Geopolitics is an overarching characteristic of much of this outlook for the key themes in the global energy economy in 2025. The start of Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will herald new pressures to multiple layers of the global economy, from trade to labour, monetary policy to...

While there is a large body of literature on oil uncertainty-equity prices and/or returns nexus, an associated important question of how oil market uncertainty affects stock market bubbles remains unanswered. In this paper, we first use the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity...

This paper examines the effects of climate policies and energy shocks on mean and volatility spillovers between green and brown stock price indices in five countries (Canada, India, Japan, the UK and the US). More specifically, bivariate GARCH-BEKK models including dummy variables controlling...

This paper examines how central banks respond to supply-side shocks and investigates the trade-offs they face in stabilizing inflation and output. To do so we develop a dual external instrument proxy structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to disentangle the macroeconomic effects of oil...

This paper employs predictive regressions to explore the predictability of sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread dynamics of relevant oil-producing countries. By incorporating oil prices and additional control variables, we predict the rate of CDS spread changes for Brazil, the UK,...

To reduce funds for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports using Western services. To sell above that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” which uses no such services. We use a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s...

We build a general equilibrium model to study how climate transition risks affect energy prices and the valuations of different firms in the energy sector. We consider two types of fossil fuel firms: incumbents that have developed oil reserves they can extract today or tomorrow, and new entrants...

Purpose - The primary purpose of this study is to unveil the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, with a specific focus on five major oil-importing countries. By examining this relationship, the research aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors and...

Purpose - Developing price forecasts for various agricultural commodities has long been a significant undertaking for a variety of agricultural market players. The weekly wholesale price of edible oil in the Chinese market over a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010 to January 3, 2020, is the...

This study examines the simultaneous relationships among oil prices, oil volatility, and two sub-sectors within alternative energy stocks: renewable energy equipment (REE) and alternative fuels (AF). The results confirm the existence of a bidirectional relationship. While most alternative energy...

Globalization and liberalization have heightened the volatility and complexity of financial markets, prompting investors to diversify their portfolios across different asset classes. This study investigates the dynamic interrelationships among the Indian stock market benchmark index (Nifty 50),...

This research employs a quadratic exponential model to examine the dynamics of fiscal adjustments in the context of oil shocks. The findings suggest significant state dependence, with past fiscal adjustments increasing the likelihood of future adjustments and an asymmetry in oil shock effects....

This paper examines the effect of national income on the total fertility rate (children born per woman). We estimate the effects on fertility of shocks to national per capita income using plausibly exogenous variations in oil price shock as an instrument for income and using instrumental...

A new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is creating headwinds for the nascent economic recovery from the deep recession spurred by the pandemic's onset and related oil price shocks. Over the medium term, reforms supporting improved governance, economic diversification, and resilience will help...

We study the potential effects on the real economy and welfare of four fiscal policy responses to an energy supply shock: energy vouchers to all households, only to lowincome households, or to non-energy goods producers, and subsidies for investments in the energy sector. The analysis relies on...

After the beginning of the war in Ukraine, energy prices in Germany increased drastically. The paper analyses responses of German firms to this energy price shock. A variety of measures and reactions at the firm-level are explored, such as substituting machinery and equipment by less energy...