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  • Search: subject_exact:"Natural rate of unemployment"
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Year of publication
Subject
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Natural rate of unemployment 1,413 Natürliche Arbeitslosenquote 1,391 Theorie 498 Theory 495 Unemployment 474 Arbeitslosigkeit 471 Phillips curve 449 Phillips-Kurve 441 Schätzung 321 Estimation 318 United States 270 USA 268 Geldpolitik 234 Monetary policy 233 Inflation 183 Theorie der Arbeitslosigkeit 152 Unemployment theory 152 Hysteresis 131 Hysterese 128 natural rate of unemployment 103 Großbritannien 97 United Kingdom 97 NAIRU 95 EU countries 85 EU-Staaten 85 OECD-Staaten 85 OECD countries 84 Arbeitsmarkt 77 Deutschland 76 Germany 76 Labour market 68 Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit 68 Konjunktur 66 Structural unemployment 65 Business cycle 64 State space model 60 Zustandsraummodell 60 Potential output 59 Produktionspotenzial 59 unemployment 59
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Online availability
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Free 571 Undetermined 138 CC license 7
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 863 Article 640 Other 1
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 492 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 492 Working Paper 476 Arbeitspapier 459 Graue Literatur 458 Non-commercial literature 458 Aufsatz im Buch 101 Book section 101 Hochschulschrift 23 Rezension 19 Thesis 18 Amtsdruckschrift 12 Government document 12 Collection of articles of several authors 9 Collection of articles written by one author 9 Sammelwerk 9 Sammlung 9 Bibliografie enthalten 7 Bibliography included 7 Systematic review 7 Übersichtsarbeit 7 Konferenzschrift 5 Conference proceedings 3 Reprint 3 Advisory report 2 Aufsatzsammlung 2 Country report 2 Forschungsbericht 2 Gutachten 2 Interview 2 Länderbericht 2 Conference paper 1 Konferenzbeitrag 1 Lehrbuch 1 Textbook 1 research-article 1
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Language
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English 1,310 German 69 Undetermined 63 Spanish 21 French 16 Polish 7 Italian 5 Portuguese 3 Russian 3 Czech 2 Dutch 2 Romanian 1 Slovak 1 Swedish 1 Turkish 1
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Author
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Karanassou, Marika 49 Williams, John C. 45 Orphanides, Athanasios 39 Snower, Dennis J. 39 Sala, Hector 26 Ball, Laurence M. 24 Gordon, Robert J. 21 Gylfi Zoega 19 Stockhammer, Engelbert 19 Franz, Wolfgang 18 Sargent, Thomas J. 18 Phelps, Edmund S. 16 Blanchard, Olivier 15 Groenewold, Nicolaas 15 Blanchflower, David G. 14 Hein, Eckhard 14 Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin 14 Tansel, Aysıt 14 Crump, Richard K. 13 Laxton, Douglas 13 Storm, Servaas 13 Wieland, Volker 13 Şahin, Ayşegül 13 Fabiani, Silvia 12 Logeay, Camille 12 Tasci, Murat 12 Eusepi, Stefano 11 Giannoni, Marc Paolo 11 Mankiw, Nicholas Gregory 11 Sawyer, Malcolm C. 11 Stock, James H. 11 Gil-Alaña, Luis A. 10 Greenslade, Jennifer V. 10 Hagger, Alfred J. 10 Henry, S. G. B. 10 Komlos, John 10 Naastepad, Carola W. M. 10 Hall, Robert E. 9 Hogan, Vincent 9 Hoon, Hian Teck 9
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Institution
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) 31 National Bureau of Economic Research 27 International Monetary Fund 12 Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München 5 Birkbeck College / Department of Economics 4 Conference on European Unemployment - Macroeconomic Aspects <1996, Fiesole> 4 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 4 Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) 4 C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3 Centre for Economic Policy Research 3 School of Economics, UNSW Business School 3 Central Bank of Cyprus 2 Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Institut für Weltwirtschaft 2 Harvard Institute of Economic Research 2 Johns Hopkins University / Department of Economics 2 Kieler Konjunkturgespräch <58, 1998, Kiel> 2 Queen Mary College / Department of Economics 2 School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary 2 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 2 Australian National University / Centre for Economic Policy Research 1 Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich 1 Bank of England 1 Belgien / Bureau du Plan 1 CESifo 1 Centre for Economic Performance 1 Centre for Economic Research <Dublin> 1 Centre for International Macroeconomics 1 Centre of Policy Studies and Impact Project (COPS), Victoria University 1 Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University 1 DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) 1 Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University 1 Dipartimento di Economia Politica e Statistics, Facoltà di Economia "Richard M. Goodwin" 1 Dipartimento di Economia e Management, Università degli Studi di Trento 1 Economic Policy Institute <Washington, DC> 1 Economic Research Institute 1 Edward Elgar Publishing 1 Ekonomiska Forskningsinstitutet 1 European Commission / Statistical Office of the European Communities 1 Evangelisches Studienwerk 1 Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfskunde, Universiteit Gent 1
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Published in...
