Building upon the argument that factor endowments influence distributional outcomes, this paper examines the consequences of the China shock to global food markets for economic inequality in Brazilian municipalities from 1985 to 2020. I propose a new identification strategy that exploits...

This paper examines the resilience of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Fiji against the economic impacts of major shocks including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and climate-related hazards, using a survey of 2,400 MSMEs from early 2023. The analysis focuses on...

This paper studies the effects of key underlying macroeconomic variables on the trend inflation rate in the USA. To do so, we consider eight structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy and that can be regarded as the main structural determinants of the...

This study examines whether trade competition from low-wage countries (LWCs) can influence immigration patterns in an advanced economy. We focus on Italy between 2003 and 2013, a period characterized by rising market pressure from China and Eastern Europe. Using census data on sectoral...

This research employs a quadratic exponential model to examine the dynamics of fiscal adjustments in the context of oil shocks. The findings suggest significant state dependence, with past fiscal adjustments increasing the likelihood of future adjustments and an asymmetry in oil shock effects....

This paper uses a vulnerability-based approach to analyze the evolution of the middle class in Europe between 2005-08 and 2015-18. The analysis reveals that, on average, the income level needed to ensure a low probability of falling into poverty-also understood as the vulnerability...

This report focuses on Japan's experiences to showcase how the country incrementally strengthened the resilience of its health system by enhancing its capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from crises, drawing valuable lessons from its experience of major earthquakes, floods, and...

Climate change is associated with an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, which can severely reduce people's welfare, especially in the Global South. Here, we analyse the impacts of rainfall shocks - including lacking and excessive rains - on economic and social outcomes, using...

Families play an important role in providing insurance against adverse shocks, but little is known about how shocks affect the family structure itself. We study the impact of a labor market shock on divorce and intra-household allocation of resources, exploiting a naturalexperimental earthquake...

In conventional proxy VAR analysis, the shocks of interest are identified by external instruments. This is typically accomplished by considering the covariance of the instruments and the reduced-form residuals. Alternatively, the instruments may be internalized by augmenting the VAR process by...

This study addresses a theoretical gap by examining how multiple livelihood assets collectively enhance rural communities' adaptive capacity and contribute to rural resilience theory. Using structural equation modeling, data were collected from June to August 2024 from 372 randomly selected...

This study investigates the disconnect between falling agricultural commodity prices and persistent food inflation by applying a Heterogeneous Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to a panel of 203 countries using data from 1961 to 2022. It analyzes the impact of global crops, fertilizer, and oil...

The global cocoa trade network is highly concentrated. The top 5 producers account for 75 percent of exports. Although recent research shows that agricultural trade was resilient to the 2020 pandemic, cocoa is one of the most affected goods. This paper estimates the effects of international...

We propose a new model in which relationship-specific supply and demand shocks are non-parametrically identified in bipartite data under mild assumptions. For example, separate heterogeneous supply shocks are identified for each firm to which a bank lends. We show that a simple estimator is...

We use narrative monetary policy shocks and local projections to estimate the impact of monetary policy on consumption and investment. We use granular data to investigate how the response varies across consumption categories, investment types, and sectors. Our findings indicate that both...