Contrary to claims in studies on financial economics, a sparse database often obscures the identification of parameters in macroeconomic models. These identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Hence, researchers rely...

We study how uncertainty shocks affect the macroeconomy across the inflation cycle using a nonlinear stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR. When inflation is high, uncertainty shocks raise inflation and depress real activity more sharply. A non-linear New Keynesian model with second-moment shocks...

This paper illustrates a behavioral mixed frequency macro-finance model where both real and financial variables are generated on a daily basis. Further, while financial sector data is collected at the same frequency as it is generated (i.e. daily), real data can only be collected on a quarterly...

We introduce a novel simulated certainty equivalent approximation (SCEQ) method for solving dynamic stochastic problems. Our examples show that SCEQ can quickly solve high-dimensional finite- or infinite-horizon, stationary or non- stationary dynamic stochastic problems with hundreds of state...

We use an analytically tractable heterogeneous‐agent (HANK) version of the standard New Keynesian model to show how the size of fiscal multipliers depends on (i) the distribution of factor incomes, and (ii) the source of nominal rigidities. With sticky prices but flexible wages, the standard...

Contrary to claims in studies on financial economics, a sparse database often obscures the identification of parameters in macroeconomic models. These identification problems originate from the poorly defined mapping between a structural model and reduced-form parameters. Hence, researchers rely...

We study how uncertainty shocks affect the macroeconomy across the inflation cycle using a nonlinear stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR. When inflation is high, uncertainty shocks raise inflation and depress real activity more sharply. A non-linear New Keynesian model with second-moment shocks...

We use an estimated medium-scale HANK model to investigate how the tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and consumption volatility varies for households with different levels of wealth. Consumption for the rich is mostly affected by demand shocks via their exposure to highly procyclical...

This paper analyzes the unanalized topic in macroeconomic (monetary) politics, which is the emergence of the currency crisis as a consequence of targeting inflation. Many central banks adopted inflation targeting under a pressure from the IMF. Sudden depreciation of exchange rate which results...

I show that in a canonical HANK model, under a balanced budget fiscal rule, the effect of a nominal interest rate peg is much larger than in a representative agent (RA) model. By contrast, under a standard fiscal rule where tax revenue responds gradually to deviations of the debt-to-GDP ratio...

We introduce an estimated medium scale Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian model for forecasting and policy analysis in the Euro Area and discuss the applications of this type of models in central banks, focusing on two main exercises. First, we examine an alternative scenario for monetary policy...

What is the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs? This paper explores this question within an open-economy New Keynesian model, characterizes the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, and shows that the optimal monetary policy response is expansionary, with inflation rising above and beyond...

This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers and the economy's cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing literature, which predominantly relies on predefined...

Building on a New Keynesian rational expectations framework, we develop a structural empirical model that jointly determines the real exchange rate, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in a small open economy. Employing a full-information system design and estimation approach that avoids...

This study analyzes the drivers of inflation in South Korea using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the characteristics of Korea as a small open economy. Employing quarterly data from 1999Q2 to 2023Q2, Bayesian estimation is used to estimate Korea-specific...

The natural interest rate is the real rate that would prevail in the long-run. The standard view in macroeconomics is that the natural rate depends exclusively on structural factors such as productivity growth and demographics. This paper challenges this view by discussing three alternative, and...

We characterize optimal monetary policy under state-dependent pricing. The framework gives rise to nonlinear inflation dynamics: The flexibility of the price level increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency of price changes. In response to large cost-push shocks,...