Based on an analysis of changes in the yields of German government bonds, we propose a simple model for the term structure of interest rates and show empirically that this model with two parameters (relating to the interest level and slope of the term structure) fits empirically well the data...

This study develops a model to predict and explain short-term fluctuations in the Brazilian local currency interest rate term structure. The model relies on the potential relationship between these movements and key macroeconomic factors. The methodology consists of two stages. First, the...

We propose a two-step approach to estimate multi-dimensional monetary policy shocks and their causal effects requiring only daily financial market data and policy events. First, we combine a heteroscedasticity-based identification scheme with recursive zero restrictions along the term structure...

We present a unified, market-complete model that integrates both Bachelier and Black- Scholes-Merton frameworks for asset pricing. The model allows for the study, within a unified framework, of asset pricing in a natural world that experiences the possibility of negative security prices or...

This text evaluates the empirical models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR), comparing the resulting estimates regarding goodness-of-fit, robustness to outliers, and smoothness. In addition to the descriptive statistics on these metrics, the Friedman test and the multiple comparison...

We develop a quantity-driven general equilibrium model that integrates the term structure of interest rates with the repurchase agreements (repo) market to shed light on the combined effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the bond and money markets. We characterize in closed form the endogenous...

We estimate a production‐based general equilibrium model featuring demand‐ and supply‐side uncertainty and an endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle fluctuations. Both demand‐ and...

We study the relationship between monetary policy and long‐term rates in a structural, general equilibrium model estimated on both macro‐ and yield‐data from the United States. Regime shifts in the conditional variance of productivity shocks, or "uncertainty shocks," are a crucial driver...

Understanding the impact of changing interest rates onto banks' net interest margin is of central importance for various stakeholders. The primary focus lies often on changes in the interest level. However, changes in the steepness are a second driver which also significantly impacts banks'...

Based on an analysis of changes in the yields of German government bonds, we propose a simple model for the term structure of interest rates and show empirically that this model with two parameters (relating to the interest level and slope of the term structure) fits empirically well the data...

This study examines the relationship between sovereign spreads and banks in terms of risk transmission, using the seven largest Italian banks as a sample over the period from 2003 to 2023. Our objective is to quantify and compare volatility spillovers, and to investigate whether bank-specific...

This International Finance Corporation (IFC) Research Note analyzes the cost of borrowing for firms in emerging and developing economies, changes in their debt structure, and indicators of indebtedness and profitability. It finds reasons for optimism on their resilience, while noting that...

Emerging markets have long been viewed as high-risk destinations for investment, particularly investments in companies. Although macroeconomic and political stability risks are higher, this perception also reflects project-level risks, or uncertainty about repayment prospects. Investors, with...

This paper explores the hypothesis that the returns of asset classes can be predicted using common, systematic risk factors represented by the level, slope, and curvature of the US interest rate term structure. These are extracted using the Nelson-Siegel model, which effectively captures the...

Using high-frequency macro data from a financially deregulated regime, this paper examines whether there is any evidence of financial crowding out in India. The macroeconomic channel through which financial crowding out occurs is the link between the fiscal deficit and the interest rate...

This paper introduces a business cycle model that integrates financial markets and endogenous financial volatility at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB). We derive three key insights: first, central banks can mitigate excess financial volatility at the ZLB by credibly committing to future economic...

This paper models the dynamics of long-term Chinese government bond (CGB) yields based on an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the current short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term CGB yields, after controlling for various macroeconomic...

Certain fixed-income securities, such as callable bonds and mortgage-backed securities subject to prepayment, typically exhibit negative convexity at low yields and cannot be adequately immunized through duration and convexity-matching alone. To address this residual risk, we examine the...

The CDS-bond basis quantifies the difference in risk premia between credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets. It is hard to measure at the individual firm level given substantial missing-value problems (30%-100%) in either or both markets, even for highly liquid blue-chip financial firms. We...