This study applies the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) to the Asian Development Bank's Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) dataset to estimate global demand and supply elasticities across intermediate vs. final, and domestic vs. foreign sectors. Using pooled data from 2021-2023,...

The United States (US) and European Union (EU) are at risk of entering a full-blown trade war. Three months ago, on "Liberation Day", US President Donald Trump imposed high import tariffs on almost all countries, including the EU. He then suspended them at short notice to negotiate with over 90...

How do import tariffs affect employment? We develop an empirical strategy to identify the effects of tariffs using difference-in-differences, comparing anti-dumping (AD) investigations resulting in dumping tariffs to those not resulting in dumping tariffs. We find that an AD tariff decreases...

Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war. We estimate a highly flexible demand system to compute household-specific price indexes. The increases in US tariffs on Chinese products between 2018 and 2019 led to an average...

Addressing climate change requires green technology deployment. This paper uses firm-level import data in 35 emerging markets to examine how trade policies affect firms’ imports of products associated with solar, wind power, and electric vehicle value chains. Panel estimates show a...

This brief presents impact assessments of increased tariffs based on simulations using the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) macroeconomic model. The current increases in US import tariffs are shown to reduce aggregate output across all major economic regions. The most pronounced...

In April 2025, the United States abruptly announced exceptionally high tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries (levels not seen in nearly 150 years) shocking the global economy. Within a week, most measures were postponed for 90 days (until July 9, 2025), but tariffs on Chinese goods...

We examine the potential economic impacts of the new United States (US) tariff on Cambodia using a dynamic global general equilibrium model (GTAP-FIN). We simulate the impact of US tariff increases announced in August 2025 while also examining two additional hypothetical cases for Cambodia....

This paper reveals significant errors in a key variable in international trade: tariff rates. The issues arise from incomplete reporting, leading to measurement error from false interpolation by the data provider, the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and selection bias from dropping...

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) are increasingly dealing with challenges shaped by the new geopolitical and trade environments. Besides traditional tariffs, exporting firms need to comply with regulatory non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the form of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary...

Following the upcoming U.S. elections, the EU should prioritize defending the multilateral trade system, as a collapse in global economic cooperation could impact Europe up to four times more than direct U.S. tariffs alone. Potential U.S. trade policies under either a Harris or second Trump...

The recent changes in trade policy have significantly impacted trade flows. There is an ongoing debate on whether and to what extent firms may have also reacted to the new trade barriers by modifying the spatial organization of their multinational production to circumvent them. This paper aims...

Rising globalization has exerted a downward pressure on global tariffs, thereby eroding tariff revenues in developing nations. We analyse how gains from lowering import tariffs are distributed within the firm and the corresponding tax (base) implications. First, we study the effect of tariff...

Against a backdrop of sharply rising inequality, the Tokyo Round of the GATT resulted in a 1.6 percentage point reduction in average US tariffs – larger than CUS-FTA, NAFTA, and the liberalization accompanying the granting of PNTR to China. We construct a novel IV based on the so-called...

This paper first presents a dynamic model that features both real and monetary aspects of international trade and is capable of dealing with both full employment and secular unemployment. The model is then utilized to examine the effect of a tariff on the terms of trade, the trade pattern, real...

This study aims to examine the relationship between customs policy and the economic blocs of which Egypt is a member, with a focus on the theory of New Regionalism and modern trends in customs policies. Egypt joined numerous economic blocs following its accession to the world trade organization...

The trade war between the United States and China since 2008 has opened strategic opportunities to increase the economic market in ASEAN countries. This research aims to answer whether the trade war led to an oligopoly or a systemic market structure as a strategy for increasing demands,...

This paper presents a new measure of aggregate trade restrictions (MATR) using data from the International Monetary Fund's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is strongly correlated with existing measures of trade restrictiveness but is more comprehensive in...

To identify transactions at risk of tariff evasion, this paper matches export transaction data from France with import transaction data from Madagascar using container identifiers. Reporting discrepancies between exporters and importers are prevalent but small, with over two-fifths of importers...

In this paper, we investigate the scale of the drop in American imports after it imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods. Our analysis spans the whole period of Donald Trump's presidency (January 2017 - January 2021). In contrast to existing studies, which are mainly devoted to the impact of...

On 1 January 2024, Switzerland will implement a major trade policy reform by autonomously eliminating all tariffs on imports of industrial products regardless of their origin. After a brief review of the literature on unilateral trade liberalization and the current Swiss tariff landscape, this...