Algorithms are increasingly used to aid with high-stakes decision making. Yet, their predictive ability frequently exhibits systematic variation across population subgroups. To assess the trade-off between fairness and accuracy using finite data, we propose a debiased machine learning estimator...

This paper uses distribution-free formulas for the asymptotic variances of sample quantile income shares - as typically published by statistical agencies as measures of the distribution of income inequality - to calculate how large a survey sample must be in order to estimate a more refined...

Algorithms are increasingly used to aid with high-stakes decision making. Yet, their predictive ability frequently exhibits systematic variation across population subgroups. To assess the trade-off between fairness and accuracy using finite data, we propose a debiased machine learning estimator...

This paper introduces Parameter Estimation by Raw Moments (PERM), a flexible method for evaluating a policy's impact on the parameters of an outcome distribution. Such parameters include the variance (E[Y 2 ]−E[Y] 2 ), skewness and covariance of two outcomes. PERM simplifies distributional...

This paper proposes a subsampling inference method for extreme conditional quantiles based on a self-normalized version of a local estimator for conditional quantiles, such as the local linear quantile regression estimator. The proposed method circumvents difficulty of estimating nuisance...

We develop an indirect inference approach relying on a linear supply and demand model serving as an auxiliary model to provide the first full empirical test of the rational expectations commodity storage model. We build a rich storage model that incorporates a supply response and four structural...

The most widely used textbooks on Introductory Econometrics conflate three distinct population parameters: the population regression function (PRF), the conditional expectation function (CEF), and the causal effect. They also incorrectly suggest, and sometimes state, that the Conditional Mean...

Standard methods for constructing error bands around impulse response functions consider them in isolation, neglecting the estimation uncertainty that arises across variables and time horizons due to the joint nature of the underlying structural parameters. For example, one approach to assessing...

A unified theory of estimation and inference is developed for an autoregressive process with root in (-∞, ∞) that includes the stationary, local-to-unity, explosive and all intermediate regions. The discontinuity of the limit distribution of the t-statistic outside the stationary region and...

We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretation of a policy question—affect the variation in estimated treatment effects. A total of 146 research teams each completed the same...

Ibragimov, Kattuman, and Skrobotov (Econometric Reviews, 2025) propose a "t-statistic" approach to inference for inequality indices building on results provided by Ibragimov and Müller (Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2010), and they and Midões and de Crombrugghe (Journal of...

We study the estimation of causal treatment effects on demand when treatment is randomly assigned but prices adjust in response to treatment. We show that regressions of demand on treatment or on treatment and price lead to biased estimates of the direct treatment effect. The bias in both cases...

We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective function. The (bounding) χ2 limiting distribution of the DRLM statistic is robust to both misspecification and weak identification,...

Given data on a scalar random variable 𝑌, a prediction set for 𝑌 with miscoverage level 𝛼 is a set of values for 𝑌 that contains a randomly drawn 𝑌 with probability 1 − 𝛼, where 𝛼 ∈ (0, 1). Among all prediction sets that satisfy this coverage property, the oracle...

Star variables, such as potential output and the neutral real interest rate, are fundamental to economic policymaking but challenging to identify due to their latent nature. Buncic, Pagan, and Robinson (2023) highlight the difficulty of identifying star variables within short macroeconomic...

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in some time periods, time-varying nonstationarity (i.e., unit...

A statistical decision rule is a mapping from data to actions induced by statistical inference on the data. We characterize these rules for data that are chosen strategically in persuasion environments. A designer wishes to persuade a decision maker (DM) to take a particular action and decides...

Background Earlier studies have estimated the impact of increased body mass index (BMI) on healthcare costs. Various methods have been used to avoid potential biases and inconsistencies. Each of these methods measure different local effects and have different strengths and weaknesses. Methods In...

This study's main purpose is to use Bayesian structural time-series models to investigate the causal effect of an earthquake on the Borsa Istanbul Stock Index. The results reveal a significant negative impact on stock market value during the post-treatment period. The results indicate rapid...

We study the application of approximate mean field variational inference algorithms to Bayesian panel VAR models in which an exchangeable prior is placed on the dynamic parameters and the residuals follow either a Gaussian or a Student-t distribution. This reduces the estimation time of possibly...

Building on the sequential identification result of Aguirregabiria and Mira (2019), this paper develops estimation and inference procedures for static games of incomplete information with payoff‐relevant unobserved heterogeneity and multiple equilibria. With payoff‐relevant unobserved...

This paper considers the problem of deriving heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference about a scalar parameter of interest. The main assumption is that there is a known upper bound on the degree of persistence in data. I derive finite‐sample optimal tests in the Gaussian...

Forest degradation by fires is growing in a fast pace in the Brazilian portion of the Amazonian rainforest, damaging the regional environment and economy. Seeking to measure the impact of such process on rainfall, the paper analyses a wide diversity of fine-grained satellite measurements with...

We study the application of approximate mean field variational inference algorithms to Bayesian panel VAR models in which an exchangeable prior is placed on the dynamic parameters and the residuals follow either a Gaussian or a Student-t distribution. This reduces the estimation time of possibly...