Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...

This report presents an analysis of the Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan's (CBA) communication framework and offers recommendations for enhancement. The technical assistance mission, led by the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department, aimed to modernize the CBA's communication...

We study the evolution of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy since July 2021, following the adoption of a new strategy and amid a period of volatile inflation. Utilizing text analysis, we assess changes in the general sentiment of the ECB's communication. Additionally, we employ...

This paper investigates the responsiveness of US equity sectors to the sentiments conveyed by the speeches of the governors of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed). Using principal component analysis of the scores of four Lexicon dictionaries to analyze speeches from June 1, 1996, to September 30,...

Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank's introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a...

This paper examines the impact of political polarization on public trust in the Fed and its influence on macroeconomic expectations. Using a large-scale survey experiment which we fielded on President Trump’s 2025 inauguration day, we study how households form beliefs about the Fed regarding...

The problem of political abstention of voters leaves democratic institutions without content. That is why the role of political communication in the context of the essential development of democracy is becoming very relevant today. We are interested in how deliberative communication, as a model...

When communicating numeric estimates with policymakers, journalists, or the general public, experts must choose between using numbers or natural language. We run two experiments to study whether experts strategically use language to communicate numeric estimates in order to persuade receivers....

This paper focuses on computational reproducibility and robustness replicability of Gubler et al.'s(2022) studies which examine the effect of media messages on empathic concern, dissonance, and out-group policy attitudes. The original paper tests four hypotheses using two online experiments with...

When communicating numeric estimates with policymakers, journalists, or the general public, experts must choose between using numbers or natural language. We run two experiments to study whether experts strategically use language to communicate numeric estimates in order to persuade receivers....

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

As central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), adopt climaterelated responsibilities, gauging public support becomes essential. Drawing on a June 2023 Bundesbank household survey, we find that 69% of households report increased trust in the ECB due to its climate actions, valuing...

This paper introduces a novel database of text features extracted from the speeches of 53 central banks from 1996 to 2023 using state-of-the-art NLP methods. We establish four facts: (1) central banks with floating and pegged exchange rates communicate differently, and these differences are...

This study examines the impact of populism on central bank communication, with a focus on theoretical developments and the specific case of Hungary. Populism, characterised by the opposition between ‘the pure people’ and ‘the corrupt elite’, challenges traditional institutions, including...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of the media transmission channel of the Federal Reserve (Fed) communication with the general public. Spanning a 20-year period (2003-2023), around 5,400 Fed communication documents and 333,000 articles from USA Today are analyzed. A positive and...

This report provides evidence-based insights and recommendations on how public communicators can strengthen democracies by navigating (new) information ecosystems in ways that earn the trust of citizens. At a time when trust in government is increasingly important to democracy, the report aims...

Transparency in the work of central banks has become one of the key features of monetary policy. Because of this, many economists have diverted to finding the most suitable way to measure it. Although a unique method of measurement has yet to be achieved, there are various studies in the...

Central bank communication plays a crucial role in the conduct of monetary policy, yet the research on central bank communication, while growing, is still scarce. In this paper, we analyze the communication reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) through topic-based indices derived...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

We study the strategic interaction between candidates to office and the print media, exploring the following tension: while the media is instrumental for candidates to communicate with voters, candidates and media outlets have conflicting preferences over the contents of media reporting. We...

The study explores the impact of central bank communications on a range of macro-financial indicators. Specifically, we examine whether information posted on the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website influences foreign exchange (FX) markets and the inflation expectations of experts. Our main...

How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total N = 9500), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy....

This paper describes the process of constructing a dataset of available online press releases related to monetary policy decisions published by central banks that have been pursuing a form of inflation targeting. A total of 3,807 documents were considered, as the review encompasses 24 central...

This paper focuses on computational reproducibility and robustness replicability of Gubler et al.'s(2022) studies which examine the effect of media messages on empathic concern, dissonance, and out-group policy attitudes. The original paper tests four hypotheses using two online experiments with...

We depart from the common reaction function-based approach used to infer central bank preferences. Instead, we extract the tone from the textual information in the central bank communication using both a lexicon-based approach and a language model. We combine the tone with real-time information...

This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households’ medium-term inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of 4,000 German households at the height of the recent inflation surge in early 2023, with...

This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households' mediumterm inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of 4,000 German households at the height of the recent inflation surge in early 2023, with...