This study examines how demographic changes lead to different household structures and housing choices among different age groups. It argues that the cointegration of demography, housing market, and wealth have shaped housing demand in the country over time. The results have important often...

Existing nationwide population projections focus on highly aggregated spatial units. The most disaggregated nationwide study is provided by the German Federal Institute for Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Research (BBSR) and forecasts population at the county level until 2040 (BBSR, 2021)....

Using a highly stylized dynamic microsimulation model, we project the labor force of the United States up to the year 2060 and contrast these projections with projections for Germany to assess differential effects on outcomes The projections are consistent with the U S Census Bureau’s and...

Population projections are predominantly made using the cohort-component method (CCM). The opportunities for further development within that framework are limited. Lately, with advances in technical and computational capacity, the microsimulation framework has become a serious contender. In...

Existing nationwide population projections focus on highly aggregated spatial units. The most disaggregated nationwide study is provided by the German Federal Institute for Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Research (BBSR) and forecasts population at the county level until 2040 (BBSR, 2021)....

This paper studies the impact of demographic trends on the effectiveness of monetary policy. I propose and quantify a novel channel to explain how population aging might affect the transmission of monetary policy and the flattening of the Phillips curve: older individuals devote a larger share...

Demographic microsimulation is a computationally-intensive tool used by population scientists to model demographic processes, gain insights into life course transitions and make projections (Zagheni, 2015). In microsimulation models, the sequences of events that each simulated person,...

We characterize the relationship between the rent-to-price ratio and house market returns and rent growth in a model where the demographic variable, the middleaged to young ratio, captures the slowly evolving components in the rent-to-price ratio. To document the linkage between demographics and...

The study analyses the demographic changes in five countries of the Western Balkans - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia - which are associated with and are potential candidates for European Union (EU) member states. Due to a lack of data, Kosovo was...

When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed, in...

The future development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for...

We propose new measures of populism based on political parties electoral scores and platforms from the Manifesto Project Database for the period 1960-2018. We then show empirically that over the period considered, the evolution of populism is significantly affected by the extent and skill...

"This book presents a detailed projection model to estimate future demand for care among older people. Using Poland as a case study, the author examines the impact of population ageing and changes in intergenerational relations on informal care provision. The book provides a comprehensive...

In the past 50 years, the world accelerated its transition out of long-term demographic stability. As infant and child mortality rates fell, populations began to soar. In most countries, this growth led to falling fertility rates. Although fertility has fallen, the population continues to...

Which groups in the general US public are more or less authoritarian? This paper reports the demographic correlates of the Brief Authoritarian Scale of Professors Schuman, Bobo, and Krysan. Analyzing data in the leading US academic survey of attitudes, the National Opinion Research Center's...

We assess the evidence on the contribution of changes in the population age structure to the changing fortunes of youths in labor markets in advanced economies over the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, and use this evidence to project the likely effects of future cohort sizes on youth labor...

The present national population of Papua New Guinea (PNG) is not known. There is no official estimate of the population of the country in 2020 and figures by others are usually between 8 and 9 million people. Our purpose is to make estimates of the likely range of population more readily...

This paper reviews and analyzes forecasts of the Social Security trust funds, government spending, medical expenditures, and other elements of aggregate income and spending. According to these forecasts, the aging of the U.S. population will require some increases in taxes to support the...

We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global imbalances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 countries, we measure the compositional effect of aging:...