This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole...

The current inflationary period has placed the spotlight on hunger and food insecurity, as the current Philippine Development Plan has strongly emphasized the attainment of food affordability for all Filipinos. This study offers a scenario analysis using computable general equilibrium modeling...

It has become widely acknowledged that the looming climate crisis and the necessary transition to a low-carbon economy can and will be financially material for financial institutions. Accordingly, microprudential supervisors have started including climate-related financial risks in their daily...

Various stakeholders are increasingly encouraging companies from the real economy to adopt measures facilitating their transition towards carbon neutrality. In this context, companies are expected to implement forward-looking strategies and climate-related reporting practices using scenario...

Scenarios and pathways, as defined and used in the "SSP-RCP scenario framework", are key in last decade's climate change research and in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this framework, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) consist of a limited set of...

Digital money and digital payments innovations have the potential for improving cross-border payments by reducing costs, enhancing speed, and improving transparency. This note performs an empirical analysis of the potential impact of digital money on the volume and transaction costs of...

The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Victoria, Seychelles, from May 2 to 17, 2023, assisted authorities with macroprudential stress testing and climate risk analysis. The stress testing focused on strengthening the solvency and liquidity frameworks: (i) for solvency, considering...

Commercializing technologies from universities is often hindered by insufficient resources, prolonged development cycles, and limited industry engagement. A Technology Transfer Office (TTO) typically supports these efforts, yet many initiatives still fail without an effective strategy. This...

Risk analysis and scenario testing are two of the core activities carried out by economists at central banks. With the increasing adoption of machine learning to enhance decision-support systems, and the amount of collected data spiking, institutions provide countless use-cases for the...

This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

This feasibility study investigates the utilization of the Integration of EDGAR and POLES (EDGAR-POLES) model to assess future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios within energy-related sectors, focusing on the impact of alternative energy scenarios options from the POLES model. With the aim...

This analytical report provides an overview of cyber-enabled hybrid interference in the Western Balkans, along with recommendations on how to improve approaches to effectively counter these threats. To this end, the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) designed and conducted a...

Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires tailored approaches for each sector, with an in-depth assessment of the technical, political, and social feasibility of relying on an emissions trading system (ETS). - To ensure a cohesive decarbonisation strategy, interaction effects between the EU...

This report describes the POTEnCIA CETO 2024 Scenario, which showcases how the deep decarbonisation of the EU's energy system can be achieved from an energy technology perspective in alignment with the general objectives of the European Climate Law. The scenario has been modelled using the...

A foresight study on school education (ISCED levels 1-3) in the EU, which aimed at developing four scenarios, describing potential alternative futures of the school education in the EU by 2040, identifying the preferred scenario developments and providing recommendations on the policy measures...