We propose the double robust Lagrange multiplier (DRLM) statistic for testing hypotheses specified on the minimizer of the population continuous updating objective function. The (bounding) χ2 limiting distribution of the DRLM statistic is robust to both misspecification and weak identification,...

This paper focuses on the estimation and testing of multiple breaks that occur at unknown dates in multivariate long memory time series regression models, allowing for fractional cointegration. A likelihood-ratio based approach for estimating the breaks in the parameters and in the covariance of...

To address a key issue in functional time series analysis on testing the randomness of an observed series, we propose an IID test for functional time series by generalizing the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) test, which is commonly used for testing nonlinear independence. Similarly to the BDS...

Spatial unit roots can lead to spurious regression results. We present a brief overview of the methods developed in Müller and Watson (2024) to test for and correct for spatial unit roots. We also introduce a suite of Stata commands (-spur-) implementing these techniques. Our commands exactly...

Researchers may want to know whether an observed statistical relationship is either meaningfully negative, meaningfully positive, or small enough to be considered practically equivalent to zero. Such a question can not be addressed with standard null hypothesis significance testing, nor with...

This report is part of the 2-year exploratory research project MITICA (MonItoring Transport Infrastructures with Connected and Automated vehicles). It presents the experimental loading testing undertaken on the Reinforced Concrete (RC) platform that represents the full-scale bridge-like...

Purpose - This study aims to find suitable replacements for hypothesis testing and variable-importance measures. Design/methodology/approach - This study explores under-used predictive methods. Findings - The study's hypothesis testing can and should be replaced by predictive methods. It is the...

We present a statistical test for the long-term calibration in rating systems that can deal with overlapping time windows as required by the guidelines of the European Banking Authority (EBA), which apply to major financial institutions in the European System. In accordance with regulation,...

Under the revised market risk framework of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, the model validation regime for internal models now requires that models capture the tail risk in profit-and-loss (P&L) distributions at the trading desk level. We develop multi-desk backtests, which...

Pre-registration is regarded as an important contributor to research credibility. We investigate this by analyzing the pattern of test statistics from the universe of randomized controlled trials (RCT) studies published in 15 leading economics journals. We draw two conclusions: (a)...

We develop a new permutation test for inference on a subvector of coefficients in linear models. The test is exact when the regressors and the error terms are independent. Then we show that the test is asymptotically of correct level, consistent, and has power against local alternatives when the...

This paper reconsiders the question of testing for the presence of Pareto suboptimal capital overaccumulation in overlapping generations economies. The paper allows generation‐specific technology shocks to evolve over time according to a stationary Markov chain, and assumes that an...

We review tests of null hypotheses that consist of many subsidiary null hypotheses, including tests that have not received much attention in the econometrics literature. We study test performance in the context of specification testing for linear regressions based on a Monte Carlo study....

In economics and finance, speculative bubbles take the form of locally explosive dynamics that eventually collapse. We propose a test for the presence of speculative bubbles in the context of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. The test exploits the fact that bubbles are...

All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non-Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct...

Evaluating policy in imperfectly competitive markets requires understanding firm behavior. While researchers test conduct via model selection and assessment, we present the advantages of Rivers and Vuong (2002) (RV) model selection under misspecification. However, degeneracy of RV invalidates...

I refine the test for clustering of Patton and Weller (2022) to allow for cluster switching. In a multivariate panel setting, clustering on timeaverages produces consistent estimators of means and group assignments. Once switching is introduced, we lose the consistency. In fact, under switching...

Researchers utilizing regression discontinuity design (RDD) commonly test for running variable (RV) manipulation around a cutoff, but incorrectly assert that insignificant manipulation test statistics are evidence of negligible manipulation. I introduce simple frequentist equivalence testing...