mismatch in the region. The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a recession, with a...

Finland offers a subsidy to employers for hiring individuals with low employment prospects. In 2015, changes to the subsidy's funding caused some regions to unexpectedly suspend new subsidy grants. I examine wages and employment in these regions using a differences-in-differences setting, with...

This paper incorporates labor market inactivity and long-term unemployment into the framework of optimal redistributive taxation. We examine how a combination of education policy, public employment programs, unemployment benefits, and optimal income taxation can effectively address both...

The German government is planning to reform Hartz IV by replacing it with a simpler and more accessible system known as Bürgergeld. Using a random-based survey of eight job centers in North Rhine-Westphalia, this Weekly Report considers the perspectives of the long-term unemployed: What do they...

In this paper, we compare two popular statistical learning techniques, logistic regression and random forest, with respect to their ability to classify jobseekers by their likelihood to become long-term unemployed. We study the performance of the two methods before the COVID-19 pandemic as well...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers older than 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on...

In a randomized field experiment, we provide personalized suggestions about suitable alternative occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers in the UK. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform, and fed into actual search queries. Effects on the...

This paper analyses effects of subsidised, predominantly non‐standard, employment within the German labour market programme ‘participation in the labour market’ for long‐term welfare recipients on their health satisfaction, health‐based quality of life, satisfaction with standard of...

Im Januar 2023 hat in Deutschland das Bürgergeld das System der Grundsicherung abgelöst, begleitet von zahlreichen politischen und medialen Kontroversen. Nach einem Jahr Bürgergeldreform wurden Beschäftigte in sieben Jobcentern in Nordrhein-Westfalen befragt, um eine erste Bilanz zur...

There is still a lack of knowledge on how to effectively help the long-term unemployed into employment. We evaluate a wide range of active labour market policies for this target group, using a dynamic matching approach. Measures vary considerably in the extent to which they improve labour market...

We analysed a new counselling and support programme for people with low employment prospects in Austria. The Austrian Public Employment Service introduced regional pilots to investigate whether a new counselling strategy could improve labour market outcomes for this group. Eligible unemployed...

There is still a lack of knowledge on how to effectively help the long-term unemployed into employment. We evaluate a wide range of active labour market policies for this target group, using a dynamic matching approach. Measures vary considerably in the extent to which they improve labour market...

We analysed a new counselling and support programme for people with low employment prospects in Austria. The Austrian Public Employment Service introduced regional pilots to investigate whether a new counselling strategy could improve labour market outcomes for this group. Eligible unemployed...

Im Januar 2023 hat in Deutschland das Bürgergeld das System der Grundsicherung abgelöst, begleitet von zahlreichen politischen und medialen Kontroversen. Nach einem Jahr Bürgergeldreform wurden Beschäftigte in sieben Jobcentern in Nordrhein-Westfalen befragt, um eine erste Bilanz zur...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

Hiring subsidies are widely used to create (stable) employment for the long-term unemployed. This paper exploits the abolition of a hiring subsidy targeted at long-term unemployed jobseekers over 45 years of age in Belgium to evaluate its effectiveness in the short and medium run. Based on a...

We integrate social exclusion, operationalized in terms of long-term unemployment, into the theory of optimal redistributive taxation. Our results show how an optimal mix of education policy, public employment, and support to the unemployed, in conjunction with optimal income taxation,...

Statistical models can help public employment services to identify factors associated with long-term unemployment and to identify at-risk groups. Such profiling models will likely become more prominent as increasing availability of big data combined with new machine learning techniques improve...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

Purpose: Social spending is at the forefront of the tools used to repair the damage caused by the global epidemic. However, one of the most critical questions in recent days is as follows: what are the effects of social expenditures in eliminating unemployment? The primary purpose of this...

As we reach a post pandemic calming in the United States, and as we recall Covid-19’s immediate unemployment peak at record highs, it begs the question as to how our pandemic-driven recession compared to recession patterns witnessed during the 2008 economic crisis. By virtue of their wealth of...

Does unemployment duration matter for the measurement of economic slack and inflationary pressure? Using an empirical Phillips curve specification that is augmented to feature unemployment duration, we demonstrate that it is necessary to control for state-dependence in the Phillips curve in...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) and analyzes its main determinants using rich administrative data in Sweden. Compared to using standard socio-demographic variables, the predictive power more than doubles when leveraging the rich data environment. The largest...

Purpose: Social spending is at the forefront of the tools used to repair the damage caused by the global epidemic. However, one of the most critical questions in recent days is as follows: what are the effects of social expenditures in eliminating unemployment? The primary purpose of this...