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Year of publication
Subject
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Prediction market 358 Prognosemarkt 337 Theorie 172 Theory 172 Forecasting model 139 Prognoseverfahren 139 Experiment 102 Börsenkurs 101 Share price 101 Financial market 76 Finanzmarkt 76 Anlageverhalten 72 Behavioural finance 72 Wertpapierhandel 59 Securities trading 58 Agent-based modeling 53 Agentenbasierte Modellierung 53 Bubbles 52 Spekulationsblase 52 Efficient market hypothesis 50 Effizienzmarkthypothese 50 Marktmechanismus 41 Market mechanism 40 Economic forecast 31 Wirtschaftsprognose 31 Deutschland 29 Germany 29 Aktienmarkt 27 USA 27 United States 27 Gambling 26 Glücksspiel 26 Election 24 Wahl 24 Stock market 23 Voting behaviour 23 Wahlverhalten 23 Informationsverhalten 22 Market microstructure 22 Marktmikrostruktur 22
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Online availability
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Free 133 Undetermined 84 CC license 4
Type of publication
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Article 192 Book / Working Paper 182 Journal 2
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 121 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 121 Graue Literatur 94 Non-commercial literature 94 Working Paper 81 Arbeitspapier 80 Aufsatz im Buch 55 Book section 55 Hochschulschrift 25 Thesis 19 Collection of articles written by one author 8 Sammlung 8 Aufsatzsammlung 7 Collection of articles of several authors 4 Sammelwerk 4 Systematic review 4 Übersichtsarbeit 4 Accompanied by computer file 2 Article 2 Elektronischer Datenträger als Beilage 2 Konferenzschrift 2 Case study 1 Conference proceedings 1 Fallstudie 1 Forschungsbericht 1 Rezension 1
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Language
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English 339 German 23 Undetermined 14 French 1
Author
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Wolfers, Justin 40 Zitzewitz, Eric 32 Snowberg, Erik 22 Palan, Stefan 10 Cheung, Stephen L. 9 Leigh, Andrew 8 Huber, Jürgen 7 Spann, Martin 7 Borghesi, Richard 6 Kirchler, Michael 6 Schmidt, Carsten 6 Weber, Matthias 6 Duffy, John 5 Ehrentreich, Norman 5 Lugovskyy, Volodymyr 5 Noussair, Charles 5 Porter, David P. 5 Skiera, Bernd 5 Tucker, Steven 5 Al-Ubaydli, Omar 4 Alfarano, Simone 4 Andraszewicz, Sandra 4 Baghestanian, Sascha 4 Corgnet, Brice 4 Füllbrunn, Sascha 4 Hein, Oliver 4 List, John A. 4 Puzzello, Daniela 4 Raberto, Marco 4 Schram, Arthur 4 Schröder, Jan 4 Siemroth, Christoph 4 Sornette, Didier 4 Wu, Ke 4 Bisière, Christophe 3 Bolle, Friedel 3 Brandouy, Olivier 3 Chen, Shu-Heng 3 Chen, Yiling 3 Choo, Lawrence 3
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Institution
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National Bureau of Economic Research 7 Uniwersytet Warszawski / Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych 2 AE <2005, Lille> 1 Department of Economics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech) 1 Dipartimento di Economia e Management, Università degli Studi di Trento 1 Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena 1 Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration 1 Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) 1 Max-Planck-Institut zur Erforschung von Wirtschaftssystemen / Abteilung Strategische Interaktion 1 Sonderforschungsbereich Quantifikation und Simulation Ökonomischer Prozesse 1 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 1 Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) 1
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Published in...
