Despite the "interest rate turnaround" initiated by the ECB in the second half of 2022 as a late reaction to the clearly underestimated persistence of high inflation rates in the euro area, real interest rates are by no means to be regarded as restrictive, neither in the ex post nor in the ex...

We study the effect of Department of Justice lawsuits in the 2010s against large lenders for alleged fraud in the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage insurance program. The suits led to more than $5 billion in settlements and caused targeted banks and their peers to precipitously exit...

Using administrative data on mortgages issued in Italy between 2018 and 2019, this paper estimates loan demand elasticities to maturity and interest rate. We find that households are responsive to both contract terms: a 1% decrease in interest rate increases the average loan size by 0.22%...

The family home is the most important asset on household balance sheets, aside from human capital. Choosing a suitable mortgage is therefore critical to financial well-being but households often make costly mistakes. We collect data in an online survey to test borrowers' comfort with, and...

Physical climate risks can have a large regional impact, which can influence mortgage loans' credit risk and should be priced by the lenders. Motivated by the relevance of climate change for financial intermediaries, our paper aims at analysing if physical climate risks are being reflected in...

Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of...

Physical climate risks can have a large regional impact, which can influence mortgage loans' credit risk and should be priced by the lenders. Motivated by the relevance of climate change for financial intermediaries, our paper aims at analysing if physical climate risks are being reflected in...

Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) helped supporting bank lending to firms and to households in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of TLTRO funding for mortgage loans to households had explicitly not been included into the targeted loan categories of these schemes,...

In dynamic models of asset markets with asymmetric information and endogenous screening, the anticipation of signaling through delayed sales incentivizes originators to exert greater effort ex ante. A central prediction in those models is a positive relationship between screening effort and the...

Housing markets are affected by a large variety of factors. Among them, governmental regulations play an important role. Besides desired effects, all these policies exert a number of side effects, some of which can even offset the desired effects. In addition, different policies can cancel out...

Using a monthly panel dataset of individuals' debt, we show that house price changes can explain a significant fraction of personal debt composition dynamics. We exploit the variation in local house price growth as shocks to homeowners' housing wealth to study the consequential adjustment of...

Housing and mortgage choices are among the largest financial decisions households make and they substantially impact households' liquidity. This paper explores how monetary policy affects aggregate demand by influencing these portfolio choices. To quantify this channel, I build a...

This paper investigates the role of mortgage refinancing in shaping the estimates of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for fiscal policy. Using U.S. household data, we find that MPCs decrease during the year of mortgage refinancing and stabilize afterwards, particularly...

This paper explores how policies that allow lenders to pursue borrowers for remaining debt after mortgage foreclosure (mortgage recourse) influence key aspects of the housing market and the broader macroeconomy. To this end, I develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model...

What stimulus payments replicate the consumption effect of a desired (but potentially infeasible) interest rate cut? Using granular full-population administrative data, we estimate consumption responses to interest rate changes via adjustable-rate mortgage resets and lump-sum cash windfalls from...

This paper examines the impact of mortgage market structures on shaping economic responses to the unprecedented interest rate and inflation dynamics of 2021-2024. We first empirically document that economies with a larger share of variable-rate mortgages exhibit stronger responses in house...

This report constitutes the final deliverable for a study on the impacts of a possible revision of the Mortgage Credit Directive (MCD). The main objective of this study is to provide sound evidence and analysis to support the European Commission for a possible revision of the MCD. This section...

This report presents the findings of a study conducted by ICF on behalf of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union (DG FISMA) to provide evidence and analysis to support the Commission's formal evaluation of the Mortgage...