Using a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we estimate a causal 20 percent pass-through from inflation expectations to income growth expectations for the average consumer, with considerable heterogeneity in pass-through associated with sociodemographic factors. The results...

When inflation picks up, central banks are most concerned that the de-anchoring of inflation expectations and the ignition of wage-price spirals will trigger inflation dynamic instability. However, such scenarios do not materialize in the standard New Keynesian theoretical framework for monetary...

Elevated inflation can threaten the credibility of central banks and increase the risk that inflation expectations do not remain anchored. Wage-price spirals might develop in such an environment, and high inflation could become entrenched. We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral...

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through - the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation - is small: 0.11-0.17 for firms and 0.03-0.07 for...

Inflationary processes are closely linked to wage-price spirals - such spirals can be triggered by many factors, including natural resource price shocks, depreciation and inflationary demand. Empirically, the correlation between changes in nominal unit labour costs and the price level is strong...

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for...

Gegenstand der vorliegenden Analyse ist die Frage, wie Lohn-Preis-Spiralen die makroökonomische Stabilität und Inflationsentwicklung in Deutschland beeinflussen und in welcher Form sie auftreten können. Im Jahr 2023 wird die Inflation von binnenwirtschaftlichen Preistreibern verursacht....

"Concentrated market power and the weakened sway of corporate stakeholders over management have emerged as leading concerns of American political economy. Samuel Milner provides a historical context for contemporary efforts to resolve these anxieties by examining the contest to control the...

Structural reforms in the liquidity trap need not be deflationary. This paper develops a simple framework to study the role that key characteristics of Japan's labor and product markets-labor-market duality and weak corporate governance-play in generating unfavorable wage-price dynamics. The...

Structural reforms in the liquidity trap need not be deflationary. This paper develops a simple framework to study the role that key characteristics of Japan's labor and product markets-labor-market duality and weak corporate governance-play in generating unfavorable wage-price dynamics. The...

The evidence that developments in compensation growth lead overall CPI inflation has thus far been inconclusive. This study, however, sheds new light on the relationship between labor costs and price inflation. By breaking down compensation and prices into their various components, the author...

This paper presents new evidence on the patterns of price and wage adjustment in European firms and on the extent of nominal rigidities. It uses a unique dataset collected through a firm-level survey conducted in a broad range of countries and covering various sectors. Several conclusions are...

The “cost-push” view of the inflation process implies that higher wage growth leads to higher future inflation, notwithstanding the nature of Federal Reserve policy and the inflation regime. I test this implication using wage-price data over the sample period 1952Q1–1999Q2, during which...

We derive aggregate supply (AS) relationships for an intermediate-run macro model. The wage-price spiral provides the conceptual framework for a synthesis of different contesting theoretical and empirical perspectives on the AS curve: the Phillips curve model (PCM) and the wage-price equilibrium...

This paper investigates the persistence of aggregate wages and prices in Portugal assuming a model of a unionized economy with imperfect competition. An impulse response analysis is conducted where the structural shocks are identified by taking into account the long-run properties of the model,...

This paper analyzes wage- and price-setting relations in new EU member countries. Panel estimates indicate a strong and significant relationship between real wages and labor productivity, as well as evidence of wage pass-through to inflation. Terms of trade shocks do not feed through to real...

This paper analyzes wage- and price-setting relations in new EU member countries. Panel estimates indicate a strong and significant relationship between real wages and labor productivity, as well as evidence of wage pass-through to inflation. Terms of trade shocks do not feed through to real...

Using quarterly time-series data for a sample of twelve industrial countries, the paper investigates the dynamics of nominal wage and price adjustments in the face of aggregate demand shocks. The evidence illustrates patterns of the wage-price spiral and accompanying fluctuations. During...