This paper attempts to develop a framework for implementing the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) in Mongolia's banking sector by identifying early warning indicators of systemic risk and examining the impact of capital adequacy on bank lending. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, the...

Mongolia's economy is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2025, driven by a surge in copper production and a gradual recovery in the agriculture sector. While the medium-term growth outlook remains stable, significant risks and challenges remain, including the indirect effects of global trade...

This report presents the results of extensive research and collaborative efforts to improve Mongolia's social protection system's ability to adapt to covariate shocks and enhance herder resilience to climate shocks. It analyzes the existing social protection mechanisms, with specific attention...

Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon where individuals or households lack the resources to meet basic needs and fully participate in society. While it encompasses non-monetary dimensions such as social exclusion and inadequate access to essential services, it is often assessed through a...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between economic indicators, law enforcement mechanisms, and property-related crimes in Mongolia using a time-series econometric approach. Relying on the theoretical frameworks of Becker’s economic model of crime and Cantor and Land’s...

This background note provides more detail on the key findings for the health sector from the forthcoming World Bank 2025 Mongolia Public Finance Review. It is intended for policymakers and practitioners who are interested to know more about the efficiency of health spending in Mongolia. It can...

The substantial increase in public sector wages in Mongolia introduced in the 2023 supplementary budget has raised concerns about its potential spillover effects on private sector wages and subsequent inflationary pressures. Furthermore, both public and private sector wages have grown on average...

Fiscal policy plays an important macroeconomic role in Mongolia. On the one hand, fiscal expansion is seen as a measure to boost aggregate demand. On the other hand, import leakages mitigate the impact of fiscal expansion on growth. Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper...

A technical assistance mission assisted the National Statistical Office of Mongolia (NSO) in improving methods for the compilation of national accounts. The mission recommended that the NSO compiles the chain-linked time series of quarterly GDP instead of using the fixed-base approach. During...

Over the past two decades, Mongolia has achieved significant economic growth, achieving upper-middle-income status in 2024. To continue this trajectory of growth and development, Mongolia needs to tackle the increasing challenge of changing climate and extreme weather events, which threaten...

Since China's implementation of the reform and opening-up policy in 1978, Inner Mongolia's pastoral areas have faced challenges such as population outflow, aging, and the emptying of villages. To address these issues, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government promoted the "Collective...

The Government of Mongolia is committed to reducing the gender gap in life expectancy. Reducing the gender gap in life expectancy is an explicit objective of Mongolia's Cross-Sectoral Strategic Plan for Promoting Gender Equality in Mongolia (2022-31). The first plan to reduce the disparity in...

In this paper, we use a theoretical model to show that the development of the tourism industry is very likely to significantly reduce environmental problems in Mongolia. Among other issues, Mongolia suffers from an excessively large livestock population, which causes considerable environmental...

After three difficult years, a new phase of mining-led growth that began in late 2022 has helped Mongolia emerge from a period of acute macroeconomic imbalances. Despite improvements in fiscal and macroeconomic outcomes, some vulnerabilities persist. Mongolia has experienced repeated boom-bust...

In this paper, we use a theoretical model to show that the development of the tourism industry is very likely to significantly reduce environmental problems in Mongolia. Among other issues, Mongolia suffers from an excessively large livestock population, which causes considerable environmental...

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between economic indicators, law enforcement mechanisms, and property-related crimes in Mongolia using a time-series econometric approach. Relying on the theoretical frameworks of Becker’s economic model of crime and Cantor and Land’s...

This paper investigates the resilience of non-financial firms in Mongolia against financial distress. Utilizing firm-level financial data from 2013 to 2022, we employed a LASSO variable selection technique and logistic regression analysis to develop a distress prediction model for these firms....

Background Mongolia introduced liver transplantation 10 years ago, becoming the 46th country globally to successfully perform this procedure. However, the cost of liver transplantation treatment remains expensive in Mongolia, a lower-middle-income country. Thus, the need to calculate the cost of...

Mongolia's coal-driven economic growth since 2023 has elevated the country to upper-middle-income status (UMIC) in 2024. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has remained robust, driven by mining and transport services, despite a sharp contraction in the agriculture sector. On the demand...

The Country Opinion Survey in Mongolia assists the World Bank Group (WBG) in better understanding how stakeholders in Mongolia perceive the WBG. It provides the WBG with systematic feedback from national and local governments, multilateral/bilateral agencies, media, academia, the private sector,...

