Climate change is associated with an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, which can severely reduce people's welfare, especially in the Global South. Here, we analyse the impacts of rainfall shocks - including lacking and excessive rains - on economic and social outcomes, using...

Reducing poverty and improving the living standards of the poor and vulnerable populations in Sri Lanka have been one of the country's key goals. The government has designed poverty-targeting programs with relevant government agencies working to support low-income families. The programs include...

One challenge presented by population aging is how to adjust public support for social care in a way that achieves desired quality of life outcomes without compromising budget sustainability. This study uses best-practice methods of economic analysis to explore projections for care and related...

Public works programmes (PWPs) are widely used social protection instruments in low- and middle-income countries. Participants carry out temporary, labour-intensive works in exchange for cash or in-kind compensation. The available empirical evidence indicates that these programmes are usually...

The transition to parenthood is a critical period that exacerbates gendered economic inequality, with mothers more likely than their partners to experience employment disruptions and income losses. This study examines individual poverty risk among partnered indivduals (N=1,237) in Germany from a...

Theoretical analysis, empirical development and case studies show that room to manoeuvre stabilising macroeconomic policies during the COVID-19 crisis in the years 2020 and 2021 were fundamentally different in the Global South and Global North. The latter used extensive discretionary fiscal and...

This paper assumes two kinds of social planners who evaluate income distributions concerning social welfare, economic inequality and poverty. The first kind of social planner, SPε , comprises averters to income inequality as measured by the normative parameter ε. The second kind of social...

This paper utilises distributional random forests as a flexible machine learning method for analysing income distributions. Distributional random forests avoid parametric assumptions, capture complex interactions among covariates, and, once trained, provide full estimates of conditional income...

Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate change. It faces frequent cyclones, floods, and droughts while having limited revenue collection capacity and social protection programmes. This paper assesses the distributional effects of climate shocks on household consumption and explores adaptation...

This paper examines the role of social protection in mitigating the adverse effects of conflict on household welfare. We assess the impact of a graduation intervention linked to Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme, focusing on Amhara, a region severely affected by the Tigray conflict....

Despite high inflation, the real gross hourly wages of employees grew by around 15 percent from 1995 to 2022. In particular, the lowest wage decile caught back up to all other deciles following a sharp drop in real wages. At the same time, the low-wage sector has shrunk by nearly five percentage...

I investigate the intra-household labor and resource allocation consequences of an employment guarantee targeting rural households in India. The guarantee insures household earnings, replacing women as added workers and shutting down a motive for saving. Despite sizable program-job take-up, the...

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the social security system and transfer expenditures in Türkiye in combating poverty. Social security systems aim to reduce the effects of poverty by ensuring that individuals meet their basic needs. Transfer expenditures in Türkiye, while...

The study evaluates the effectiveness of Iranian government subsidies for households by comparing the welfare impact of food price shocks with the subsidy payments they receive. This helps us assess the government's efforts to reduce poverty in Iran. The household income and expenditure survey...

The Philippine government's long-term vision, AmBisyon Natin 2040, aims for a prosperous, predominantly middle-class society where no one is poor. The Philippine Development Plan 2023- 2028 emphasizes strategies to develop and protect individual and family capabilities by reducing...

The Philippines has set an ambitious goal of becoming a predominantly middle-class society free of poverty by 2040. However, this aspiration comes at a time of significant global headwinds that pose risks to the country's development trajectory. Growing the middle class is more closely related...

We investigate the impact of a large-scale poverty alleviation program targeted at 62 poorest districts in Vietnam, analyzing multiple datasets spanning the past 20 years with a regression discontinuity design with district fixed effects. While we do not find significant program effects on...

Household consumption or income surveys do not typically cover refugee populations. In the rare cases where refugees are included, inconsistencies between different data sources could interfere with comparable poverty estimates. We test the performance of a recently developed cross-survey...

Existing data are severely insufficient for monitoring progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly for poorer countries. While we should continue efforts to produce new, high-quality data, this approach seems not feasible for all poorer countries. We call for a more...

Existing data are severely insufficient for monitoring progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly for poorer countries. While we should continue efforts to produce new, high-quality data, this approach seems not feasible for all poorer countries. We call for a more...

Using panels of labour force surveys from Ghana, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and India and a recent work status classification, we provide an in-depth analysis of labour mobility up or down the job ladder. This classification allows us to observe job transition possibilities across six work...

The world has faced an increasing number of global shocks that have resulted in large and unpredictable changes in global prices, particularly of food. These increases, coupled with the negative impacts of shocks to economic growth, have had damaging effects on welfare, hunger, and diets. Future...