We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...

This paper provides a critical assessment of the new EU fiscal framework, with a focus on its implications for public expenditure on the twin green and digital transition. According to the reformed rules, member states may commit to a package of investment and reform to extend the fiscal...

We aim to analyze the potential positive or negative effects of public expenditure on economic growth, as well as their determinants. To this goal, we use a simple theoretical model, which has the specificity to distinguish between public investment and consumption expenditure, and which could...

We assess the relevance of macro rates of return on time-varying fiscal and external sustainability. First, we compute the total public and private macroeconomic rates of return for 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2022. We find that there is a positive impact of higher investment returns on...

The purpose of this study is to find out the impact of public investment on private investment in the localities of the Mekong Delta Key Economic Region and the Central Key Economic Region. Using data on public investment (state sector's investment) and private investment (non-state sector's...

This paper takes stock of the implementation of the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) programme in the euro area four years after its inception, focusing on its principal instrument, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The paper provides an updated quantitative assessment of its past and future...

A general conception is that investment induces economic growth, but there is still debate over which type of investment contributes more to economic growth. The disaggregation of investment into public and private components allows estimation of the impact of the two types of investments on...

We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure - electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that US$1 million of public spending on infrastructure...

This paper studies the long-run effects of government-led construction of manufacturing plants on the regions where they were built and on individuals from those regions. Specifically, we examine publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security...

This paper examines the macroeconomic returns on public and private investments in 18 advanced economies from 1965 to 2019, using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. We assess whether higher investment levels drive economic growth and explore the interplay between public and private...

This paper analyzes the growth impact of public and private investment shocks based on a large sample of emerging and developing countries over the period 1980-2021 with a particular focus on the Asian region. We develop new measures of investment shocks based on cyclically adjusted investment...

The zero lower bound era introduced a new perspective on the functionality of fiscal rules. With such low interest rates, the argument goes, extending debt financed public investment spending would be reasonable and thus existing fiscal rules too restrictive. Using data of Swiss cantonal public...

In the low inflation and low interest rate environment that prevailed over the period 2013-2020, many argued that besides expansionary monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy could also support central banks' efforts to bring inflation closer to target. During the pandemic, proper alignment...

When deciding on the social desirability of public investment, the cost of a project is sometimes adjusted by a factor known as the Marginal Cost of Public Funds (MCPF) which captures the cost of raising public funds through distortionary taxation. However, there is no scholarly consensus on...

This study examines the impact of public investment on private investment in South Africa using the autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL bounds testing approach for the period from 1980 to 2018. The ARDL results show that public investment crowds in private investment in the...

In this paper, we examine the impact of institutional quality on the returns on key drivers of economic growth in 230 European Union (EU) NUTS-2 regions from 2009 to 2017. To estimate region-specific elasticities, we employ a latent class modelling approach, considering the quality of government...

This paper presents a comprehensive framework examining fiscal sustainabil- ity in developing economies. It integrates public capital, labor informality, and global liquidity shocks in a two-sector DSGE model for a small open economy, revealing their intricate interplay and nonlinear impact on...

Fiscal rules are a frequent policy measure to restrict deficit-taking among incumbent politicians. In times of increased and sustained investment needs to mitigate the consequences of climate change, and to promote the digital and structural transformation, fiscal rules have become subject to...

Public investment spending declined steadily in advanced economies during the last three decades. Germany is a case in point where the aggregate decline coincided with growing inequality in investments across districts. What explains the variation in local investment spending? We assembled a...

We construct a narrative instrument for government investment from official records in Germany. Using structural vector autoregressions, we document a significant crowding-in of private investment and an output multiplier of roughly 2. Then, we match a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general...

The article documents the construction of a narrative instrument for government investment, used in the paper 'An Estimation and Decomposition of the Government Investment Multiplier'.

An IMF team found that the State of Odisha had an overall public investment management (PIM) system that compared well with other emerging market economies, reflecting in particular strong institutions at the execution stage, which have helped the State increase significantly its public...

This How to Note discusses how low-income developing countries (LIDCs) can strengthen the effectiveness and efficiency of their public investment. The note draws on Public Investment Management Assessments and focuses on eight institutions that are likely to be key reform priorities in many...

Der Bundeshaushalt muss Zukunftsinvestitionen stärker priorisieren. Darüber besteht in der Theorie ein weit reichender Konsens. In der haushaltspolitischen Praxis ist es hingegen schwierig, dieses Ziel durchzusetzen. Ausgaben mit einem unmittelbaren Gegenwartsnutzen erfahren regelmäßig hohen...

Saudi Arabia has mixed expectations ahead of Donald Trump’s imminent second presidency. On the one hand, the royal family maintains close business relations with the president-elect and his entourage, which could lead to privileged access to the White House. On the other hand, Trump’s Middle...

We assess the relevance of macro rates of return on time-varying fiscal and external sustainability. First, we compute the total public and private macroeconomic rates of return for 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2022. We find that there is a positive impact of higher investment returns on...