This paper introduces a novel approach to decomposing consumer price inflation. Expanding upon the established decomposition method for the value-added deflator, our methodology combines the cost structure of the consumption expenditures from the input-output table with quarterly national...

We employ Synthetic Control Method techniques to estimate the causal effect of Brexit on the consumer price index (CPI) in the United Kingdom. We construct a counterfactual CPI index from a weighted pool of comparable economies and find that the price level of the United Kingdom rose...

The consumer price index (CPI) plays a critical role in measuring inflation. Recent inflation trends, however, have raised questions about its accuracy. This paper evaluates several of these critiques, including that the CPI fails to keep up with rapid changes in consumer expenditure patterns;...

Housing rents are one of the most important and difficult elements of spatial cost of living comparisons. Difficulties arise from the lack of sufficiently detailed and harmonized data, especially at the international level. The emergence of Airbnb has created a valuable new source of...

This study examines the effectiveness of using webscraped data to predict price developments in the Austrian food retail sector. We calculate monthly nowcasts of price changes based on daily price data collected by the OeNB since mid-2020, using Eurostat methodology for price index calculation,...

This paper studies the effects of country-specific energy prices on food consumer price inflation (CPI) within a cross-country Phillips curve framework. It considers a panel of 36 OECD member and candidate economies using quarterly data from the start of 1994 to the end of 2021. We find that...

Energy inflation is a major source of headline inflation volatility and forecast errors, therefore it is critical to model it accurately. This paper introduces a novel suite of Bayesian VAR models for euro area HICP energy inflation, which adopts a granular, bottom-up approach - disaggregating...

This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial crisis. The standard VAR model revealed that...

By comparing the Bundesbank's BOP-HH and the ECB's CES-ECB household panel surveys focusing on inflation perceptions and expectations with omnibus surveys conducted in Germany in December 2021 and 2022, this paper examines potential sample selection bias stemming from (i) individuals'...

This study examines whether portfolio optimization can be effectively based on annual changes in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) data. Specifically, we assess whether asset allocation based on consumer expenditure can generate superior returns compared to static or equal-weighted...

Inflation is the percentage change in the CPI over a given period of time. It is usually calculated over a year (year-on-year inflation) and over a month (month-to-month inflation). Even if prices are not currently rising from month to month, the year-to-year inflation rate could still be...

The rise in inflation in recent years triggered a cost-of-living crisis, in which households' ability to afford basic necessities declined. The cost-of-living crisis disproportionately affected lower income households, with the proportion in material deprivation (i.e. unable to afford basic...

New data sources are now available in many countries to supplement direct collection of prices for the consumer price index (CPI). This technical assistance mission supported the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova with incorporating scanner data from the State Tax Service...

A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by the statistics department of the IMF in May 2023 to assist the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) with updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Preliminary consumer basket was created during the mission with expanded coverage, and...

The Greek government has provided substantial support to households to cope with the high cost of living in 2022-2023. This paper leverages on the rich micro-level data on household consumption in the Household Budget Survey to study the distributional impact of price increases. Policy...

The HICP Methodological Manual represents a comprehensive overview of methods that are used in the compilation process for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP). The manual intends to be a practical guide to all steps necessary to produce an HICP and is thus useful for statisticians who...

This study analysis, commissioned by the European Parliament's Policy Department for Citizens' Rights and Constitutional Affairs at the request of the FEMM Committee, scratched the surface of the hidden face of the gendered impact of the rising cost of living and the ongoing energy crisis in the...