This paper analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find that positive copper price changes resulting from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion, with no visible decline in...

This research explores the effects of significant global economic shocks, such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, on GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. Employing a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model, the analysis highlights...

There is extensive evidence of the impact of natural resource windfalls on violence. However, most of the literature focuses on civil conflict and civil wars and less is known about how resource booms affect other forms of violence and crime. In this paper, I examine the impact of Mexico’s...

It has often been argued that countries that produce natural resources mobilize less non-resource tax revenues than other countries. In this paper, we exploit the exogenous variation in the timing of giant oilfield discoveries to estimate the causal impact of natural resources on taxation. The...

Petroleum-producing countries face unique challenges in meeting global emissions targets. As global petroleum consumption declines, these nations must reallocate resources and phase out a historically profitable industry. This study examines Norway's economic transformation resulting from a...

This paper investigates the similarities between the economy of 1912 Mount Lebanon on the eve of the famine of 1916 and the economy of 2004 Lebanon that set the stage for the major economic and social crisis of 2019. A simple general equilibrium simulation shows that, as long as the Lebanese...

The topic of natural resources has been widely discussed since the negative relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth was empirically proved. Many scientists believe that this negative relationship is caused by institutional factors presented in a country rich in...

We examine the relevance of Dutch Disease through the lens of an open-economy multisector model that features unemployment due to labor market frictions. Bayesian estimates for the model quantify the effects of both business cycle shocks and structural changes on the unemployment rate. Applying...

Extensive economic literature has covered the effect of a natural resource boom on the performance of the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the Dutch Disease hypothesis establishes that increases in commodity prices should lead to a decrease in manufacturing exports, due to significant inflows...

The evidence suggests that resource-rich countries tend to exhibit a relatively constant level of economic complexity, with limited progress. To investigate the underlying causes of this phenomenon, we employed a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model using data from the top 20 resource-rich economies...

This study examines the intricate relationship between natural resource abundance, with a specific focus on oil production, and its impact on economic growth in Ghana. Through the application of the robust Fully Modified OLS methodology and using data spanned from 1960-2021 the research...

Because excessive specialization can be risky, diversification matters for sustainable development. A case study of Madagascar, this paper begins by briefly discussing economic and institutional diversification and presenting a simple model of production possibilities to illuminate the possible...

I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. I develop a sovereign default model with production of tradable and non-tradable goods, and endowments of commodities. Default incentives increase when more capital is...

This How to Note provides operational guidance for policymakers and IMF staff teams on designing-or revising-a fiscal strategy in resource-rich countries (RRC). Properly managed, resource revenue can support fiscal sustainability and development and equity objectives. Resource revenues also...

The aims of this paper are twofold. It firstly identifies and discusses the extent to which public revenues from natural resources are adequately captured in existing cross-country revenue databases, before exploring the extent to which such data can be used to estimate countries' fiscal...

Resource abundance characterizes economies within the MENA region from North Africa to the Middle East. As such, to improve financial development (FD) for regional economic sustainability, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the roles of natural resources abundance and institutional...