An IMF team found that Mongolia has made progress in public investment management since the 2016 PIMA. However, several challenges persist, and new issues are emerging. The team has identified five high-priority recommendations that could improve PIM processes and support the effective...

This paper examines the impact of access to markets on livestock-related income of herder households in Mongolia. The empirical findings show that reducing the distance to markets by ten kilometers increases household income by 1.0 percent on average.

This paper investigates the resilience of non-financial firms in Mongolia against financial distress. Utilizing firm-level financial data from 2013 to 2022, we employed a LASSO variable selection technique and logistic regression analysis to develop a distress prediction model for these firms....

This note, prepared at the request of the Ministry of Economy and Development, aims to analyze selected opportunities for Mongolia to diversify its economy and identifies specific policy options to realize them. Mongolia's growing dependence on mining exports, primarily to China creates...

Mongolia's economy has recovered but the current economic expansion was largely driven by strong coal exports. Public and private consumption growth also supported the economy, spurred by rising household income and the 2023 supplementary budget. Despite increased public spending, the...

Further to Mongolia's Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research...

Further to Mongolia's Ministry of Finance (MOF) request, an assessment mission was carried out from May 24 to June 2, 2023. The mission reviewed the needs, capacity and constraints for the development of institutional macroeconomic forecasting capacity at the Financial and Fiscal Research...

This policy note synthesizes the results of collaboration between the Government of Mongolia (GoM) and the World Bank that produced a body of analytic and advisory work that can be used to generate policy-relevant knowledge to manage and finance Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to address...

This book introduces the study of the impacts on organizational culture, strategy, technology, human resource development (HRD), transformational leadership, knowledge management, and organizational effectiveness using a hypothesis-driven model. The model posits that organizational culture,...

Using unique survey data from Georgia, Mongolia, and the Philippines, we examine gender gaps in entrepreneurship. The overall incidence of entrepreneurship is highest in Cavite, Philippines, while the gender gap in ownership is highest in Mongolia. On average, enterprises operated by men have...

This paper provides novel evidence on how risk exposure shapes the demand for index-based weather insurance. The focus is on Mongolia, where index insurance is offered as a commercially marketed product to pastoralists threatened by extreme weather events that cause high livestock mortality....

Individual perception about climate risks is critical for adopting mitigation and adaptation measures, yet international experience shows that individual perception might fundamentally deviate from objective changes. So far, little attention has been paid in the literature to understanding the...

We investigate the effectiveness of large electricity subsidies aimed at reducing the consumption of dirty energy and improving the ambient air quality. We exploit a policy change in Mongolia that provides 50–100 percent tariff subsidy on the off-peak hour consumption to households in some...

Economic diversification has gained significant attention as a crucial factor for sustainable development worldwide. This paper addresses the risks associated with extreme specialisation and explores the potential benefits of economic diversification for Mongolia. By comparing Mongolia with its...

Purpose: This study examines the factors affecting the online shopping behavior of agricultural products in inner Mongolia on e-Commerce - a case study of the Douyin platform. The dependent variable is agricultural products of characteristics purchases, while independent variables are perceived...

The transition towards a sustainable and environmentally conscious society necessitates the significance of sustainable utilities, making it imperative to examine the factors influencing sustainable utilities investment. This research aims to investigate the determinants of sustainable utilities...

This paper investigates the determinants of financial inclusion in Mongolia – a country where persistent “reverse” gender gap in financial inclusion exists. Results show that women, and those who are more educated and older are more likely to be financially included. Women are four...

We investigate the effectiveness of large electricity subsidies aimed at reducing the consumption of dirty energy and improving the ambient air quality. We exploit a policy change in Mongolia that provides 50--100 percent subsidy to households in some regions, allowing us to use...

This paper provides novel evidence on how risk exposure shapes the demand for index-based weather insurance. The focus is on Mongolia, where index insurance is offered as a commercially marketed product to pastoralists threatened by extreme weather events that cause high livestock mortality....

Mongolia's economic conditions stabilized by 2023H2, helped by China's reopening. The economy was in a challenging position in 2022 with widening external and internal imbalances due to multiple global shocks, policy excesses and governance lapses. However, greater exchange rate (ER)...

This paper highlights the details of the technical assistance (TA) provided to the Bank of Mongolia (BOM) on central bank communications. The purpose of the mission was to assist the authorities in enhancing the existing communication framework of BOM, and to suggest a roadmap for eventual...