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The journal of prediction markets 20 Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 12 SpringerLink / Bücher 9 Discussion paper series / IZA 7 NBER Working Paper 7 NBER working paper series 7 Artificial economics : agent-based methods in finance, game theory and their applications 6 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 6 IZA Discussion Paper 5 Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems : LNEMS 5 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 4 ESI working papers 4 Journal of Prediction Markets 4 Management science : journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 4 Advances in artificial economics : the economy as a complex dynamic system; with 30 tables 3 Applied economics letters 3 Artificial economics : the generative method in economics ; [Artificial Economics Conference 2009] 3 Bank- und Finanzwirtschaftliche Forschung: Diskussionsbeiträge des Lehrstuhls für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Finanzwirtschaft, Universität Bamberg 3 CESifo working papers 3 European economic review : EER 3 Experimental economics : a journal of the Economic Science Association 3 Jena economics research papers 3 Journal of economic interaction and coordination : JEIC 3 Papers on strategic interaction 3 SAFE working paper 3 Surveys in experimental economics : bargaining, cooperation and election stock markets ; with 58 tables 3 Working papers 3 Working papers / Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research 3 BestMasters 2 Computational economics 2 Developments on experimental economics : new approaches to solving real-world problems 2 Digital Designs for Money, Markets, and Social Dilemmas 2 Economic theory : official journal of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory 2 Economics : the open-access, open-assessment e-journal 2 European journal of operational research : EJOR 2 Finanzintermediation : theoretische, wirtschaftspolitische und praktische Aspekte aktueller Entwicklungen im Bank- und Börsenwesen : Festschrift für Professor Dr. Wolfgang Gerke zum sechzigsten Geburtstag 2 Forschungspapiere 2 Gabler Edition Wissenschaft 2 International review of financial analysis 2 Journal of Economics and Finance 2
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 357 RePEc 16 EconStor 3
Showing 1 - 50 of 376
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How manipulable are prediction markets?
Rasooly, Itzhak; Rozzi, Roberto - 2025
In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015372547
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Prediction Markets, the True Value of the Revolving Door and the US Cabinet
Koch, Benjamin; Luechinger, Simon; Moser, Christoph - 2024
We estimate the value of the revolving door for firm executives and directors joining the cabinets of the Trump I and Biden administrations. By combining intraday stock and prediction market data, we take the degree of anticipation of political appointments into account and we offer estimates...
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Learning from the past : the role of personal experiences in artificial stock markets
Lenhard, Gregor - 2024
Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014490050
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Prediction markets, the true value of the revolving door, and the US cabinet
Koch, Benjamin; Lüchinger, Simon; Moser, Christoph - 2024
We estimate the value of the revolving door for firm executives and directors joining the cabinets of the Trump I and Biden administrations. By combining intraday stock and prediction market data, we take the degree of anticipation of political appointments into account and we offer estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015164602
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Price formation in field prediction markets : the wisdom in the crowd
Bossaerts, Frederik; Yadav, Nitin; Bossaerts, Peter L.; … - In: Journal of financial markets 68 (2024), pp. 1-16
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Managing bubbles in experimental asset markets with monetary policy
Hennequin, Myrna; Hommes, Cars H. - In: Journal of money, credit and banking : JMCB 56 (2024) 2/3, pp. 429-454
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When do prediction markets return average beliefs? : experimental evidence
Mantovani, Marco; Filippin, Antonio - 2024
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The role of the end time in experimental asset markets
Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias - In: Journal of corporate finance 88 (2024), pp. 1-14
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Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty
Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2020
To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012231540
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Price Formation in Field Prediction Markets : The Wisdom in the Crowd
Bossaerts, Frederik; Yadav, Nitin; Bossaerts, Peter L.; … - 2022
Prediction markets are a popular structure for a collective intelligence platform. The exact mechanism by which information known to the participating traders is incorporated into the market price is unknown. This paper demonstrates a novel method derived from the Kyle (1985) model for price...