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NBER working paper series 27 NBER Working Paper 25 IMF Working Papers 21 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 20 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 18 Finance and economics discussion series 17 Discussion paper series / IZA 16 Working paper 16 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 13 Journal of monetary economics 12 IMF working paper 11 The American economic review 11 Kiel working paper 10 Oxford economic papers 10 Review of Keynesian economics 10 Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 10 Applied economics letters 9 Discussion paper 9 IMF working papers 9 Working paper series / European Central Bank 9 Brookings papers on economic activity : BPEA 8 Challenge 8 European economic review : EER 8 IMF Staff Country Reports 8 IZA Discussion Papers 8 Journal of macroeconomics 8 OECD working papers 8 The economic record : er 8 Working papers / OECD, Economics Department 8 CESifo working papers 7 IZA Discussion Paper 7 Journal of post-Keynesian economics : JPKE 7 Working papers / The Levy Economics Institute 7 Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute 6 Discussion papers in economics 6 Economic modelling 6 Economics letters 6 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper series 6 Journal of economic literature 6 OECD Economics Department Working Papers 6
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 1,395 RePEc 89 EconStor 17 BASE 1 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 1 Other ZBW resources 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 1,504
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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, 𝑢𝑡 ∗ , in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014501075
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The natural rate of unemployment in Estonia: empirical determinants and a new semi-structuralmodel
Kulikov, Dmitry; Reigl, Nicolas - 2023
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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023
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Labor market effects of COVID-19 shocks
Frenkel, Michael; Stadtmann, Georg; Zimmermann, Lilli - In: International journal of management and economics 59 (2023) 1, pp. 3-12
We study the impact of several Covid-19 related supply shocks. We use a standard wage setting-price setting model of the labor market and analyze the transmission of the shocks to the natural rate of unemployment and production. In a first step, the shocks are analyzed in a general way,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014310081
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The active role of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014423725
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Three theories of natural rate dynamics
Nuño, Galo - 2025 - This version: April 2025
The natural interest rate is the real rate that would prevail in the long-run. The standard view in macroeconomics is that the natural rate depends exclusively on structural factors such as productivity growth and demographics. This paper challenges this view by discussing three alternative, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401982
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The devolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy strategy, 2012-24
Ireland, Peter N. - In: Southern economic journal 91 (2025) 4, pp. 1247-1264
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Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis
Guisinger, Amy; Jackson, Laura; Owyang, Michael T. - 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013367788
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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2024
Using a New Keynesian Phillips curve, we document the rapid and persistent increase in the natural rate of unemployment, ut*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014581875
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Navigating by falling stars : monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates
Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015175689
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The job guarantee : MMT's proposal for full employment and price stability
Tcherneva, Pavlina R. - 2024
Orthodox economic theory presents the policy maker with an impossible choice: eradicate unemployment at the cost of undesirable inflation or keep prices stable by maintaining some level of involuntary unemployment. This is the canon, as embodied in the natural rate of unemployment theory and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015135049
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Navigating by falling stars : monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates
Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014580855
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Testing the waters of positive hysteresis : the effects of autonomous demand shocks on inflation, accumulation, and labor in the US economy
Di Domenico, Lorenzo; Gahn, Santiago José; Romaniello, … - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014547037
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Navigating by falling stars: monetary policy with fiscally driven natural rates
Campos, Rodolfo G.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - 2024
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Assessing full employment in Australia
Ballantyne, Alexander; Sharma, Avish; Taylor, Tim - In: Bulletin / Reserve Bank of Australia (2024), pp. 1-12
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Full employment : a survey of theory, empirics and policies
Lichtenberger, Andreas; Heimberger, Philipp; Arsenev, … - 2024
The concept of full employment is associated with diverse economic, political and social aspects. We provide a survey of theory, empirics and policy issues related to full employment. We make a novel contribution by tying together multi-dimensional aspects of full employment regarding...
