A robust model for natural gas prices should simultaneously capture the observed prices of both futures and options. While incorporating a seasonal factor in the convenience yield of the spot price effectively replicates forward curves, it proves insufficient for accurately modelling the options...

This paper argues for a change in government attitudes to their extractive industries: as enclaves useful primarily as revenue sources. This is too narrow a perspective: it fails to recognize the broader economic linkages that are invariably possible. Achieving greater economic impact requires...

This paper analyses the risks facing resource-dependent countries. These include: (i) economic mismanagement (the 'resource curse'); (ii) political mismanagement; (iii) environmental damage (climate change and the destruction of natural capital). It distinguishes 'risk' (which can be addressed...

The extractives industries are highly controversial but remain vitally important in much of the developing world. This paper considers their role in reducing energy poverty and discusses scenarios for the future of the global markets for oil, gas, and metals (emphasizing the increasing...

Companies in the oil, gas, and mining sectors face ever intensifying scrutiny over their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices and impacts: from civil society but also from investment funds and other stakeholders with ESG mandates. Companies with good practices-and the paper...

This paper analyses the roles that states, civil society, and international actors can play in tackling the weak governance that sometimes leads to resources being used for private rather than public benefit. It discusses the corruption that bedevils licensing and commodities trading; and oil...

Prices of natural gas, coal, and electricity have risen to the highest level of the last ten years in the last quarter of 2021. It’s possible to express that energy prices in 2021 were much higher, compared to the crisis of 2020’s Covid-19 breakout’s historical descent in the first few...

This study uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to examine the relationships between the intensity of drilling (i.e. investment) for natural gas production, natural gas withdrawals, economic activity and natural gas prices in the United States. The results show that the reaction...

In 2024, one of the most notable developments in the Azerbaijani economy that demands detailed analysis is the transformation of foreign trade statistics. This article provides an in-depth examination of Azerbaijan's foreign trade landscape in 2024, focusing on its dynamics, structure, and...

Following the Paris Agreement, economic development demands energy services while reducing emissions. This study focuses on non-residential natural gas consumption, which plays a crucial role in the energy transition; however, market-based mechanisms are still in the early stages and have not...

To effectively manage natural gas dispatchability, the energy industry needs to precisely analyze the seasonal trends of natural gas production and consumption. However, most predictive models demand data pretreatment and are labor-intensive. To address this, a novel seasonal discrete grey...

The gas price explosion during the 2021/22 European energy crisis prompted a shift from gas- to coal-fired electricity production. Empirical evidence on the environmental and health consequences of such a fuel-price shock - as opposed to policy reforms - is scarce. We fill this gap by...

This activity focused on metallic non-refillable gas cartridges for LPG (UN No. 2037) (gas cartridges) included in Directive 2010/35/EU on transportable pressure equipment (TPED). Gas cartridges were identified by the MSAs as a priority for a targeted compliance and safety investigation. The...

We identify supply and demand shocks to the real price of natural gas in the Euro Area and the United States. Demand shocks are identified using exogenous temperature variations, while supply shocks are identified through a high-frequency strategy based on an extensive collection of...

This Paper analyses the results of the trading data in 2024 for the European traded gas hubs, to give a fuller picture of the recovery after the very turbulent period from 2020 to 2022, where the various hubs now stand and, more importantly, to establish whether the Dutch TTF can now credibly be...

This research models and examines multiple decarbonisation pathways for Europe to 2050, evaluating trade-offs between emissions reductions, costs, and implications for gas demand. Scenarios that front-load decarbonisation to 2040 show prohibitively high marginal abatement costs, while a more...

The European Union’s Methane Emissions Regulation (EU MER), effective from August 2024, introduces a methane intensity standard for fossil fuel imports into the EU. It places new compliance requirements on EU importers and, indirectly, on non-EU producers and exporters, including those...

Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors: the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia's own supply cuts, physical damage to the...

Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

The EU Methane Regulation (MER), effective as of August 4, 2024, introduces new obligations for domestically produced and imported crude oil, natural gas, and coal. While compliance with new import requirements primarily falls on European Union (EU) importers, their ability to meet them hinges...

Aligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022-24. However, the...

Ziel des Projektes war die Analyse der makroökonomischen Effekte unterschiedlicher Szenarien auf der Grundlage der langfristigen Gaslieferverträge von Österreich mit Russland. Die makroökonomischen Effekte der einzelnen Szenarien wurden mit dem WIFO-Modell ADAGIO (A DynAmic Global Input...

Natural gas is a crucial element of energy supply in Great Britain (GB). The vast majority of GB gas consumption occurs in three main sectors: industry, Local Distribution Zone (residential, commercial, and services), and power generation. While there are strong seasonal patterns of demand...

Forecasting natural gas demand is critical for enhancing energy efficiency, optimizing infrastructure planning, and supporting Tunisia's transition toward sustainable energy. As the fastest-growing fossil fuel and one of the cleanest among non-renewable energy sources, natural gas plays a...