We propose a robust semi-parametric framework for persistent time-varying extreme tail behavior, including extreme Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The framework builds on Extreme Value Theory and uses a conditional version of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for...

Despite the introduction of several adjustments, mitigating data anomalies in financial datasets has proven challenging, particularly in the context of cryptocurrencies with extreme values and increased volatility. The progress in properly addressing these anomalies prior to testing remains...

This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of German firms, I elicit (i) the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and (ii) firms’ exposure to such an event. I...

The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftentimes estimated using the multivariate least squares (MLS)...

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...

This paper explores the financial stability implications of acute physical climate change risks using a novel approach focusing on a severe season associated with a series of tropical cyclone and flood events. Our approach was recently applied to study physical risks in the Mexican financial...

Studying the extreme value theory (EVT) involves multiple main objectives, among them the estimation of the tail index parameter. Some estimation methods are used to estimate the tail index parameter like maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Additionally, the Hill estimator is one type of...

This study investigates the simplicity and adequacy of tail-based risk measures-valueat-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES)-when applied to tail targeting of the extreme value (EV) model. We implement Lévy-VaR and ES risk measures as full density-based alternatives to the generalized Pareto...

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...

In this study, we use daily gold log-returns to analyse the quality of forecasting expected shortfalls (ES) using volatility and models based on the extreme value theory (EVT). ES forecasts were calculated for conditional APARCH models formed on the entire distribution of returns, as well as for...

This paper presents a Machine Learning approach adopted at the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Malta to detect outliers in the Maltese Pension Schemes and Insurance datasets, which are collected by the Bank, at micro-level. The motive behind this study is to develop an outlier...

We analyse the effect of COVID-19 on the Okun's law relationship for several EU countries and the US. Results are based on regressions and a systematic DF-Beta analysis. Our results indicate that the year 2020 is an outlier in the Okun relationship. However, the direction of change is different...

We develop a utility and asset pricing theory that features a novel measure of tail risk. Our model determines investor demand for both left and right-tail risk premia from an indifference curve incorporating tolerance for variance and tail risk. We show that the systematic tail risk factors...

Economic uncertainty is a powerful force in the modern economy. Research shows that surges in uncertainty can trigger business cycles, bank runs and asset price fluctuations. But where do sudden surges in uncertainty come from? This paper provides a data-disciplined theory of belief formation...

Log-concavity and log-convexity play a key role in various scientific fields, especially in those where the distinction between exponential and non-exponential distributions is necessary for inferential purposes. In the present study, we introduce a testing procedure for the tail part of a...

In this research, we employ a full-range tail dependence copula to capture the intraday dynamic tail dependence patterns of 30 s log returns among stocks in the US market in the year of 2020, when the market experienced a significant sell-off and a rally thereafter. We also introduce a...

In this article, we investigate the validity of diversification effect under extreme-value copulas, when the marginal risks of the portfolio are identically distributed, which can be any one having a finite endpoint or belonging to one of the three maximum domains of attraction. We show that...

The constantly expanding losses caused by frequent natural disasters pose many challenges to the traditional catastrophe insurance market. The purpose of this paper is to develop an innovative and systemic trigger mechanism for pricing catastrophic bonds triggered by multiple events with an...

This article contributes to the quantification of systemic risk within the Moroccan banking system, focusing on listed banks. We utilize indicators derived from Tail Value at Risk and expectiles risk measures, as introduced by El qalli and Said (2013) (El Qalli & Said, 2023), to measure the...

We analyse the effect of COVID-19 on the Okun's law relationship for several EU countries and the US. Results are based on regressions and a systematic DF-Beta analysis. Our results indicate that the year 2020 is an outlier in the Okun relationship. However, the direction of change is different...

Cryptocurrencies are said to be very risky, and so are the currencies of emerging economies, including the South African rand. The steady rise in the movement of South Africans' investments between the rand and BitCoin warrants an investigation as to which of the two currencies is riskier. In...