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Arbitrage Bots in Experimental Asset Markets
Angerer, Martin; Neugebauer, Tibor; Shachat, Jason M. - 2022
Trading algorithms are an integral component of modern asset markets. In two experimental markets for long-lived correlated assets we examine the impact of alternative types of arbitrage-seeking algorithms. These arbitrage robot traders vary in their latency and whether they make or take market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013308153
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A Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule Agent-based Model to Evaluate Prediction Markets
V. C. Carvalho, Athos; Silveira, Douglas; Ely, Regis Augusto - 2022
Prediction Markets (PMs) are markets in which agents trade event contingent assets. Enterprises use PMs to forecast revenues and project deadlines. This paper presents an Agent-based model, called Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule-Automated Market Maker (LMSR-ASM), to evaluate Prediction Markets....
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Informational price cascades and non-aggregation of asymmetric information in experimental asset markets
Shachat, Jason M.; Srinivasan, Anand - In: The journal of behavioral finance : a publication of … 23 (2022) 4, pp. 388-407
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Let’s chat… when communication promotes efficiency in experimental asset markets
Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David P. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 70 (2024) 10, pp. 6550-6568
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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets
Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2021
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...
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Sentiment Analysis of Artificial Stock Markets
Di Giuseppe, Michael - 2021
This study will examine a dataset that contains 352 observations with 36 distinct variables. The dataset reflects people's thoughts and sentiments regarding a realistic fiction stock market game. The reason for analyzing this data is to identify any trends or patterns that might explain why...
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Efficiency testing of prediction markets : martingale approach, likelihood ratio and Bayes factor analysis
Richard, Mark; Večeř, Jan - In: Risks : open access journal 9 (2021) 2/31, pp. 1-20
This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the...
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The role of the end time in experimental asset markets
Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias - 2021
By now there are hundreds of scientific articles on experimental asset markets. Almost all of these experiments use a short and definite horizon. This may be one of the starkest differences to financial asset markets outside the laboratory, which usually have indefinite and comparatively long...
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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2021
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013317671
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Trading institutions in experimental asset markets : theory and evidence
Guler, Bulent; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2021
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A culture of greed : Bubble formation in experimental asset markets with greedy and non-greedy traders
Hoyer, Karlijn; Zeisberger, Stefan; Breugelmans, Seger M.; … - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 212 (2023), pp. 32-52
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A logarithmic market scoring rule agent-based model to evaluate prediction markets
Carvalho, Athos V. C.; Silveira, Douglas; Ely, Regis Augusto - In: Journal of evolutionary economics 33 (2023) 4, pp. 1303-1343
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Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty
Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 14 (2020) 2020-20, pp. 1-53
To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012233309
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Experimental Asset Markets with An Indefinite Horizon
Duffy, John - 2020
We study indefinitely-lived assets in experimental markets and find that the traded prices of these assets are on average about 40% of the risk neutral fundamental value. Neither uncertainty about the value of total dividend payments nor horizon uncertainty about the duration of trade can...
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Improving Decisions With Market Information : An Experiment on Corporate Prediction Markets
Dianat, Ahrash - 2020
We conduct a lab experiment to investigate an important corporate prediction market setting: A manager needs information about the state of a project, which workers have, in order to make a state-dependent decision. Workers can potentially reveal this information by trading in a corporate...
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The 'Write' Size of Trading Behavior : Overconfidence, Prices, and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets
Bogan, Vicki L. - 2020
This study analyzes the role that overconfidence plays in investor trading behavior. Using a unique measure of confidence (signature size) with an experimental economics approach, we find that those who are more confident bid significantly higher for assets in simulated trading exercises. This...
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Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
Liu, Laura - 2020
We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/regions. At the core of our model is a specification that assumes that the growth rate of active infections can be represented by autoregressive fluctuations around a downward...
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Panel forecasts of country-level Covid-19 infections
Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank - 2020
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Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
Liu, Laura - 2020
We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/regions. At the core of our model is a specification that assumes that the growth rate of active infections can be represented by autoregressive fluctuations around a downward...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012481831
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Let's chat ... when communication promotes efficiency in experimental asset markets
Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David P. - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012209325
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Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
Angelini, Giovanni - 2020
We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We show this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when...
