Explaining President Trump's "Liberation-day" tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump's chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair "burden sharing"(Miran: 2025). History shows that this...

Trump's renewed tariffs on traditional allies-including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil-signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is...

The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90...

This paper constructs a two-country model to investigate how tariff policy influences productivity growth through adjustments in industry location patterns. The locations of production and innovation are determined based on trade barriers and imperfect knowledge dissemination. Tariff policy has...

Bei der Erläuterung von Präsident Trumps "Befreiungstag"-Zöllen vom 2. April 2025 schlug Stephen Miran, Präsident Trumps Vorsitzender des Rates der Wirtschaftsberater, vor, dass Länder die US-Zölle ohne Vergeltungsmaßnahmen akzeptieren, um zu einer fairen "Lastenteilung" zu kommen (Miran:...

Explaining President Trump's "Liberation-day" tariffs on April 2nd, 2025, Stephen Miran, President Trump's chairman of the council of economic advisors suggested that countries accept the U.S. tariffs without retaliation to come to a fair "burden sharing"(Miran: 2025). History shows that this...

Trump's renewed tariffs on traditional allies-including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil-signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is...

The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90...

This study applies the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) to the Asian Development Bank's Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) dataset to estimate global demand and supply elasticities across intermediate vs. final, and domestic vs. foreign sectors. Using pooled data from 2021-2023,...

Recent evidence shows that imports of critical products can be concentrated on a small number of supplier countries. Such supplies are therefore vulnerable to disruption, whether because unfriendly governments seek to weaponize dependency or for other reasons. In a laissez-faire equilibrium,...

In 2011, the American Economic Association (AEA) changed its peer review policy for all their journals, shifting from a double-blind process to a single-blind peer-review process. Under this new system, referees became aware of the authors' identities. In this paper, I explore whether this...

This Policy Brief explores the potential impact of forming a customs union between the European Union (EU) and key global partners (e.g. Canada, the UK, Mexico and Japan) as a strategic response to U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs. Using the GSIM partial equilibrium model, the...

This policy brief examines European and US economic expertsʼ expectations and recommendations for tariffs on US, EU, and global imports at the end of 2025, as collected in the latest wave (2025Q2) of the Economic Expert Survey. The results show that economic experts in Europe expect...

US trade policy has taken a sharp turn away from multilateralism, with sweeping new tariffs posing a serious threat to global supply chains. As the US remains the EU’s largest export market for goods, these measures carry significant repercussions for the bloc. Exports to the US are heavily...

This study explores the role of tariffs in addressing the Dutch Disease effect in resource-rich developing economies. By developing a theoretical framework built on existing literature, the study explores the role that the structure of taxes, internationally, can play in mitigating the adverse...

Imports feature at all stages of production as well as in final consumption, and this is key to how tariff shocks play out. If imposed on imports in upstream sectors, import tariffs lower domestic output in downstream sectors; if imposed downstream, they raise upstream production. The aggregate...

What is the optimal monetary policy response to tariffs? This paper explores this question within an open-economy New Keynesian model, characterizes the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, and shows that the optimal monetary policy response is expansionary, with inflation rising above and beyond...

The new US administration has a clear agenda of reducing imports to the US and attract FDI by reducing tariffs and using the proceeds for supporting investment in the US. This paper uses a dynamic two country US vs RoW model where monopolistically competitive firms make export and FDI decisions....

Amid the evolving U.S.-China tariff realignment and the broader restructuring of global value chains, this paper evaluates the vulnerability and strategic positioning of the Philippines alongside four other ASEAN economies-Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. For the ASEAN-5, the key...

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a wide-ranging set of "reciprocal tariffs" against many of its trading partners. The calculation of these tariffs have elicited a largely negative reaction in part due to the simple formula used to calculate them. In this note, I provide a model...

We develop a dynamic multi-country Ricardian trade model with aggregate uncertainty, where trade imbalances emerge as countries exchange goods and assets. We introduce a method for computing counterfactuals in this setting, which doesn't require specifying the stochastic process of shocks or...

As a growing number of countries face rising tariffs in 2025, stablecoins may be the answer to geoeconomic fragmentation by providing solutions that enhance trade efficiency in response to protectionist policies and regional alliances. While the United States leverages stablecoins to reinforce...

A major section of the existing literature on strategic trade policy, following a partial equilibrium framework, observed that imposition of tariff by the domestic country leads to a rise in their wage level. Analysis on the impact of strategic trade policy intervention (tariff) on wages and...