There are at least three existential challenges to contemporary societies, as we know them namely first, the complete rupture of the social pact which characterized Glorious Decades after WWII in most of Western societies; and second, the deepening of the patterns of informatization and...

Controversy is vital in the pursuit of knowledge. Constructive dispute can drive intellectual growth and deepen understanding within a field. However, mutual respect, thorough engagement, and intellectual humility are necessary for productive exchanges. In this vein, I clarify in my response to...

We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and does not generate short-term gains. In equilibrium,...

In a recent article, Tom Palley begins his critique of Keynesian economics with the well-known story of a drunkard who, when searching for his lost keys, looks not in the darkness of the nearby lawn where he misplaced them, but instead under the light cone of a lamp post because, when asked, he...

Wars fueled by resource wealth pose complex challenges for conflict resolution. I combine data on conflict events, rebel resource dependence, world market prices, and ceasefire details to investigate how fluctuations in rebel funding affect the likelihood of ceasefires. Increased funding...

There are at least three existential challenges to contemporary societies, as we know them namely first, the complete rupture of the social pact which characterized Glorious Decades after WWII in most of Western societies; and second, the deepening of the patterns of informatization and...

How do large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) increase the risk of conflict, and what kind of policies can mitigate this effect? We address these questions with a systematic and policyoriented synthesis of prior research. First, we suggest a simple conceptual framework linking LSLAs to social...

Social conflict pervades human society and fulfils a number of essential functions in its development and transformation, including the creation of new norms and institutions. The Historical Social Conflict Database (HiSCoD) is an ongoing project designed to provide to scholars and society at...

We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and does not generate short-term gains. In equilibrium,...

Controversy is vital in the pursuit of knowledge. Constructive dispute can drive intellectual growth and deepen understanding within a field. However, mutual respect, thorough engagement, and intellectual humility are necessary for productive exchanges. In this vein, I clarify in my response to...

In a post land reformenvironment, violence and redistribution are substitutes for an opportunistic incumbent attempting industrialization. We setup a theoretical model to explore this relationship for individual and group level violence across two types of policy driven post...

We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world-Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)-affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not...

Violent conflicts act as disincentives for sustainable socioeconomic development in conflict-prone societies, especially in the Global South. Existing studies focus largely on economic, political, and social triggers of violent conflicts; cultural factors, while important, are often not...

Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) significantly impact women and girls, exacerbating gender-based violence and limiting access to rights and services due to weakened institutions. Positive changes can emerge from crises, providing opportunities to reshape social norms and empower women....

This study examines whether the adoption of the 'Burmese Way to Socialism' philosophy by Myanmar's military regime affected employment opportunities in non-agriculture sectors and created jobs equitably for the Burmese majority and other ethnic minorities. The econometric analyses of two...

This paper investigates whether social media access is associated with increased probability or intensity of ethnic conflict in Myanmar. In this context most people use mobile phones, and particularly the Facebook app, to access the internet. To distinguish the effects of social media from those...

Prevailing approaches to understanding Islamist mobilisation struggle to explain why militant Islamist movements in Libya initially spread rapidly after 2011 and then disappeared almost overnight. Their decline poses a puzzle for conventional analyses. Tactical choices, such as the search for...

We model a rent-seeking contest among two 'identity ideologues', differentially located along a uni-dimensional identity continuum, and a 'mercenary', who can choose any location in-between. The contest jointly awards an identity-relevant good ('religion') and an identity-irrelevant good...

This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting...

This study shows that civilians' behavior can be severely affected by territorial control by an insurgent group, and that these effects can persist after the government regains control and the occupation ends. I consider a framework of civilian behavior under insurgent rule, where civilians have...

Ensuring a safe environment for children to learn is more than a mission for the WorldBank. It is an urgent imperative. In large part, the success of our FCV Strategy is predicated on education. There are few spheres of development with so much potential to contribute to violence prevention and...

We model a rent-seeking contest among two "identity ideologues", differentially located along a uni-dimensional identity continuum, and a "mercenary", who can choose any location in-between. The contest jointly awards an identity-relevant good ("religion") and an identity-irrelevant good...

We propose a theory of protest dynamics with heterogeneous protest technology and intensity. The ability to mobilize online reduces the likelihood of coordination failures at both the extensive (engagement) and intensive (violence) margins. Social media can initially help launch massive...

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the “defund the police” movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the wage polarization in Italy, combining individual characteristics with their task content in terms of physical proximity within the workplace. We use an innovative dataset which combines data from two sample surveys,...

It is widely accepted that episodes of social unrest, conflict, political tensions and policy uncertainty affect the economy. Nevertheless, the real-time dimension of such relationships is less studied, and it remains unclear how to incorporate them in a forecasting framework. This can be partly...

Driftet die Arbeitsgesellschaft immer mehr auseinander, ist ihr Zusammenhalt zunehmend gefährdet? Zentrale Befunde der soziologischen Arbeitsforschung wie »Entgrenzung«, »Prekarisierung« oder »Fragmentierung« legen dies nahe und weisen auf gesellschaftliche Fliehkräfte und Desintegration...

Climate change and the increasing demand of water intensify the global water cycle, altering the distribution of water in space and time. This is expected to result in wet areas getting wetter and dry areas getting drier (Pan et al., 2015). As water is key to life, water scarcity is likely to...