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Monetary policy, employment shortfalls, and the natural rate hypothesis
Kiley, Michael T. - 2024
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The unemployment invariance hypothesis and the implications of added and discouraged worker effects in Latin America
Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel - In: Latin American economic review : LAER ; official … 33 (2024), pp. 1-25
This research explores the long-term equilibrium relationship between unemployment and labour force participation rates for six selected countries in Latin America at both aggregate and gender-disaggregated levels. Cointegration analysis focused on the study of time series is used to validate...
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Estimating time-varying potential output and NAIRU using a multivariate filter for Türkiye
Gökcü, Mert - In: Central Bank review / Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey 24 (2024) 2, pp. 1-12
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach for estimating potential output and NAIRU developed for Türkiye by integrating the capacity utilization block into the model. The model gives more negative estimates of the output gap and smaller estimates of NAIRU in recession periods...
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Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa
Dadam, Vincent; Viegi, Nicola - In: The South African journal of economics 92 (2024) 3, pp. 331-353
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Another strange non-death : the NAIRU and the ideational foundations of the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework
Arbogast, Tobias; Doorslaer, Hielke van; Vermeiren, Mattias - In: Review of international political economy 31 (2024) 3, pp. 805-830
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Age and gender differentials in unemployment and hysteresis
Guisinger, Amy Y.; Jackson, Laura; Owyang, Michael T. - In: Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics : SNDE ; … 28 (2024) 4, pp. 567-581
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The Active Role of the Natural Rate of Unemployment during Cyclical Recoveries
Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna - 2023
We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the prevailing view that the rate is essentially constant. We demonstrate that this tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014469353
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Estimating natural rates of unemployment : a primer
Bok, Brandyn; Crump, Richard K.; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2023
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Natural unemployment and activity rates in Italy : flow-based determinants and implications for price dynamics
D'Amuri, Francesco; De Philippis, Marta; … - In: Economic policy 38 (2023) 116, pp. 865-898
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Investigating unemployment hysteresis in South Africa
Viegi, Nicola; Dadam, Vincent - 2023
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The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... A Curve
Ascari, Guido; Bonomolo, Paolo; Haque, Qazi - 2023
In U.S. data, inflation and output are negatively related in the long run. A Bayesian VAR with stochastic trends generalized to be piecewise linear provides robust reduced-form evidence in favor of a threshold level of trend inflation of around 4%, below which potential output is independent of...
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The NAIRU, Aggregate Demand, and Investment
Sawyer, Malcolm C. - 2023
The nature of the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment is analysed. The focus of our analysis is the role of aggregate demand and capacity in the context of the NAIRU. Two aspects of the relationship between the level of aggregate demand and the NAIRU are of particular significance....
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Investigation of the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate of Pakistan
Ghoto, Abbas Ali; Mir Ghulam Hyder Talpur; Kamboh, … - In: Iranian economic review : journal of University of Tehran 27 (2023) 4, pp. 1307-1325
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A constant gain learning framework to understand the behaviour of US inflation and unemployment in the 2nd half of 20th century
Raamasrinivas, M.Venkata; Srinivasan, Naveen - 2020
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Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics
Huber, Florian; Kaufmann, Daniel - 2019
We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012118184
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Hysteresis in Unemployment
Blanchard, Olivier; Summers, Lawrence Henry - 2022
The recent European experience of high persistent unemployment has led to the development of theories of unemployment hysteresis embodying the idea that the equilibrium unemployment rate depends on the history of the actual unemployment rate. This paper summarizes two directions of research on...
