Highly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environments (VUCA) complicate and condition project management. With the emergence of agile project management, it is proposed to co-construct it with the client's active participation. Two used agile methodologies are Scrum and Kanban. Scrum is...

A popular approach to perform inference on a target parameter in the presence of nuisance parameters is to construct estimating equations that are orthogonal to the nuisance parameters, in the sense that their expected first derivative is zero. Such first-order orthogonalization may, however,...

We investigate a bracketing property that purports to yield upper- and lower bounds on the treatment effects obtained from a fixed effects- and lagged dependent variable model. Referencing both analytical results and a Monte Carlo simulation, we explore the conditions under which the bracketing...

This paper introduces a novel approach to simulation smoothing for nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space models. It allows for computing smoothed estimates of the states and nonlinear functions of the states, as well as visualizing the joint smoothing distribution. The approach combines...

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of our lives. Among other outcomes, the academic literature and popular media both discuss the potential effects of the pandemic on fertility. As fertility is an important determinant of population development and population forecasts are important...

In this paper, tests for fractional cointegration that allow for structural breaks in the long-run equilibrium are proposed. Traditional cointegration tests cannot handle shifts in fractional cointegration relationships, a limitation addressed here by allowing for a time-dependent memory...

This paper proposes the use of Bayesian inference techniques to search for and obtain valid instruments in dynamic panel data models where endogenous variables may exist. The use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) allows for obtaining a reduced number of instruments in comparison to the high...

In econometrics, Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) models use high-frequency economic or financial duration data, which mostly exhibit irregular time intervals. The ACD model is widely used to examine the duration of transaction volume and duration of price variations in stock markets....

Fiscal multipliers provide a way of quantifying the GDP gain for a given (discretionary) fiscal policy intervention. I compute government consumption multipliers for New Zealand, in normal times and when monetary policy is constrained at the effective lower bound, using an estimated...

This study proposes a new optimisation framework based on Monte Carlo embedded hybrid variant mean-variance mapping (MVMO-SH) optimisation​ for planning Photovoltaic Distributed Generation (PVDG) in the urban Radial Distribution Network (RDN). The Active Power Loss (APL) index was calculated...

: Plain or crude Monte Carlo simulation (CMC) is commonly applied for estimating multiperiod tail risk measures such as value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES). After fitting a volatility model to the past history of returns and estimating the conditional distribution of innovations, one...

This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of Russian banks, identify the factors influencing it based on their size and ownership type, and forecast future trends in the banking sector. The analysis utilized data from 680 Russian banks over the period 2000-2023, employing Data Envelopment...

This paper proposes nonparametric estimates for the two information measures extropy and entropy when a progressively Type-I interval censored data is available. Different nonparametric approaches are used for deriving the estimates, including: moments of the empirical cumulative distribution...

Managing a portfolio whose value closely tracks an index by trading only in a subset of the index constituents involves an NP-hard optimisation problem. In the prior literature, it has been suggested that this problem be solved using sequential Monte Carlo (SMC, also known as particle filter)...

This paper addresses the challenges associated with pricing exotic options, specifically path-dependent ones, with a focus on the limitations of standard Monte Carlo simulations and the advantages provided by Conditional Monte Carlo methods, introduced by Babsiri and Noel in 1998. Path dependent...

Commonly used priors for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) induce shrinkage on the autoregressive coefficients. Introducing shrinkage on the error covariance matrix is sometimes done but, in the vast majority of cases, without considering the network structure of the shocks and by placing the prior...