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The Wisdom of the Crowd and Prediction Markets
Dai, Min - 2020
Thanks to digital innovation, the wisdom of the crowd, which aims at gathering information (e.g. Wikipedia) and making a prediction (e.g. using prediction markets) from a group's aggregated inputs, has been widely appreciated. An innovative survey design, based on a Bayesian learning framework,...
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Arbitrage in political prediction markets
Stershic, Andrew; Gujral, Kritee - In: The journal of prediction markets 14 (2020) 1, pp. 69-104
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Market Efficiency and Continuous Information Arrival : Evidence from Prediction Markets
Docherty, Paul - 2019
Two regularities in financial economics are that prices underreact to news events and that they display short-term momentum. This paper tests for the presence of these regularities in prediction markets offered by the betting exchange Betfair on the 2008 Ryder Cup Golf Competition. Betfair...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012905940
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Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty
Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2019
To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set -up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012001782
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Behavioural effects and market dynamics in field and laboratory experimental asset markets
Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Sornette, Didier - 2019
A vast literature investigating behavioural underpinnings of financial bubbles and crashes relies on laboratory experiments. However, it is not yet clear how findings generated in a highly artificial environment relate to the human behaviour in the wild. It is of concern that the laboratory...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012001796
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Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets
Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2019
Markets are increasingly used as information aggregation mechanisms to predict future events. If policy makers make use markets, parties may attempt to manipulate the market in order to influence decisions. We experimentally find that policymakers could still benefit from following information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012136908
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The emergence of markets and artificial market experiments
Taniguchi, Kazuhisa - In: Digital Designs for Money, Markets, and Social Dilemmas, (pp. 223-240). 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013363377
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Default agent set for artificial futures market simulation
Nakajima, Yoshihiro; Mori, Naoki; Aruka, Yūji - In: Digital Designs for Money, Markets, and Social Dilemmas, (pp. 251-270). 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013363380
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Agent-based artificial financial market with evolutionary algorithm
Chen, Yan; Xu, Zezhou; Yu, Wenqiang - In: Economic research 35 (2022) 1,5, pp. 5037-5057
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014413977
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Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets
Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 68 (2022) 9, pp. 6716-6732
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013373101
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Testing market regulations in experimental asset markets : the case of margin purchases
Füllbrunn, Sascha; Neugebauer, Tibor - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 200 (2022), pp. 1160-1183
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013389390
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Over-the-counter versus double auction in asset markets with near-zero-intelligence traders
Lu, Dong; Zhan, Yaosong - In: Journal of economic dynamics & control 143 (2022), pp. 1-24
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013539524
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Prediction markets and poll releases : when are prices most informative?
Brown, Alasdair; Reade, J. James; Vaughan Williams, Leighton - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011988144
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Mind, body, bubble! : psychological and biophysical dimensions of behavior in experimental asset markets
Butler, David J.; Cheung, Stephen L. - 2018
Asset market bubbles and crashes are a major source of economic instability and inefficiency. Sometimes ascribed to animal spirits or irrational exuberance, their source remains imperfectly understood. Experimental methods can isolate systematic deviations from an asset's fundamental value in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011870688
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On booms that never bust : ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles
Corgnet, Brice; Hernán González, Roberto; Kujal, Praveen - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012030198
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The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets
Dai, Min; Jia, Yanwei; Kou, Steven - In: Journal of econometrics 222 (2021) 1,2, pp. 561-578
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On the observational implications of knightian uncertainty
Hassett, Kevin A.; Zhong, Weifeng - In: The B.E. journal of theoretical economics 21 (2021) 1, pp. 115-147
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Price probabilities : a class of Bayesian and non-Bayesian prediction rules
Massari, Filippo - In: Economic theory 72 (2021) 1, pp. 133-166
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012589951
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Improving decisions with market information : an experiment on corporate prediction markets
Dianat, Ahrash; Siemroth, Christoph - In: Experimental economics : a journal of the Economic … 24 (2021) 1, pp. 143-176
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