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The NAIRU and informality in the Mexican labor market
Aguilar-Argaez, Ana María; Alcaraz, Carlo; Ramírez, … - 2022
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Inflation, the Fed, and the Stewardship of Chairman Powell
Webster, Thomas Joseph - 2022
This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...
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Long-term unemployment, hysteresis and missing deflation : reconsidering the New-Keynesian approach by means of an 'old' Phillips curve
Romaniello, Davide - 2022
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The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited : The Phillips Curve in COVID Times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We estimate the natural rate of unemployment, often referred to as u*, in the United States using data on labor market flows, short-term and long-term inflation expectations and a forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve for the 1960-2021 period. The natural rate of unemployment was at...
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The Fed and the New Economy
Ball, Laurence M.; Tchaidze, Robert - 2022
This paper seeks to understand the behavior of Greenspan's Federal Reserve in the late 1990s. Some authors suggest that the Fed followed a simple 'Taylor rule,' while others argue that it deviated from such a rule because it recognized that the 'New Economy' permitted an easing of policy. We...
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Hysteresis in Unemployment : Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate
Ball, Laurence M.; Onken, Joern - 2022
This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the OECD. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our...
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Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021 : the role of power and institutions
Setterfield, Mark; Blecker, Robert A. - 2022
This paper provides an institutional-analytical account of changes in the structure of the US Phillips curve (PC) during the post-war period. It does so by restoring conflict and power to the forefront of macro theory and, in particular, the wage- and price-setting behaviour of workers and...
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Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine
Vdovychenko, Artem - 2022
In this study, we apply the Kalman filter to estimate the set of reduced-form Phillips curves for different types of inflation in Ukraine. Based on the estimated models, we derive a number of series of non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that provide information about the...
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25 years of excess unemployment in advanced economies : lessons for monetary policy
Gagnon, Joseph E.; Sarsenbayev, Madi - 2022
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The effectiveness of government measures in the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic
Jasova, Emilie; Kaderabkova, Bozena - In: International journal of economic sciences : IJES 11 (2022) 1, pp. 19-36
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The US labour market after the COVID-19 recession
Gómez Salvador, Ramón; Soudan, Michel - 2022
The US economy has endured an exceptionally severe recession caused by the measures put in place to contain the spread of COVID-19. This occasional paper assesses the impact of this crisis on key labour market variables, such as (un-) employment, wages and productivity, and highlights the...
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Transfers, Taxes, and the NAIRU
Hamermesh, Daniel S. - 2022
Just as war is too important to be left to the generals, the impact of taxes and transfers on the aggregate unemployment rate is too important to be left to the macroeconomists. I therefore subject the issue of how tax and transfer policy affects unemployment and aggregate supply to a detailed,...
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Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States
Tuzemen, Didem - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011846508
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Missing wage inflation? : estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear dsge model
Iwasaki, Yuto; Muto, Ichiro; Shintani, Mototsugu - 2018
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Conflict, inertia, and Phillips Curve from a Sraffian standpoint
Serrano, Franklin; Summa, Ricardo; Morlin, Guilherme Spinato - In: Review of political economy 36 (2024) 4, pp. 1510-1535
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Is there a stable relationship between unemployment and future inflation?
Fitzgerald, Terry J.; Jones, Callum; Kulish, Mariano; … - In: American economic journal 16 (2024) 4, pp. 114-142
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Natural rate of financial inclusion : a global database
Ozili, Peterson K. - In: Economic change & restructuring 57 (2024) 6, pp. 1-63
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The unemployment-inflation trade-off revisited : the Phillips curve in COVID times
Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - In: Journal of monetary economics 145 (2024), pp. 1-19
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