In practice, most computers generate simulation outputs sequentially, so it is attractive to analyze these outputs through sequential statistical methods such as sequential probability ratio tests (SPRTs). We investigate several SPRTs for choosing between two hypothesized values for the mean...

Investors decide the best time to take a given action by maximizing their utility function while taking into account current information and the underlying process in the optimal stopping model. Option pricing, sequential analysis, disorder problems, and other problems requiring time...

High labor turnover imposes costs on a firm and hinders the accumulation of human capital. In an increasingly competitive market, retaining competent employees is a necessity. To avoid excessive labor turnover, it is necessary to identify which characteristics influence career pathways for...

This represents the original developments of Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers in the class of solutions that generalise SMC filtering methods to the case of a fixed state-space. This makes such methods exact and applicable for Bayesian inference in context otherwise typically treated by Markov...

High labor turnover imposes costs on a firm and hinders the accumulation of human capital. In an increasingly competitive market, retaining competent employees is a necessity. To avoid excessive labor turnover, it is necessary to identify which characteristics influence career pathways for...

The Gini index, a widely used economic inequality measure, is computed using data whose designs involve clustering and stratification, generally known as complex household surveys. Under complex household survey, we develop two novel procedures for estimating Gini index with a pre-specified...

The Gini index, a widely used economic inequality measure, is computed using data whose designs involve clustering and stratification, generally known as complex household surveys. Under complex household survey, we develop two novel procedures for estimating Gini index with a pre-specified...

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used for non-linear filtering purposes. Nevertheless the SMC scope encompasses wider applications such as estimating static model parameters so much that it is becoming a serious alternative to Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Not only SMC...

In this paper, the world distribution of personal incomes (WDPI) is estimated using a global sample comprising country sample clones. A clone is a random sample that reproduces – with predetermined high probability and precision – an unknown survey sample using information that is 'encoded'...

In this paper, the world distribution of personal incomes (WDPI) is estimated using a global sample comprising country sample clones. A clone is a random sample that reproduces – with predetermined high probability and precision – an unknown survey sample using information that is 'encoded'...

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used for filtering purposes of non-linear economic or financial models. Nevertheless the SMC scope encompasses wider applications such as estimating static model parameters so much that it is becoming a serious alternative to Markov- Chain...

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used for filtering purposes of non-linear economic or financial models. Nevertheless the SMC scope encompasses wider applications such as estimating static model parameters so much that it is becoming a serious alternative to Markov- Chain...

There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit root tests into the analysis of exchange rates bubbles. We find strong evidence of explosive behavior in the nominal Sterling-dollar...

There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit root tests into the analysis of exchange rates bubbles. We find strong evidence of explosive behavior in the nominal Sterling-dollar...

We propose a density-tempered marginalized sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, a new class of samplers for full Bayesian inference of general state-space models. The dynamic states are approximately marginalized out using a particle filter, and the parameters are sampled via a sequential Monte...

This paper describes the out-of-equilibrium approach to the analysis of economic processes. We argue that such an approach is adapted to study qualitative (or structural) changes, like technical progress or changes in preferences. Truly sequential analyses manage to capture the essential...

This paper describes the out-of-equilibrium approach to the analysis of economic processes. We argue that such an approach is adapted to study qualitative (or structural) changes, like technical progress or changes in preferences. Truly sequential analyses manage to capture the essential...

We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic volatility and unknown stock appreciation rate. The volatility parameter is driven by an external economic factor modeled as a diffusion process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type with unknown...

There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. Standard unit root and cointegration tests are criticized for their low power to detect rational bubbles that periodically collapse. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit...

In a MOOC environment, each student's interaction with the course content is a crucial clue for learning analytics, which offers an opportunity to record learner activity of unprecedented scale. In online learning, the educators and the administrators need to get informed with students' learning...

This paper computes the semiparametric efficiency bound for finite dimensional parameters identified by models of sequential moment restrictions containing unknown functions. Our results extend those of Chamberlain (1992b) and Ai and Chen (2003) for semiparametric conditional moment restriction...

This paper computes the semiparametric efficiency bound for finite dimensional parameters identified by models of sequential moment restrictions containing unknown functions. Our results extend those of Chamberlain (1992b) and Ai and Chen (2003) for semiparametric conditional moment restriction...

Sequential procedures of testing for structural stability do not provide enough guidance on the shape of boundaries that are used to decide on acceptance or rejection, requiring only that the overall size of the test is asymptotically controlled. We introduce and motivate a reasonable criterion...

A methodology based on adaptive likelihood ratios (ALRs) for the detection of emerging disease clusters is presented. The martingale structure of the regular likelihood ratio is preserved by the ALR. The upper limit for the false alarm rate of the proposed method depends only on the quantity of...

This article reviews so-called screening in simulation; i.e., it examines the search for the really important factors in experiments with simulation models that have very many factors (or inputs).The article focuses on a most e¢ cient and e¤ective screening method, namely Sequential...

Following the 2000 stockmarket crash, have US interest rates been held "too low" in relation to their natural level? Most likely, yes. Using a structural neo-Keynesian model, this paper attempts a real-time evaluation of the US monetary policy stance while ensuring consistency between the...

The aim of the study is to analyse the sequential paraverbal communication used while teaching by expert and novice PE teachers. Four expert and four novice teachers were observed using a coding scheme of paraverbal behavior. The detection of temporal patterns using Theme v.5 enabled sequential...