This paper aims to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the theories and concepts that have formed the foundational link between two separate academic fields: finance and economics, resulting in the emergent field of financial economics. The main schools of thought can be divided, with a...

In the long run, we are all dead. Nonetheless, when studying the short-run dynamics of economic models, it is crucial to consider boundary conditions that govern long-run, forward-looking behavior, such as transversality conditions. We demonstrate that machine learning (ML) can automatically...

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model,...

Using a novel and unique panel dataset of individual-level professional forecasts at short, medium, and very-long horizons, we provide new stylized facts about survey forecasts. We present direct evidence that forecasters use multivariate models in an environment with imperfect information about...

We examine how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including regional Fed presidents, shape private sector expectations. Speeches that signal rising inflationary pressures prompt both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, consistent...

We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that...

We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectations-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an...

I examine whether individuals' subjective unemployment expectations and self-insurance behavior are systematically related to unemployment experiences within their social networks. Using a combination of survey-elicited subjective unemployment expectations and Danish administrative data, I...

Building on a New Keynesian rational expectations framework, we develop a structural empirical model that jointly determines the real exchange rate, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in a small open economy. Employing a full-information system design and estimation approach that avoids...

Professional forecasters' long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias-which generates persistent forecast errors across most...

We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation....